Matthew Hinton/Associated Press

Every Rebuilding NBA Team's Biggest Need This Offseason

Grant Hughes

If you aren't getting better in the NBA, you're getting worse.

For a handful of teams this season, getting worse has been the point. But that can't be the goal forever.

The advent of the play-in tournament and flattened lottery odds have made outright tanking less appealing, but falling down the standings to eventually climb back up remains a sound strategy as long as there's a plan in place for the ascent.

The rebuilders featured here share some common traits. They're less concerned with winning games in the present and more focused on positioning themselves to succeed in the future. That generally entails big minutes for younger players, bad records and trades that diminish the current roster in exchange for financial flexibility, draft picks or cost-controlled prospects.

There's no one-size-fits-all approach to starting over. Here, we'll lay out what each rebuilding team should focus on once the 2021-22 season concludes.

Detroit Pistons: A Star Up Front

Matt York/Associated Press

It'd be a bold, potentially rash move, but the Detroit Pistons have a chance to swing for the fences this offseason that might not present itself again.

They should fire a max offer sheet at Phoenix Suns restricted free agent Deandre Ayton.

The Orlando Magic are the only other team with an easy path to clearing sufficient cap space, and they already have Wendell Carter Jr. under contract, plus their own restricted free agent center in Mo Bamba. They shouldn't be itching to hand out a nine-figure deal to another big man.

In an ideal scenario for the Pistons, a disgruntled Ayton (who didn't get a preseason extension) might turn down any sub-max offer from the Suns and look elsewhere. The historically thrifty Suns ownership also might try to lowball Ayton, knowing that few teams have the cap space to make him a competitive offer.

If Detroit is the only outside suitor with the space to max him out, Ayton would have to at least consider ditching a contender for a fresh start. In that hypothetical, the Pistons could go forward with Cade Cunningham, Ayton, whomever they grab with their high lottery pick, Jerami Grant and a cap sheet otherwise populated by cheap and/or tradable contracts.

Detroit will likely have intel as to whether Ayton would consider a move long before it'll have to slide the offer sheet across the table. But even if the Pistons took the risk of tying up money while Ayton considers the deal, possibly costing themselves a chance to court other free agents, that isn't the worst outcome in the world.

If the Pistons come up totally empty in free agency, they can carry their cap space into the season and use it to take on bad contracts with picks and/or prospects attached. That's a stellar Plan B for a rebuilder—albeit one that requires another year of patience for a potentially larger payoff down the line.

Yes, Pistons fans, I hear you. The team also needs a point guard. But why not think bigger before getting practical?

A rebuilding team's biggest need is often a cornerstone player. Cunningham might be one, and Ayton could be another.

Houston Rockets: Stack Those Draft Picks

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

The Houston Rockets are a long, long way from fielding a competitive team, and that status affords them at least one more year of entirely future-focused thinking. That's code for going full Oklahoma City Thunder and hoarding draft picks.

Fortunately, the Rockets have several assets that should be useful in that endeavor.

John Wall's contract will expire after the 2022-23 season, which means his appeal as a trade piece is only rising. The Rockets should re-engage with the Los Angeles Lakers on a swap for Russell Westbrook in the hope that L.A. will part with one or both of its available first-rounders (2027 and 2029). Considering LeBron James' age and the Lakers' dearth of young talent, those picks could wind up being hugely valuable.

Lacking flexibility, the Lakers might feel forced to use every last resource, picks included, to put a better team around James next season. At the very least, we know he doesn't care what happens to the franchise a half-decade from now, so he'll surely push the front office for more future-mortgaging moves.

The Lakers would have to view Wall as a major upgrade over Westbrook, which is a tough sell. Still, don't underestimate how much worse things could get in L.A. down the stretch. And a buyout of Westbrook's deal, which would bring back nothing in the way of roster help, probably wouldn't please James.

Thinking smaller, the Rockets should also shop Eric Gordon (who inexplicably stayed in Houston through the trade deadline), Christian Wood and anyone else not named Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun.

The Rockets figure to struggle again in 2022-23, particularly if Kevin Porter Jr. and Green continue to be the primary playmakers. Their own first-rounders project to be in the lottery for at least another year or two. But why stop there?

