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Trade or Draft: What Every 2022 NBA Lottery Team Should Do with Its Pick

Andy Bailey

With the lottery in the rearview, teams can start to sharpen their strategies before June 23's NBA draft.

They now have a better idea of who might be available when they make their selection (for the Orlando Magic, that's everybody). And if their favorite prospects are gone by the time they're on the clock, they might explore trading the pick.

That's our focus. What will each team in the lottery do with its selection? Draft or trade?

With the latest mock draft from Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman, we'll dive into that question for every squad below. 

1. Orlando Magic: Draft

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With the amount of young talent already on the Magic, there may be a temptation to go star-hunting with the top pick in hand.

The first overall selection, one or two of their intriguing prospects and salary filler could probably land a big-time player and speed up Orlando's "process."

It feels too early for that kind of a win-now move, though. The better path is using the pick on someone who can develop alongside Jonathan Isaac (24 years old), Markelle Fultz (23), Wendell Carter Jr. (23), Franz Wagner (20) and Jalen Suggs (20).

If that player is Auburn's Jabari Smith, as Wasserman suggests it could be, all the better.

Smith has perhaps the sweetest shooting stroke in this class, and that's not just a reference to his 42.0 three-point percentage. He's able to connect on silky turnarounds, fadeaways and pull-ups inside the arc too.

And at 6'10", he can slot in next to Wagner to form a sort of positionless forward combo that would give Orlando's slashing guards room to operate inside and options to kick out to.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Draft

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The Oklahoma City Thunder might be even more motivated than Orlando to make a win-now move.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will turn 24 in July, and though he's given no indication that he's getting antsy, we've seen stars in similar situations push their way to more competitive situations.

Unloading youth and the No. 2 pick to bring in a co-star would be out of general manager Sam Presti's recent character, though. Since he moved Paul George and Russell Westbrook in 2019, Presti has been all-in on a Process-like rebuild that has yielded a treasure trove of picks that every executive in the league would love to have (though maybe not for the cost it took to get them).

Starting to make those picks and seeing what sticks feels like the right play, especially for the selections that land in the top five.

If Chet Holmgren is still on the board at No. 2, adding his rim protection, shooting ability and passing would give OKC one of the most intriguing young cores in the league.

With SGA, Josh Giddey, Aleksej Pokusevski and Holmgren occupying four spots, the amount of size, skill and playmaking on the floor would give coach Mark Daigneault seemingly limitless possibilities on offense.

3. Houston Rockets: Draft

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With three legitimate candidates for the No. 1 pick, this is a great season to land the third selection. And if Paolo Banchero is still available when the Houston Rockets pick, they should be eager to take him.

Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood and even Alperen Sengun figure to soak up a lot of usage next season, but that's no reason to pass on Duke's versatile forward.

Banchero's three-point percentage as a freshman (33.8) leaves a bit to be desired, but his form looks good. And the ability to attack and create for others from the perimeter will force defenders to honor the threat of a drive. That should give him a little extra space for pull-up jumpers.

The concern over having "too many cooks" is fair, but Banchero's skill level is hard to pass up, even if it's for a trade that lands an established talent.

If Rockets coach Stephen Silas can get everyone bought into a team-first concept, a wealth of offensive ability will be just fine.

4. Sacramento Kings: Trade

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This could go either way, but the Sacramento Kings already signaled a shift to more of a win-now philosophy when they traded for Domantas Sabonis in February.

They seem committed to a core with him, De'Aaron Fox and 2021 top-10 pick Davion Mitchell, and the fourth selection in a draft with a three-player top tier probably doesn't push that core into the playoffs (where Sacramento hasn't been since 2006).

Instead of using the pick, the Kings should put it on the trading block, perhaps along with Harrison Barnes (on an $18.4 million salary in 2022-23) and Richaun Holmes ($11.2 million) to see what it can get back.

The West will be crowded next season (as it always is), but Sabonis, strides from Fox (still only 24) and Mitchell and a star or borderline star from a trade could put Sacramento in position for a leap to play-in contention.

