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Every Projected NBA Playoff Team's Nightmare Matchup

Greg Swartz

While every NBA team should be delighted to reach the postseason, there's always at least one opponent that they'd prefer to avoid facing.

This year especially, some of the lower seeds could be extremely dangerous in a first-round matchup. The Brooklyn Nets may finish as the eighth seed yet could be a vaccine mandate away from having a Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons-led team ready to storm through the East. No one at the top of the West will want to face a Los Angeles Clippers squad that could potentially get Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back for the playoffs, either.

Other nightmare opponents could come down to individual matchups, team strengths and weaknesses or emotional factors that could come into play.

Since playoff seeding (and the play-in tournament) are still weeks away from being decided, we're using FiveThirtyEight's projections to determine the 16 postseason teams.

Here's who every projected playoff team should want to avoid.

East No. 1: Miami Heat

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Nightmare Team to Face: Boston Celtics

Season Record Against: 0-2

Key Concern: Three-point shooting

As the only Eastern Conference team Miami hasn't beaten this season, the Celtics present a difficult matchup for the current No. 1 seed in the East.

Boston has held the best net rating in basketball for the past three months (plus-9.6), led by an elite defense that now features Derrick White.

This is especially problematic for a Heat team that features the three-ball as a large portion of its offense. Miami ranks first in three-point success rate this season (37.5 percent) and is seventh overall in made threes per game (13.3). The Heat need the balance of an outside attack from players such as Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus and P.J. Tucker to help give Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo the spacing they need to attack and find open cutters.

No team has been better defending the arc this season than Boston, however.

The Celtics hold opponents to just 33.6 percent shooting from three, the best mark in the East and second overall in the NBA behind only the Phoenix Suns. White, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown are all terrific perimeter defenders who could help shut down Miami's guards from long range.

East No. 2: Philadelphia 76ers

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Nightmare Team to Face: Brooklyn Nets

Season Record Against: 1-3

Key Concern: Nets' revenge factor against James Harden

Let's be honest: this is the playoff matchup all basketball fans want to see. We recently got a taste of what a seven-game series would be like, one full of superstars with a lot of emotional aspects tied in.

While Harden has played extremely well with the Sixers following his trade from Brooklyn (22.3 points, 11.2 assists, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 44.4 percent from three), he struggled mightily in the first game against his old teammates.

Shooting just 3-of-17 overall (including 0-of-10 from inside the arc) for his 11 points in Philly, having to go on the road up to three times in Brooklyn is going to make for a not-so-friendly environment for the star guard.

It's fair to point out that Ben Simmons will get an even worse reception for the games at Philadelphia, although Brooklyn just proved it could beat the Sixers just fine without him in its 129-100 drubbing on March 10.

Seth Curry and Andre Drummond, sent from Philly to Brooklyn in the Harden-Simmons swap as well, will have their own extra motivation to want to take down the higher-seeded 76ers.

While this would be a nightmare playoff matchup for Simmons himself, the Sixers are the ones who should want to avoid a series more.

East No. 3: Milwaukee Bucks

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Nightmare Team to Face: Toronto Raptors

Season Record Against: 0-3

Key Concern: Length around Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Miami Heat and Brooklyn Nets are obvious candidates here, but Toronto could give Milwaukee all it could handle in a first-round series.

Winless against the Raptors all season, it's fair to point out that Milwaukee only had Antetokounmpo active for one of those meetings. The result of that game should concern the Bucks, however.

Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby have enough size and athleticism to bother Antetokounmpo and keep him from getting easy paint looks throughout a series. In a Jan. 15 loss to Toronto where the Bucks scored just 96 points, Antetokounmpo was held to 6-of-17 shooting overall (35.3 percent), the worst field-goal percentage he's shot against any team all season. Khris Middleton was even worse, finishing 3-of-12 from the floor (25.0 percent).

