All four No. 1 seeds are alive as we approach the Sweet 16, which begins Friday. On the flip side, just two double-digit seeds remain.

The No. 10 Creighton Blue Jays pulled off an upset on Caitlin Clark's Iowa on the Hawkeyes' home floor. Can Creighton contain another three-point juggernaut in the Iowa State Cyclones? The No. 10 South Dakota Coyotes took down No. 2 Baylor in the second round and ended national championship hopes for top WNBA prospect NaLyssa Smith. Now South Dakota faces third-seeded Michigan.

We'll also talk about UConn, Indiana and Tennessee, who were all pushed to the brink in the second round. And who will emerge from a game involving the two hottest teams in the tournament, Stanford or Maryland? 

It's also time to address South Carolina's vulnerability. Is it really the favorite to win it all at the Final Four in Minneapolis?

Greensboro Region

No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 5 North Carolina

Friday, March 25, at 7 p.m. on ESPN

The Big Question: Can South Carolina figure out its struggles on offense?

South Carolina is vulnerable. There, I said it.

We previously lauded this Dawn Staley team as perhaps her best ever, but since then, the Gamecocks haven't been playing to their potential. South Carolina has depth, but that doesn't mean this team has balance.

The most glaring issues begin with a lack of consistency in its backcourt offense. In the first two rounds, starting guards Zia Cooke and Destanni Henderson haven't scored in double digits and have shot at maximum 33 percent. Besides Cooke's 15-point performance against Kentucky in the SEC Championship Game, this is the new normal for the Gamecocks backcourt.

Players to Watch: South Carolina's Zia Cooke vs. UNC's Kennedy Todd-Williams

If Cooke can find her way out of her shooting and scoring slump, a more balanced attack will open up the paint for Aliyah Boston. But she'll most likely be guarded by North Carolina's big guard in Kennedy Todd-Williams, who at 6'0" has made offense very difficult for her opponents. She held Arizona's star point guard Shaina Pellington to just three points in the Tar Heels' decisive win over the Wildcats.

Todd-Williams is no slouch on offense, either. She was North Carolina's top scorer in Tucson, putting up 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting and adding five assists.

No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Creighton

Friday, March 25, at 9:30 p.m. on ESPN2

The Big Question: Which team can create and hit threes?

When will the Cinderella story end for Creighton? Or, does it have to?

Its win against Iowa didn't come as a great shock. Iowa's lack of defensive intensity and discipline was predictably its downfall against the Bluejays' efficient three-point attack.

But creating open three-point looks and outrebounding a team with more length and a better defense will be tough. The Bluejays won't be able to just focus on WNBA prospect Ashley Joens as they did with Caitlin Clark. The Cyclones have other shooters in Emily Ryan, Lexi Donarski and Joens' younger sister Aubrey. 

Players to Watch: Iowa State's Ashley Joens vs. Creighton's Lauren Jensen

Joens is one of the few top WNBA draft prospects remaining in the tournament, and she's her team's best player and leader. Keep an eye on how she uses her left elbow to liberally create space, as she did against Georgia.

A team like Creighton, with less size than Georgia, should allow Joens to operate freely. The Bluejays will need to force the Cyclones to beat them with anyone but Joens.

Jensen's heroics could continue. As her team's second-best three-point shooter overall but best three-point shooting starter, she scored 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting, including three triples in the win against Iowa. She also recorded seven rebounds, which might be a more difficult feat against Iowa State.

Predictions

South Carolina and North Carolina will be more competitive than people expect. But ultimately Aliyah Boston will likely have a better game than she did against Miami, which allows the Gamecocks to slide by the Tar Heels.

Creighton matched up so well against its previous opponent in Iowa because of Iowa's less disciplined defense. The Cyclones have a similar identity to the Bluejays, as both teams create three-point shots at a high clip. But the difference here is the Cyclones have a defensive rating of 89.4, according to Her Hoop Stats. They are ranked 42nd in the country and should put more pressure on the Bluejays' most consistent shooters.

South Carolina will prevail, but danger lurks when looking ahead. The team's Achilles' heel is a high-powered defensive backcourt and outside shooting, which the Louisville Cardinals could have if guard Hailey Van Lith continues scoring better than 20 points per game and shooting over 47 percent from the field.

Spokane Region

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 6 Ohio State

Friday, March 25, at 7 p.m. on ESPN2

The Big Question: Can Ohio State overcome the high-pressure defense of Texas?

The Longhorns have the ninth-best Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating and hold opponents to just 56.5 points per game. Head coach Vic Schaefer has made the Longhorns focus on their high-pressure defense, which has already suffocated the likes of Stanford, Baylor and Iowa State.

The Longhorns offense depends on shot-creators Rori Harmon and Aliyah Matharu, and Lauren Ebo outworking opponents on the offensive glass. Meanwhile, Ohio State is the sixth-best three-point shooting team in the country, and its offensive identity is predominantly perimeter-driven. In its win against Kim Mulkey's LSU, the Buckeyes shot 45.5 percent (10-of-22) from three.