More picks, particularly ones with high upside from the Lakers, could position the Rockets to be very good for a very long time.

Indiana Pacers: Combo Forward

Ashley Landis/Associated Press

The trade that sent Domantas Sabonis to the Sacramento Kings for a package headlined by Tyrese Haliburton marked the Indiana Pacers as rebuilders, but their history and the quality of the current roster's core pieces suggest this won't be a drawn-out construction process.

That allows us to focus on positional needs, with an eye toward getting the short-term rebuilding Pacers back into the playoff mix they've rarely left over the last few decades.

With Haliburton and Malcolm Brogdon in the backcourt, Buddy Hield and Chris Duarte on the wing and Myles Turner in the middle, Indiana's cupboard is far from bare. However, it lacks the type of rangy forward necessary to wrangle the Jayson Tatums, Jimmy Butlers or Kevin Durants of the world. 

T.J. Warren might be that guy, but he's an unrestricted free agent and has played a grand total of four NBA games (zero this year) since busting out in the bubble. Bringing him back at a discount would be wise, but the Pacers can't be confident he'll contribute 70-plus games of quality play after such a long injury layoff.

Miles Bridges would be interesting here, as he'd fit nicely into either forward spot and would add a level of athleticism and transition pop that Indiana's roster currently lacks. Haliburton would have a field day chucking lobs to one of the league's top finishers, and the Pacers might finally have a transition attack whose pace creeps above glacial.

If the Pacers get healthy and fill their forward need, they'll have a great shot of getting back into the playoff mix.

Oklahoma City Thunder: God-Level Patience

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The Oklahoma City Thunder have $31 million in cap space burning a hole in their pocket, but they only have until June 30 to use it. After that, the league year flips, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's max extension kicks in and, poof, that cap space is gone.

Unfortunately for Thunder fans hoping for some expensive talent that isn't part of a salary dump, the only realistic way for OKC to use that room is to take on more bad money—think Russell Westbrook or Tobias Harris—from a team willing to include draft picks for the trouble.

If that strategy seems familiar, it's because the Thunder have employed it to an extreme degree for two years. They have a historic haul of 17 first-round picks over the next five drafts to show for it, and even if adding even more selections to the pile might seem like overkill, they don't have any other great options.

The Thunder aren't a free-agency destination, and even if they were, it wouldn't make sense to go out and sign a veteran to the mid-level exception just to improve the team for next season. OKC has built a roster with holes everywhere outside of Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, and Kemba Walker's dead money for next season leaves surprisingly little flexibility.

What do the Thunder need this offseason? Young players and picks, sure. But more than anything, they'll need patience.

This thing isn't ready to turn around just yet.

Orlando Magic: Shooting

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

When you give big minutes and playmaking responsibilities to inexperienced guards, ugly offense is the expectation. But even if the Orlando Magic—29th in offense, 28th in effective field-goal percentage and 27th in three-point accuracy—might have seen this coming, that's no excuse for letting these struggles linger into next year.

The Magic need shooting, and they need it badly.

Only three rotation regulars (800 minutes or more) on this year's Magic team have true shooting percentages above the league average: Wendell Carter Jr., Mo Bamba and Gary Harris. The last two are headed for free agency, which means Orlando might head into 2022-23 with Carter as the only guy on the roster who's capable of scoring at an efficiency level (marginally) above average.

Organic improvement could help. Franz Wagner is close to joining the above group, and his success across the board as a rookie portends growth. But many of the team's returning high-volume shooters—Cole Anthony, Terrence Ross, Chuma Okeke and Jalen Suggs—are so far below average in scoring efficiency that even significant strides won't be enough to get the offense to respectable levels.

If Jonathan Isaac comes back healthy next year, he won't help, either.

Bad offense produces more losses, which leads to higher draft picks. You could cynically argue that the Magic would be best served by not adding any shooting at all. But this is about needs, and Orlando's biggest one is obvious.

This team has to find more players who can make a jump shot.

Portland Trail Blazers: A Mobile Center

Amanda Loman/Associated Press

You could go a number of different directions for the soft-rebuild Portland Trail Blazers. But as they try to hastily reconstruct a contender around Damian Lillard, the need for a switchy, defensively mobile center stands out.

And no, Justise Winslow is not the galaxy-brain answer.

Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Josh Hart (non-guaranteed for 2022-23) give the Blazers a tantalizing three-guard look, but none of them has the size to bounce around positionally. Hart tries his best, but he's only 6'5" and can't really bother forwards. Nassir Little looked promising as a 3 prior to a season-ending shoulder injury, but even he's a little undersized, especially if Portland wants to juice its offense by slotting him at power forward next year.

With the key returners forming what looks like a leaky, easily overpowered perimeter defense, you might think it wise to bring back Jusuf Nurkic to defend the rim. He's been great at that over the years, reliably reducing opponent attempt rate and accuracy inside. But multiple injuries have sapped Nurk's lateral mobility, and teams have consistently gotten up more three-point attempts when he's in the game, a result of his limitations on the perimeter.

With him, switching is out of the question.

Portland could have the room to bring Nurkic back in unrestricted free agency and find a more athletic 5. If the Blazers are serious about contending, they'll probably need both. 

Two quick additional thoughts, the first of which should only be whispered: Portland does not need to give Lillard the two-year, $107 million extension for which he's eligible this offseason. That way madness lies.

The second: Portland needs to keep Simons in restricted free agency. He might be the key to success in a post-Lillard world.

Sacramento Kings: Find Some Wings

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Sacramento Kings went for it by trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis, a move no sensible rebuilder would ever make.

It's been a long time since the Kings showed much good sense...or clarity of vision...or patience...or resolve...or any quality you'd associate with a well-run, successful organization. Despite their best efforts to win now, the Kings are still rebuilding. And that's kind of been their story for 20 years.

We can't rectify the failures in approach over the last two decades, but perhaps a more precise and practical suggestion will help next season be better than this one. To that end, the Kings need wings.

Davion Mitchell and De'Aaron Fox are fine in the backcourt. Though they form an undersized and suspect-shooting combo, they both have upside, and Fox is a reliable three-point shot away from regaining fringe All-Star status. Sabonis and a glut of reserve bigs mean the center position is set, and Harrison Barnes is steady at the 4.

The only wings Sacramento currently has on the books for next year are Justin Holiday and Moe Harkless. Those two have single-digit career scoring averages and no reason to expect improvement.

Donte DiVincenzo is a restricted free agent who's likely to stick around, but he's too small to occupy a wing spot, especially with so little size at the guard positions.

The Kings will have the full mid-level exception at their disposal, but few good options in free agency. Otto Porter Jr. and Derrick Jones Jr. have appeal, but they're closer to being combo forwards. Depending on its draft luck, Sacramento could grab Duke freshman AJ Griffin or Arizona sophomore Bennedict Mathurin.

Building through the draft makes the most sense, but don't rule out the Kings trading their first-rounder for magic beans. You just never know with these guys. 

San Antonio Spurs: Clarity on Gregg Popovich

Darren Abate/Associated Press

Legendary head coach Gregg Popovich has the NBA's all-time wins record in hand and, at 73, nothing left to prove.

The San Antonio Spurs need to know whether he intends to return in 2022-23 before they make any other decisions, because Pop's status affects everything about their offseason plans.

On the extreme end, they can't lean into a rebuild that might include using cap space to take on bad contracts with Popovich still in charge. San Antonio seems only half-serious about its youth movement, which is understandable as long as Pop is around.

Example: Though seven of the San Antonio Spurs' top eight players (excluding Derrick White, who's now gone) in total minutes are in their age-26 or younger season, a team in this position not being coached by Popovich likely would have already given tons of time to rookie Josh Primo.

If Popovich is around next year, the Spurs' youngest players still might struggle to get playing time over lower-ceilinged but more reliable veterans.

It's clear that even with Popovich on the sideline, a few things are changing. The Spurs actually made deals at the trade deadline (whoa!), moving White for a return focused on a first-round pick (double whoa!). San Antonio could have up to $22 million in cap space to spend this offseason, and it needs a small-ball 5 to spell Jakob Poeltl, plus another combo guard to pair with All-Star Dejounte Murray. 

Rather than isolate a positional need, though, the Spurs first have to decide whether they're truly embarking on a new era or playing out the tail end of the old one.

       

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through March 16. Salary info via Spotrac.

   

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