While Jrue Holiday missed the game for Milwaukee, Toronto was without Scottie Barnes (another 6'9" defender to bother Antetokounmpo and Middleton) and Gary Trent Jr.

Few would pick the Bucks to actually lose a series to the Raptors, although slugging through a six- or seven-game first-round series would be a nightmare start to the playoffs for the defending champs.

East No. 4: Boston Celtics

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Nightmare Team to Face: Chicago Bulls

Season Record Against: 1-1

Key Concern: Chicago's mid-range mastery

Although it's been nearly two months since we've seen Chicago and Boston face off, the Celtics shouldn't be eager to do battle with the Bulls anytime soon.

While Boston's defense is elite, Chicago possesses the right personnel to attack its weakest point.

The Celtics' league-best three-point defense would be a problem for a team like the Miami Heat, who take and make shots from outside the arc at or near a league-best rate. Chicago does more damage from mid-range, led by likely MVP finalist DeMar DeRozan.

The Bulls rank first overall in mid-range field goals per game (8.5), hitting them at a 44.5 percent clip (second only to the Brooklyn Nets). The Celtics, on the other hand, allow the second-most shot attempts from mid-range (13.7) and the fifth-most makes (5.3). With Marcus Smart and Derrick White working to cut off the point of attack and Robert Williams III protecting the rim, Chicago could find a soft spot in the middle of the defense for DeRozan to exploit.

In two games versus the Celtics, DeRozan is averaging 30.0 points on 57.5 percent shooting. Elite three-point defense doesn't do much good when the opponent's best player largely ignores that area of the floor.

For Boston, Jayson Tatum has shooting performances of 8-of-22 (36.4 percent) and 8-of-24 (33.3 percent) against the Bulls this season, with the Bulls' lone loss (a 114-112 nail-biter) coming in a game where they were missing Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball.

Boston's magical run could come to an early end if they face Chicago.

East No. 5: Chicago Bulls

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Nightmare Team to Face: Miami Heat

Season Record Against: 0-3

Key Concern: Miami's playoff experience

Outside of DeMar DeRozan, there's little combined playoff experience on this Bulls roster. This could play a big role if Chicago runs into a veteran-heavy Miami team.

Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker have a combined 250 playoff games under their belt, with Tucker and Lowry winning championships in 2021 and 2019, respectively. Butler and Bam Adebayo carried this Miami team to a Finals appearance in 2020 as well.

Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has coached in five NBA Finals, winning two, and has led Miami to a sparkling 85-58 record overall in the postseason. His winning percentage is somehow even higher in the playoffs (59.4 percent) than the regular season (59.3 percent).

This would be a tough draw for a Bulls group making its first playoff appearance together.

Butler should feast while attacking DeRozan in isolation play after play, and Chicago simply can't match Tyler Herro's offensive fireworks off the bench.

The Bulls should hope to face a fellow playoff newbie in the Cleveland Cavaliers, at least to open the postseason.

East No. 6: Cleveland Cavaliers

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Nightmare Team to Face: Boston Celtics

Season Record Against: 1-2

Key Concern: Lack of ball-handlers vs. Marcus Smart and Derrick White

Cleveland's dream season is quickly slipping away, as the Cavs are just 3-8 in their last 11 games.

One big reason? A lack of playmakers to get the ball to their supersized frontcourt of Jarrett Allen (who's currently sidelined with a broken finger), Evan Mobley, Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love.

Darius Garland has been fantastic, but he's been troubled by back problems for the past months. The Cavs have been troubled by not having anyone else to dribble and pass behind him. Caris LeVert has played in just four games since his trade to Cleveland and is out with a foot injury. Rajon Rondo (toe) has missed time and is showing his age when active now at 35. Journeyman Brandon Goodwin has even had to start five games for the Cavs, who previously lost Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio to knee injuries.

If the Cavaliers have to face an elite perimeter defense in the first round with just Garland as a reliable ball-handler, they'll struggle to win a game.