Players to Watch: Texas' Rori Harmon vs. Ohio State's Taylor Mikesell

Texas is powered by freshman point guard Harmon. In the Longhorns' first two tournament games, Harmon put up double-doubles in points and assists and shot 45 percent from the field while going 9-of-20.

Mikesell, the sharpshooting guard who has been just about everywhere in the Power Five, is second in the country in threes made per game and has gone 6-of-11 from deep in the first two rounds of the tournament.

Whichever top guard on either side can execute the best will determine which team has the better shot at advancing to the Elite Eight.

No. 1 Stanford vs. No. 4 Maryland

Friday, March 25, at 9:30 p.m. on ESPN

The Big Question: Can the defending champs stop the hottest offense in the country?

Both Stanford and Maryland have outscored their opponents convincingly in the tourney thus far, with the Cardinal outscoring Montana State by 41 points followed by a 26-point drubbing of Kansas. Maryland has had a similar body of work, defeating Delaware by 31 and then FGCU with WNBA draft prospect Kierstan Bell by 24.

Both offenses are ideally balanced with multiple weapons, and neither runs their sets through just one player.

Maryland is scoring 95.5 points per game in the tournament, but the defense has struggled. This is not a team that wins games on its defense. The Terrapins have a defensive rating of 92.1, which places them at the 45th percentile, per Her Hoop Stats. Stanford's 81.2 defensive rating sits at the 95th percentile. With more defensive identity and discipline than Maryland, the Cardinal have a slight edge.

Players to Watch: Stanford's Lexie and Lacie Hull and Cameron Brink; Maryland's Angel Reese and Diamond Miller

The Hull sisters will be playing in the city where they grew up in Spokane, Washington, so expect the seniors to be at their best—especially after Lexie put up a career-high 36 points against Kansas.

Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Brink will have a difficult defensive matchup with Maryland's leading scorer Angel Reese. That could be the matchup that decides the game. Diamond Miller, who has had two straight 20-plus-point games while shooting over 58 percent from the field, will be a matchup nightmare as a 6'3" guard.

Predictions

Texas' defense has had a convincing track record of executing its game plan and shutting down dynamic offenses. I'd be shocked if that weren't the case against Ohio State. The Buckeyes won't be able to get into their offensive sets comfortably, which will lead to costly turnovers and fewer shots on target. If the Longhorns defense does not show up, this could be a much more evenly matched game.

Stanford and Maryland won't disappoint as the most exciting game of the Sweet 16. It will be such a shame that one of these teams will have to go home, but I do believe the Cardinal prevail and prove that defensive buy-in does help win championships. A Texas and Stanford rematch would be fascinating, and I'm pretty confident we are going to see it.

This one should be close, but I do believe that the Cardinal have grown and gotten a lot better since their loss to the Longhorns this past November.

Bridgeport Region

No. 1 NC State vs. No. 5 Notre Dame

Saturday, March 26, at 11:30 a.m. on ESPN

The Big Question: How much will experience matter?

As ACC rivals, NC State and Notre Dame know each other well. In their regular-season matchup in early February, the Fighting Irish squeaked by the Wolfpack 69-66 in a game where NC State center and WNBA prospect Elissa Cunane got into foul trouble and only played 23 minutes. Cunane was efficient, scoring 13 points on 4-of-5 shooting and 5-of-5 from the line.

NC State primarily plays through the perimeter, as five players shoot better than 35 percent from three. But Cunane's presence is the key and should keep NC State's eighth-ranked offense balanced.

Maybe it will all come down to experience. The Wolfpack's five starters are all upperclassmen, compared with two for the Irish. NC State has been to four straight Sweet 16 games but has only reached the Final Four once in school history (1998).

For ND, this will be Niele Ivey's first Sweet 16 as a head coach and Notre Dame's first appearance in the regional phase of the tournament since 2019.

Players to Watch: NC State's Elissa Cunane and Diamond Johnson; Notre Dame's Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron

While Cunane is the Wolfpack's centerpiece, Johnson, a sophomore who came through the transfer portal this season, is NC State's closer. Head coach Wes Moore has opted to bring her off the bench all season long as an explosive combo guard known to hit clutch shots down the stretch.

For Notre Dame, two first-year players comprise the center of attack: the triple-double scoring point guard Olivia Miles and her partner in transition Sonia Citron, a three-level scoring wing who helps Notre Dame push the ball.

No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Indiana

Saturday, March 26, at 2 p.m. on ESPN

The Big Question: How does UConn respond offensively after shooting under 30 percent against UCF?

In the Huskies' 52-47 win over UCF, UConn only shot 8-30 from twos and 14-of-48 overall. UConn missed easy open looks at the rim and beyond the arc against the nation's top defense. UConn's next opponent in the Indiana Hoosiers allows 61.3 points per game (vs. UCF's wildly impressive 47.8 points allowed per game) with a solid but much less aggressive defense.

With more room to operate the point of attack, Paige Bueckers could finally have her post-knee injury breakout. The Huskies will still need Caroline Ducharme and Dorka Juhasz to step up after subpar performances against UCF. Indiana's defense will also have to focus on Azzi Fudd and prevent flair-screen threes.

