Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Ranking the 10 Biggest NFL Draft Steals of the Past Decade

Ian Wharton

The best part of the NFL draft is the immediate excitement that engulfs each fanbase as it dreams of what the future may bring. That said, the impact of finding a true draft steal feels even greater than that initial buzz.

Over the past decade, Super Bowl runs and some of the best moments in NFL history have been provided by players who could be described as steals in the draft.

Expectations are always high for first- and second-round picks. These players had major exposure in college, and they were scrutinized for months—if not years—prior to the draft. Players taken in the third round and later generally carry much lower expectations as they embark on their professional careers.

With the 2022 NFL draft less than a month away, we're looking back on the past decade to find the 10 biggest draft steals. Players taken in the first two rounds are excluded from this list, since it's harder to qualify them as steals. As impressive as it is for former second rounders like Bobby Wagner and Lavonte David to emerge as Hall of Fame candidates, the players we've identified took unlikelier paths to success.

These steals have made a major mark on the NFL through elite production and timely, jaw-dropping plays. We'll dig into each of the top-10 draft steals, and even have an honorable mention for those just on the outside of the list. The combination of longevity, peak performance, original draft position and overall impact on the league play into where each star lands.

Above-average quarterbacks found outside of the first round have the advantage, but All-Pro nods and Super Bowl MVP winners aren't far behind. We'll also factor in positional importance and how each individual changed how their team operated thanks to their emergence. Each player is listed with the team that originally drafted them, not their current team if they've found a new home.

Honorable Mentions

Ellen Schmidt/Associated Press

There have been many productive players drafted in the third round and later since 2012, so whittling down the list to just 10 didn't feel fair. We had to include 10 more huge NFL draft steals in order to properly recognize the accomplishments of All-Pros, Pro Bowlers and Super Bowl champions. 

Each of these 10 players were on the cusp on inclusion, listed in alphabetical order by last name:

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (pick No. 76 in 2013)

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (pick No. 86 in 2018)

Kevin Byard, S, Tennessee Titans (pick No. 64 in 2016)

Maxx Crosby, Edge, Las Vegas Raiders (pick No. 106 in 2019)

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (pick No. 92 in 2012)

Danielle Hunter, Edge, Minnesota Vikings  (pick No. 88 in 2015)

Matthew Judon, Edge, Baltimore Ravens (pick No. 146 in 2016)

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (pick No. 67 in 2017)

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders (pick No. 76 in 2019)

Darren Waller, TE, Baltimore Ravens (pick No. 204 in 2015)

10. George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

Jed Jacobsohn/Associated Press

Pick No. 146 in 2017

There are so few tight ends who have proved to be reliably unguardable that it may be the position with the largest gap between the good starters and average starters. George Kittle has been a major part of the position's development since being drafted in the fifth round in 2017. The athletic 6'4", 250-pounder has only been slowed by injuries since his rookie season.

Kittle's ability to create after the catch is especially notable for a big man. In 2021, Kittle ranked second among tight ends in yards after catch (YAC) despite missing three games. His presence forces defenses to react to his alignment, and defenders must follow his movements thanks to San Francisco's desire to feed him targets.

After Kittle's emergence in 2018 when his 1,377 receiving yards set the all-time record for receiving yards by a tight end—a number eclipsed in 2020 by Travis Kelce—we saw heavier investments into receiving tight ends like Mike Gesicki, David Njoku, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant and Kyle Pitts. The value of a star at the position is immense, but high-production, standout tight ends are still fairly rare commodities.

Kittle, as a Day 3 pick, is easily a top steal considering how the position is now valued.

9. Fred Warner, LB, San Francisco 49ers

Roger Steinman/Associated Press

Pick No. 70 in 2018

From NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis to Reuben Foster, the 49ers have done well replacing some of the most dynamic linebackers in the NFL. Their latest superstar at the position has been Fred Warner, a mere third-round pick out of BYU. Warner has been incredibly productive since hitting the field, totaling 504 tackles and one All-Pro distinction over four seasons.

The 25-year-old is one of the standards for new-school linebackers. Warner is as comfortable turning his back on the quarterback in coverage as he is running downhill into the trenches. His confidence and consistency unlocked more possibilities for his defensive coordinators than what the vast majority of teams can afford to try.

The 49ers didn't hesitate to extend Warner as soon as they could, rewarding him with a five-year, $95 million deal last summer. His play and than extension have cemented him as one of the cornerstones of the franchise's defense alongside Nick Bosa. In hindsight, Warner would've easily cost a team a high first-round pick if the 2018 draft were to be redone.

8. Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Commanders

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Pick No. 102 in 2012

Drafted to be Robert Griffin III's backup and little else, who would have thought Kirk Cousins would be 10 years into his career with 32,593 yards, 223 touchdowns and just 91 interceptions on his resume? Cousins has his faults and is the poster boy for being good but not impactful enough to get his teams into the Super Bowl mix, but he's also been efficient and consistent throughout his career. For being a fourth-round pick, he's been a marvelous return on investment.

His stint with Washington led to an ugly separation after the two sides couldn't come to terms on a multiyear extension. Both he and the team had justified reasons for their disinterest in continuing long-term, but Washington was never able to replace Cousins with someone better. Since Cousins signed in Minnesota, he's been even better statistically than he was in Washington.

Bad luck has hurt Cousins' ability to win in the playoffs on top of his own ill-timed turnovers and bad decisions. The best team he's ever been on, the 2019 Vikings, ran into the buzzsaw that was the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs. Cousins didn't play well, but Dalvin Cook also totaled 18 yards and the defense was picked apart by Tevin Coleman. 

Could Cousins have pushed the 49ers to a Super Bowl had he signed with them instead of Minnesota in 2018? He's a better version of Jimmy Garoppolo in my eyes. Unfortunately, we may never see Cousins on a better than mediocre team as his career enters its twilight years.

7. Tyrann Mathieu, S, Arizona Cardinals

David Dermer/Associated Press

Pick No. 69 in 2013

The Honey Badger was one of the most memorable and impactful defensive players in college football during the 2010s. His energy was infectious for LSU, and he was an obvious first-round talent on the field. However, he was arrested for possession of marijuana and later said he had regularly used the drug: "I abused myself through marijuana."

The Arizona Cardinals wisely snapped Tyrann Mathieu as the 17th defensive back drafted in the 2013 class. He immediately made an impact as a versatile presence who was lightning quick to find the football. Mathieu earned All-Pro status in his third season and appeared set for a long, dominant career.

A torn ACL in 2015 essentially doomed the rest of his tenure in Arizona, though. He lost some of his explosiveness and was exposed in coverage more than ever. Mathieu had a nice bounce-back season in Houston in 2018 before he fully regained his form in Kansas City in 2019. 

Regardless of Mathieu's next destination, he's served as a face of three different defenses already. He helped the Chiefs win a Super Bowl in 2020 and remains one of the most unique talents in the NFL. 

6. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Pick No. 69 in 2017

Prior to 2021, Cooper Kupp had established himself as a premier slot receiver who could give defenses headaches on critical plays. He was solid but seemed to be capped in his role. After accumulating 3,570 yards in his first four years, though, he broke out for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns on 145 receptions in a monster 2021 season.

It was his first season with more than 94 receptions and just his second 1,000-yard season. His prior limited outputs were partially due to injuries, as he missed eight games in 2018 and one game in 2020. Regardless, Kupp's dominance was undeniable as he played a massive role in Los Angeles' Super Bowl run through this past season's playoffs, too.

The 6'2", 208-pounder has a devastating blend of deep speed, agility on sharp cuts and incredible toughness through contact. He's a magician with the ball in his hands, and he seemingly never drops the ball on key plays. 

There's no question the 2021 AP Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl LVI MVP was a massive third-round steal considering his resume.

5. David Bakhtiari, OT, Green Bay Packers

Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Pick No. 109 in 2013 

A true cornerstone blocker over the past nine years, David Bakhtiari has enjoyed one of the highest peaks possible for an offensive tackle. Aaron Rodgers' blindside protector entered the league as a fourth-round selection, and the fact he turned into a three-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro member has been a godsend for the Green Bay Packers.

Bakhtiari was known for his elite pass blocking and durability up until the end of 2020 when he suffered a torn ACL. He missed all but one game in 2021 because of a nightmare knee injury, but he plans to be back to full strength in 2022. Prior to this injury, he missed just six games in seven seasons.

Getting Bakhtiari back to his prime form will be imperative for the Packers to reach their own peak in 2022. Just 30 years old, only health can slow Bakhtiari's reign as one of the elite left tackles. 

Either way, he's proved himself to be an immensely valuable steal.

4. Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

Pick No. 146 in 2014

Known as a high-caliber high school recruit who opted for a struggling Maryland program, Stefon Diggs was a difficult prospect to bank on in the 2015 class. He had obvious quickness and great athleticism, but he struggled with injuries and dealt with horrible quarterback play. A better situation may have helped Diggs land where he clearly belonged in hindsight: the first-round.