Smart and White can wreak havoc on opposing point guards and will almost certainly force Garland to give up the ball and make others create offense on their own.

While Cleveland's defense should hold up against the Celtics, the Cavs could struggle to generate points.

East No. 7: Toronto Raptors

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Nightmare Team to Face: Philadelphia 76ers

Season Record Against: 1-1

Key Concern: Joel Embiid

The Raptors have yet to face the new-look Sixers featuring James Harden, although he's not the one they should be worried about most.

One downside to fielding a roster of all 6'9" players is running into a 7'0", 280-pound behemoth who can toy with smaller opponents with his size, strength and variety of post moves.

In his lone game versus Toronto this season, Embiid put up 36 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks and made 11 of his 16 shot attempts (68.8 percent) while going 12-of-14 from the free-throw line (85.7 percent).

Players such as Pascal Siakam, Khem Birch, Thaddeus Young and Chris Boucher could all take turns defending Embiid, but it will likely be a collective effort. Any sort of double-teaming is an invitation for a kick-out to Harden or Tyrese Maxey, who can punish defenses with their outside shot or driving ability.

Toronto matches up far better against smaller, quicker opponents, with Embiid likely to have a monster series against the Raptors' collection of undersized bigs.

East No. 8: Brooklyn Nets

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Nightmare Team to Face: Toronto Raptors

Season Record Against: 2-2

Key Concern: Kyrie Irving's availability

Current vaccine mandates prevent Irving from playing home games in Brooklyn. Should the Nets face off against the Raptors, Irving wouldn't be eligible to play at all.

This would be a nightmare scenario for the Nets, who still don't know when they'll see Ben Simmons for the first time. Asking Kevin Durant to win a playoff series without his two co-stars isn't impossible but could lead to a lot of extra wear and tear for a player who's already missed significant time this season with a sprained MCL.

Brooklyn doesn't have a dominant big to punish the Raptors inside (no, Andre Drummond doesn't count), and the Raptors have enough length on the wing with OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes to force Durant into difficult shots.

The good news for the Nets? This playoff meeting is extremely unlikely since Brooklyn and Toronto could finish at the seventh and eighth seeds. There's also a chance vaccine mandates could change between now and mid-April when the playoffs begin.

West No. 1: Phoenix Suns

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Nightmare Team to Face: Golden State Warriors

Season Record Against: 1-2

Key Concern: Poor regular-season showings

A Western Conference Finals between the Suns and Warriors would delight NBA fans, but it's the one team that Phoenix should wish to avoid.

The Suns are a sparkling 47-8 against every team outside of Golden State this season when Chris Paul plays, and the Warriors are the only team in the NBA the Suns don't have a .500 record or better against.

For further context, Phoenix has a net rating of plus-6.3 against all West teams this season, yet in three games versus the Warriors, this rating has plummeted to minus-7.3. Of their 14 Western Conference opponents, Golden State is the only team to feature a positive net rating against the Suns.

Even more potentially frightening, the Suns have yet to face the Warriors with a healthy Klay Thompson this season. Following a slow start in his return from injuries, Thompson is now averaging 25.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists on 38.7 percent shooting from three over his last three games.

Phoenix has been the best team in basketball nearly all season and is the first to officially clinch a playoff spot. If there's one matchup the Suns should fear, however, it's versus Golden State.

West No. 2: Memphis Grizzlies

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Nightmare Team to Face: Dallas Mavericks

Season Record Against: 1-3

Key Concern: Who guards Luka Doncic?

The Mavericks are the only projected playoff team to have beaten the Grizzlies three times this season, with the strong play of Doncic as a major reason why.

The 23-year-old is averaging a near-triple-double with 30.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 8.7 assists while connecting on 53.0 percent shooting overall. The Grizzlies don't have enough quality wing defenders to slow Doncic down throughout the course of a game, much less a series.