The more conservative approach certainly shouldn't be ruled out, though. Holmgren, Smith and Banchero will attract much of the predraft attention, but every year offers opportunities outside the consensus top picks. Jaden Ivey might be one worth taking.

Sacramento may have Fox and Mitchell, but neither is as big as Ivey (6'4"), who might be able to play some 2 (or combo guard) alongside either one. His ability to get to the paint and create for others should be intriguing.

And if the Kings are interested in a bigger wing who can space the floor for Fox, Mitchell and Sabonis, Shaedon and Keegan Murray will likely be available here too.

5. Detroit Pistons: Draft

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The Detroit Pistons' situation looks a lot more like those of the Magic, Thunder and Rockets.

Fresh off a season in which Saddiq Bey (23 years old), Cade Cunningham (20), Isaiah Stewart (20) and Killian Hayes (20) occupied their top four spots for total minutes played, it's clear Detroit is still in the "accumulate assets and develop talent" phase of its rebuild.

And Wasserman's pick for the Pistons, Shaedon Sharpe, fits in just fine.

Because he didn't play a minute in college, there's some mystery surrounding Sharpe, but he's about as complete offensively as an 18-year old can be (as shown in his pro day workout and high school highlights). And his size (6'6") and athleticism make him a good fit in today's increasingly positionless NBA.

Late Lottery

Keegan Murray Associated Press

6. Indiana Pacers: Draft

The Indiana Pacers were on the other end of the aforementioned Sabonis trade, a move that landed them 22-year-old point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Now, building a young core with which to surround Haliburton is the way to go. In fact, if the Pacers make trades, they should probably be along the lines of the Sabonis deal. Look for picks and see what you can get for Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon.

                 

7. Portland Trail Blazers: Trade

Damian Lillard is 31 years old. In a Western Conference perennially loaded with contenders, the Portland Trail Blazers may not have much more time to compete with him as the centerpiece. They need to maximize the roster while he's still in his prime, and packaging the No. 7 pick with some salary could yield a win-now player.

       

8. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers): Trade

After making the playoffs and taking two games off the top-seeded Phoenix Suns, the New Orleans Pelicans should feel intoxicated by the prospect of winning basketball. And adding a returning Zion Williamson and another veteran via trade to last season's top two of Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum should solidify New Orleans' chances of returning to the postseason.

          

9. San Antonio Spurs: Draft

The San Antonio Spurs' season ended in the play-in tournament, which felt appropriate for their two-track rebuild. There's plenty of intriguing young talent on the roster, but veterans Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl made them competitive. Adding a player to the first group, which includes Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Joshua Primo, feels like the right move.

      

10. Washington Wizards: Draft

Adding a veteran to play with Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis makes some sense, but the Washington Wizards seem to have reached their peak with the former as the first option. It's time to prioritize the future, and adding a top-10 pick to Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura would make pivoting into a full rebuild easier.

   

11. New York Knicks: Draft

The New York Knicks' situation feels similar to Washington's. There are solid veterans who've been to the postseason, but it's hard to imagine this group going much further than the first round. Prioritizing youth and looking for prospects who fit alongside 21-year-old RJ Barrett is the way to go.

          

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers): Draft

Much of the analysis on OKC's first pick applies here. The Thunder should be aiming for as much young talent as they can, and two bites at the same draft apple always helps.

      

13. Charlotte Hornets: Trade

With LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges on the roster, the Charlotte Hornets have one of the NBA's more intriguing young duos. The top priority this offseason should be adding a more dynamic center to lineups with those two, and the 13th pick could help them do that.

           

14. Cleveland Cavaliers: Draft

The Cleveland Cavaliers fell short in the play-in tournament, but 44 wins could make it tempting to start making win-now moves. A more cautious approach is the better one, though. Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen are 22 and 24, respectively. Cleveland should use the 14th pick to look for another prospect near their timeline.

   

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