Of course, Diggs had more tough luck as he landed with a struggling Vikings offense until the team acquired Kirk Cousins. His 2017 season with Case Keenum was promising as he reached 849 yards and eight touchdowns, but since 2018, Diggs has been paired with much better passers and his productivity has exploded.

He's peaked over the past two seasons with Buffalo. The Bills' high-volume passing game has led to 166 and 164 targets in 2020 and 2021, and Diggs has combined for 2,760 yards and 18 touchdowns on 230 receptions. It's hard to argue he's not a top-five receiver in the NFL.

On Wednesday, the Bills rewarded Diggs with a four-year, $96 million extension for his immediate impact on the offense. 

The league has shifted to quicker-than-fast receivers who win off the line of scrimmage in part because of how easy Diggs makes things for his quarterback. He'd be a guaranteed top-five pick in almost any draft class if teams knew what he'd become.

3. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Pick No. 165 in 2016

While Tyrann Matheiu dropped in his class for a legal issue, the reason for Tyreek Hill's draft slide is much uglier. Hill fell to the fifth-round after a domestic assault and battery by strangulation arrest while he was at Oklahoma State. Hill pleaded guilty in the case as part of a plea agreement and received three years' probation.

He was dismissed immediately by Mike Gundy and landed at West Alabama for his senior season.

During his lone season at Oklahoma State in 2014, the 5'10", 185-pounder totaled 815 yards as a receiver and rusher, and he added 996 return yards. It was always fair to wonder what the value of such a small and positionless playmaker was entering the NFL, but Hill is arguably the fastest and quickest player in the league.

Many similarly small players who lacked a clear position have failed in the NFL, making Hill a true exception to the historical comparisons. Hill became an elite route-runner and true master of finding space on broken and extended plays. He's arguably the best overall receiver right now, and there's not anyone directly comparable because of his extreme skill set.

2. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Pick No. 135 in 2016

Finding a quality long-term starting quarterback beyond the first round has become almost impossible. For all of the first-round busts we can name, the only opening-day starters who weren't first-rounders from the past decade were Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott. Garoppolo, Carr, and Hurts were all second-round picks. 

The concept of a developmental quarterback is too idealistic for the NFL's reality. The short windows to win rob talented-but-raw passers of long-term developmental opportunities. Plus, the draft has long been the only avenue for teams to acquire a star passer, so it's a worthwhile gamble to select a quarterback even if there are legitimate concerns about them. 

Prescott is the most recent exception to the established thought that quarterbacks selected beyond the second-round are set for a backup's career. Taken in the fourth-round as an experienced collegiate quarterback who really found his footing as a senior, Prescott grabbed the chance to be the Cowboys' long-term answer as soon as Tony Romo was injured during a preseason game. Romo was able to return by the end of the year, but Dallas decided the rookie was the better option.

His five years with the Cowboys have featured some highs and lows. Early, he was part of an incredibly talented unit and orchestrated the offense as a game manager. Over the past two years, Prescott has blossomed as a passer despite a major injury in 2020, and he has cemented himself as—at worst—an above-average quarterback.

1. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

Pick No. 75 in 2012

Russell Wilson is forever destined to be a headliner in any NFL draft steals article. The former third-rounder quickly dispelled doubters as the Seattle Seahawks ripped off five straight seasons with double-digit wins with Wilson under center, including a Super Bowl XLVIII victory in 2014. He amassed a 104-53-1 record in 10 seasons in Seattle, which is made more impressive by the fact he only missed two games despite predraft concerns about his 5'11", 215-pound stature.

The nine-time Pro Bowler's performances throughout the years established him as one of the most dynamic, explosive, and reliable playmakers at the position. Few quarterbacks in league history can boast Wilson's blend of accuracy (65.0 percent for his career), downfield throwing ability and escapability from the pocket. 

His impact goes even beyond the Seahawks. Seeing a short, thick-bodied quarterback reach such success opened the door for other smaller quarterbacks. Notably, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Tua Tagovailoa were all first-round picks despite lacking traditionally ideal measurements.

Now with the Denver Broncos for the next phase of his career, it's simply hilarious that teams missed on Wilson after an incredible collegiate career at North Carolina State and Wisconsin. He started four years in college, averaged 7.9 yards per passing attempt and tested as an elite athlete in combine drills. 

What lies ahead will only further cement Wilson's legacy as an era-defining presence. 

   

Read 0 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)