Dallas' defense has held strong this season against Ja Morant and Co., holding them to an offensive rating of 95.1, the worst Memphis has registered against any opponent. The Grizzlies offense overall this season is tied with the Phoenix Suns at No. 4 with a 113.4 rating, so the work the Mavericks have done has been remarkable.

After falling in the playoffs in the first round each of the last two years, the Mavs should come in extra hungry to finally advance and should view Memphis as an easier opponent than the Kawhi Leonard- and Paul George-led Los Angeles Clippers teams from the past two seasons.

West No. 3: Golden State Warriors

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Nightmare Team to Face: Utah Jazz

Season Record Against: 2-1

Key Concern: Controlling the glass

While a 2-1 record against the Jazz looks pretty good, the Warriors got clobbered in their most recent meeting, a 111-85 loss at Utah on Feb. 9.

Part of the reason? The rebounding battle, which Golden State has failed to win in three meetings against the Jazz. While the Warriors are eighth overall in glass cleaning this season (51.0 percent), they've pulled down just 44.8 percent of their chances in three games against Utah, their worst mark against any opponent this season.

Rudy Gobert is averaging a whopping 18.5 rebounds per game to go along with his 16.0 points and 2.5 assists on 70.0 percent shooting against Golden State. In the lone contest he missed in the season series, backup Hassan Whiteside pulled down 17 boards, blocked seven shots and was a plus-35.

No matter if it's Kevon Looney, Draymond Green or second-year big man James Wiseman playing minutes at center in the postseason, Utah is going to have a significant size and/or experience advantage.

Utah has also matched Golden State in three-point efficiency this season (36.3 percent), with Stephen Curry struggling overall in his three meetings versus the Jazz (19.0 points on 35.3 percent shooting overall and 30.3 from deep).

West No. 4: Utah Jazz

Matt York/Associated Press

Nightmare Team to Face: Phoenix Suns

Season Record Against: 1-2

Key Concern: The best defense in the West

Utah's usually elite defense has fallen to 11th this season, the result of Rudy Gobert missing time with injury and the lack of perimeter stoppers on the roster. A No. 1-ranked offense (116.1 rating) has kept Utah in the top four this season.

When relying on winning shootouts most nights to survive, the last team you want to run into is one that features plus defenders all over the court. Phoenix has posted the best defensive rating in the West this season with a unit led by Mikal Bridges, Chris Paul and Jae Crowder.

In his lone game against the Suns this season, Donovan Mitchell made just two of his nine shots from inside the arc and should have Bridges glued to him all series. Utah's second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic (18.1 points per game), averaged just 9.0 points on 30.8 percent shooting in his two meetings against Phoenix.

No team has exploited the Jazz defense more than the Suns this season, either.

Phoenix has an offensive rating of 118.9 versus Utah, a mark 9.2 points higher than its regular-season average.

West No. 5: Dallas Mavericks

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Nightmare Team to Face: Phoenix Suns

Season Record Against: 0-3

Key Concern: Mikal Bridges' defense

The Mavs could win a series on the back of Luka Doncic alone, although the Suns possess the best personnel of any team to slow the three-time All-Star down.

Bridges is one of the few players who has the size, quickness and length (7'1" wingspan) to make life difficult for Doncic, who is one of the greatest scorers and playmakers in the game today.

In Doncic's lone game against the Suns this season, Bridges put on a masterclass of how to guard the superstar. In over six minutes of matchup time, Doncic finished with three total points, going 1-of-2 from the field while turning the ball over three times. Bridges disrupted a high pass from the 6'7" Doncic meant for Kristaps Porzingis and later forced him into a travel violation as well.

Dallas frequently tried to screen Bridges off Doncic only to have Jae Crowder and Devin Booker do admirable jobs as well. Doncic finished the game just 9-of-23 overall from the field (39.1 percent) and 2-of-9 from three (22.2 percent).

