John Amis/Associated Press

NFL Playoff Picture 2021: Wild-Card Standings and Week 11 Super Bowl Odds

Joe Tansey

It makes perfect sense that the one piece of postseason clarity we have during an NFL season full of surprises is from a team whose starting running back is out for months.

The Tennessee Titans continue to win without Derrick Henry, and they emerged from Week 10 with a two-game lead in the AFC. Mike Vrabel's team avoided a home upset against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, and for the most part, it has steered clear of the surprising losses suffered by Super Bowl contenders in both conferences.

Tennessee owns head-to-head tiebreakers over the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, and its conference record is two games better in the loss column compared to that of the Baltimore Ravens.

Despite their success, the Titans still have the sixth-best odds to capture the Super Bowl. The Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit atop that list.

Tampa Bay is in first place in the NFC South, but one more bad result like Week 10's loss to the Washington Football Team could drag it into the murky waters of the wild-card race.

Super Bowl Odds

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Buffalo: +600 (bet $100 to win $600)

Tampa Bay: +650

Los Angeles Rams: +700

Dallas: +900

Green Bay: +1000

Arizona: +1100

Kansas City: +1100

Tennessee: +1200

Baltimore: +1400

Los Angeles Chargers: +2500

New England: +2500

Cleveland: +4000

Cincinnati: +5000

Las Vegas: +6000

New Orleans: +6000

Indianapolis: +6000

Minnesota: +8000

Seattle: +8000

Pittsburgh: +8000

Philadelphia: +10000

Denver: +10000

San Francisco: +13000

Carolina: +15000

Washington: +30000

New York Giants: +50000

Chicago: +50000

Miami: +50000

Jacksonville: +50000

Atlanta: +50000

Detroit: +100000

New York Jets: +100000

Jacksonville: +100000

AFC Playoff Picture

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Division Leaders

1. Tennessee (8-2)

2. Buffalo (6-3)

3. Baltimore (6-3)

4. Kansas City (6-4)

Tennessee is in the best position of any NFL team going into Week 11.

The Titans have all the necessary tiebreakers against the other divisional leaders, and they have a favorable schedule ahead. The AFC South leader still has to play the Houston Texans twice, as well as the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins.

Buffalo rebounded from its loss to Jacksonville with a win over the New York Jets to move its AFC East record to 3-0. That could be significant for its tiebreaker against the New England Patriots, whom they have to play twice before the season is out.

Baltimore can earn the upper hand in the AFC North throughout the second half of the season. It has five games left against divisional foes.

Kansas City grabbed an advantage in the AFC West on Sunday night by blowing out the Las Vegas Raiders on the road.

              

Wild-Card Race

5. Pittsburgh (5-3-1)

6. New England (6-4)

7. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)

8. Las Vegas (5-4)

9. Cincinnati (5-4)

10. Indianapolis (5-5)

11. Cleveland (5-5)

12. Denver (5-5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers' tie with the Detroit Lions threw a new wrinkle into the wild-card race.

Mike Tomlin's team is ahead of New England and the long list of five-win teams because it has a better win percentage and one fewer loss.

The Steelers can create separation in the wild-card hunt if they beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11 and take care of their other divisional matchups with the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals.

New England appears safe at 6-4. Its sights may be set on the AFC East title since it has to play Buffalo twice around its Week 14 bye.

We could see much more separation in the wild-card race after Week 11 given Pittsburgh plays the Chargers, the Indianapolis Colts visit the Bills and the Raiders go head-to-head with the Cincinnati Bengals.

NFC Playoff Picture

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

Division Leaders

1. Green Bay (8-2)

2. Arizona (8-2)

3. Dallas (7-2)

4. Tampa Bay (6-3)

The Green Bay Packers are in great shape on top of the NFC since they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Arizona Cardinals.

Green Bay's biggest game in the next few weeks comes in Week 12 at home against the Los Angeles Rams. A win in that matchup would give the Packers a key advantage over another contender out of the NFC West.

The Dallas Cowboys are in firm control of the NFC East. Their most significant game left in terms of the playoff picture comes against Arizona in Week 17.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on a two-game losing streak, but they can correct its struggles against the New York Giants in Week 11. The Buccaneers still have to play the New Orleans Saints one more time and the Carolina Panthers twice, so they control their divisional fate.

           

Wild-Card Race

5. Los Angeles Rams (7-2)

6. New Orleans (5-4)

7. Carolina (5-5)

8. Minnesota (4-5)

9. Atlanta (4-5)

10. Philadelphia (4-6)

11. San Francisco (3-5)

12. Washington (3-6)

13. New York Giants (3-6)

14. Seattle (3-6)

15. Chicago (3-6)

The Rams, Saints and Panthers are the likely wild-card teams out of the NFC.

Los Angeles has a two-game lead over New Orleans and Carolina, and it can boost its standing with a win over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night.

Carolina's playoff hopes received a boost through Cam Newton's return to the franchise. He had a rushing and passing touchdown in a brief role Sunday against the Kyler Murray-less Cardinals.

The Panthers need to beat Washington and Miami in their next two games to set themselves up for a daunting closing stretch out of its Week 13 bye. Carolina finishes with Atlanta, Buffalo, New Orleans and two games against Tampa Bay. If it wins three or four of those games, it should be in great shape.

The other wild-card contenders with four wins have to hope New Orleans and Carolina slip up in the coming weeks to get back into the race.

New Orleans makes a trip to Philadelphia in Week 11. The Eagles not only need to win that game for their own playoff hopes, but they could also drag other teams back into the hunt.

             

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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