Players to Watch: UConn's Paige Bueckers and Christyn Williams; Indiana's Grace Berger and Nicole Cardano-Hillary

With Fudd most likely targeted by the Hoosiers defense and Bueckers still getting back into top form, Williams will need to slash, get downhill and initiate easier offense in transition.

For the Hoosiers, leading scorer Grace Berger and defensive captain Nicole Cardano-Hillary will need to have the games of their lives. But Cardano-Hillary has done it before, most recently against Iowa on March 6 in the Big Ten Championship Game, when she held Caitlin Clark to 18 points on 17 shots and nabbed four steals.

Predictions

Notre Dame should stay competitive for a half, but expect NC State to break it open in the third quarter, similar to the Irish's loss against Louisville on Feb. 13. The Irish entered the third quarter down by 10 but then got outscored 26-16 in the third. Elissa Cunane will find success against Notre Dame's more athletic and smaller posts.

If UConn advances to face NC State in the Elite Eight, the Huskies will have to flex their top-10 defense and control the pace of the game. UConn also has enough size to make sure Cunane isn't too comfortable on the block.

On the heels of a ton of adversity during the 2021-22 season, the Huskies should win out.

Wichita Region

No. 1 Louisville vs. No. 4 Tennessee

Saturday, March 26, at 4 p.m. on ESPN2

The Big Question: Who can remain the most focused?

So far, Louisville has looked like the better team in this tournament, dominating Albany 83-51 and Gonzaga 68-59. Meanwhile, who knows how the Vols will respond after their scare against in-state rival Belmont.

Both teams are well-regarded defensively, so I expect this game to be very low scoring unless Hailey Van Lith continues her hot shooting streak.

Most of Louisville's losses have come in final-frame meltdowns, like its 61-59 loss to Miami in the ACC tournament. Tennessee's inconsistencies resulted in the Vols losing half of their final 14 games.

The Vols turn it over 17 times per game, so expect frequent transition offense.

Players to Watch: Louisville's Hailey Van Lith and Emily Engstler; Tennessee's Rae Burrell

Van Lith's inside-out scoring has powered the Cardinals' inconsistent offense. Engstler, who's expected to declare for the WNBA following the tournament, has led Louisville on defense, as she currently has a team-leading 4.8 defensive win shares.

Without leading scorer Jordan Horston, who is still currently recovering from a left elbow injury, and post presence Tamari Key facing a difficult matchup inside against Louisville's Olivia Cochran, the Vols will have to rely upon another WNBA prospect in senior wing Rae Burrell.

In the tournament so far, Burrell has put up 19 points on 18 shots against Buffalo and then struggled to score, going 2-of-12 from the field against Belmont. She'll need to perform well for the Vols to have a fighting chance against the Cardinals.

No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 10 South Dakota

Saturday, March 26, at 6:30 p.m. on ESPN2

The Big Question: How well does Michigan study South Dakota's game plan?

South Dakota's tourney game plan has been simple, but it's worked against teams with pro-ready players in Baylor's NaLyssa Smith and Ole Miss' Shakira Austin. SD packed the paint and sent doubles on both Smith and Austin, forcing both Baylor and Ole Miss to beat the Coyotes with role players.

This same strategy could work against Michigan, which functions similar to their two previous opponents. At the very least, Michigan should prepare for double-teams sent on leading scorer Naz Hillmon.

During Michigan's 104-80 loss to Iowa at the end of February, the Hawkeyes successfully doubled Hillmon and prevented post entry passes her way. Will Michigan be ready for it this time? Will the Wolverines' limited role players do enough to beat the Coyotes?

Players to Watch: Michigan's Naz Hillmon and South Dakota's Hannah Sjerven

We have questions! How well did Hillmon study South Dakota's equally smart but also predictable game plan? Will she be ready to kick out and find a workaround? Does she figure out other ways she can impact the game besides scoring?

If Hillmon is going to succeed in the pros, she'll have to find other ways to impact the game. Starting work on that concept during what could be her final college game doesn't sound like a waste of time to me.

Super senior Hannah Sjerven has keyed the Coyotes' success during this tournament run. In two tournament games, she is averaging 18 points per game, shooting 71.5 percent from the field.

Predictions

Louisville has a better defense and a better roster than Tennessee right now. If Jordan Horston was available, I'd say this game would have the potential to be more competitive.

Hailey Van Lith will be guarded better by the Vols' backcourt, but then Kianna Smith, a 38 percent three-point shooter, will come through in her place. Engstler will return with a better shooting performance than what she displayed in the win against Gonzaga.

The Coyotes will execute their game plan once again, and Michigan will come up short. Hillmon and Michigan will adapt, but it will come too late, similar to what went on in Waco.

As for the Elite Eight round, a more aggressive point-of-attack defense should stifle South Dakota's perimeter game, with the Cardinals limiting how much time they have to get into their actions.

Pencil in Louisville advancing to its first Final Four since 2018.