While teams such as the Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz may not have the wing defenders needed to stop Doncic, the Suns are built to contain him.

West No. 6: Denver Nuggets

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Nightmare Team to Face: Utah Jazz

Season Record Against: 0-4

Key Concern: Lack of perimeter threats if Jamal Murray can't return

Denver got broomed by Utah this season, going winless in the four-game series while registering a net rating of minus-11.2 overall.

The scary part? This was with Nikola Jokic (who deserves a second straight MVP) triple-doubling to the tune of 25.0 points, 14.0 rebounds and 10.3 assists in just 29.7 minutes while shooting 63.6 percent overall and 54.5 percent from three. With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. still sidelined with injuries, Denver just doesn't have the firepower on the wing to put pressure on Utah's soft perimeter defense.

This changes if Murray can come back in time for the playoffs from a torn ACL, although that prospect remains very much up in the air, according to Mike Singer of the Denver Post:

"Nearly 11 months after tearing his left ACL, Murray is getting physically closer to returning, although no return is assured this season, league sources told the Denver Post. With a month left in the regular season, two league sources described [the] chances of his return at 50-50 at this point. Another league source emphasized the decision on when to return lies with him."

We saw a dynamic first-round series between the Nuggets and the Jazz in the playoff bubble two years ago, with Murray and Donovan Mitchell trading 50-point games.

If Murray can't return, we've seen that strong play alone from Jokic won't be enough to make it past Utah.

West No. 7: Minnesota Timberwolves

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Nightmare Team to Face: Los Angeles Clippers

Season Record Against: 1-3

Key Concern: Potential Paul George plus Kawhi Leonard returns

While every team in the West would fear the Clippers if they get a healthy George and Leonard back, maybe no team should more than the Wolves.

George has already torched Minnesota on three occasions this season, averaging 25.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.3 steals on 45.5 percent shooting with a plus-minus of plus-20.4, his highest against any opponent. Patrick Beverley doesn't have the size to slow down his former teammate, and Jarred Vanderbilt isn't quick enough to stick to George, either.

George or Leonard could make it a long series for Anthony Edwards as well, both as lockdown defenders and offensive forces.

Even if both remain out, Los Angeles has the frontcourt size and muscle (Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris Sr., Robert Covington) to make looks difficult for Karl-Anthony Towns. Clippers head coach Ty Lue, a 2016 champion with the Cleveland Cavaliers, is a mastermind when it comes to picking apart young teams throughout the course of a series. Many of these Wolves, including Edwards, Towns and D'Angelo Russell, would only be playing in their first or second ever playoff series.

While an eventual meeting is unlikely given that the teams project to be the seventh and eighth overall seeds, Minnesota has to hope to avoid the Clippers at any point.

West No. 8: Los Angeles Clippers

Brandon Dill/Associated Press

Nightmare Team to Face: Memphis Grizzlies

Season Record Against: 0-4

Key Concern: Ja Morant

Memphis is the only team to defeat the Clippers four times this season, and the beatings have come in a variety of ways.

With and without Paul George active. With and without Ja Morant active. At home. On the road. In October, November, January and February. Loss, loss, loss and loss.

This is a Grizzlies team that won't fear any roster variation the Clippers put out, whether George and Kawhi Leonard can make their return to the court or not.

Morant got a taste of the playoffs last season when he averaged 30.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists in a first-round loss to the Utah Jazz. In three games against the Clippers this season, he's posting a similar 28.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists while shooting 59.3 percent overall.

Even if George and/or Leonard return for a series and is assigned to stop the All-Star point guard, Morant should be happy to be a table-setter for Desmond Bane and Dillons Brooks, each of whom is averaging 17.8 points per game or more this season. With one of the best screeners in the NBA in Steven Adams working to open him up, Morant should still feast as a scorer as well.

A 2-7 Grizzlies-Clippers first-round series is entirely possible, one that may not last long for L.A.

   

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