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Astros vs. Braves: Who Has the Edge at Every Position in 2021 World Series?

Joel Reuter

The 2021 World Series will begin Tuesday night from Minute Maid Park in Houston, as the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros square off for a best-of-seven series to decide who will reign supreme in the baseball world.

Both teams punched their ticket to the Fall Classic with Game 6 wins in the League Championship Series, which meant three off days for the Astros and two off days for the Braves before the World Series gets underway.

That will allow both teams to reshuffle their starting rotations and to rest up before the 8:09 ET first pitch on Tuesday evening.

Before the series begins, let's take a position-by-position look at which team has the edge at each spot on the diamond. Baseball is a game where the sum of a team can be greater than its parts, but this should serve as a good preview of what's to come in the series ahead.

Regular-season production, more recent postseason production, and overall track record all played a role in determining who held the edge.

Catcher

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Matchup: Martin Maldonado (HOU) vs. Travis d'Arnaud (ATL)

While he provides very little offensively, Martin Maldonado has been a rock behind the plate for the Astros all year. He caught nearly 70 percent of the team's innings during the regular season while throwing out 40 percent of base stealers, and he deserves a ton of credit for anchoring a young pitching staff that exceeded expectations.

On the other side, Travis d'Arnaud offers significantly more upside at the plate as last year's NL Silver Slugger winner. However, he missed a significant chunk of the 2021 season with a torn ligament in his thumb, and things have never really clicked at the plate since he returned.

Despite going 2-for-29 with 10 strikeouts so far this postseason, Maldonado will have the bigger impact on the World Series thanks to his work behind the plate and handling the staff.

Edge: HOU

First Base

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Matchup: Yuli Gurriel (HOU) vs. Freddie Freeman (ATL)

In his age-37 season, Yuli Gurriel put together the best offensive season of his stateside career, winning the AL batting title with a .317 average. He posted a 131 OPS+ with 31 doubles, 15 home runs, 81 RBI, 83 runs scored and 3.7 WAR during the regular season, and he went 10-for-22 with six RBI in six games against the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS.

Meanwhile, it was more of the same from reigning NL MVP winner Freddie Freeman. He hit .300/.393/.503 with 31 home runs, 83 RBI and 120 runs scored, and he picked up his production in the second half with a .927 OPS in 307 plate appearances.

After a slow start to the postseason, Freeman homered in Game 4 and Game 5 of the NLCS. This matchup is closer than Atlanta fans might want to admit, but the edge still has to go to Freeman.

Edge: ATL

Second Base

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Matchup: Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. Ozzie Albies (ATL)

Jose Altuve and Ozzie Albies are two of the most productive offensive second basemen in MLB, but both have been surprisingly quiet in the playoffs. That's why both players have a chance to be significant X-factors in the World Series.

Altuve went 3-for-24 in the ALCS, while Albies is 11-for-42 overall in the playoffs and 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position.

With a .923 OPS and 21 home runs in 73 career playoff games, Altuve is one of the most productive postseason hitters of his generation. But with both guys scuffling a bit at the plate, this one is a coin toss heading into the Fall Classic.

Edge: EVEN

Third Base

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Matchup: Alex Bregman (HOU) vs. Austin Riley (ATL)

After missing more than two months with a quad strain, Alex Bregman returned in late August and posted a .760 OPS with eight extra-base hits in his final 138 plate appearances. He had only one RBI in the ALCS while going 5-for-23, and he is still working toward being the same impact player he was a few years ago.

One of the breakout stars of 2021, Austin Riley hit .303/.367/.531 with 33 doubles, 33 home runs and 107 RBI in a 6.1 WAR season to help fill the void left behind by the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. to a season-ending injury. He has already come up with some big hits this postseason, and he'll be penciled into the cleanup spot in the Atlanta lineup.

Both players are capable of making a splash, but Riley has been the superior player in 2021.

Edge: ATL

Shortstop

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Matchup: Carlos Correa (HOU) vs. Dansby Swanson (ATL)

In a contract year, Carlos Correa led all shortstops with 7.2 WAR. He posted a 131 OPS+ with 34 doubles, 26 home runs and 92 RBI at the plate, and his 21 DRS tied for the MLB lead among all players. He has produced in the playoffs throughout his career, but he went 3-for-20 with seven strikeouts over the final five games of the ALCS.

After Dansby Swanson posted a career-high 111 OPS+ while finishing 18th in NL MVP voting last year, his triple-slash numbers dipped across the board this season, but he set new personal bests in hits (146), doubles (33), home runs (27), RBI (88) and runs scored (78). The 27-year-old is only 9-for-38 this postseason with one extra-base hit and one RBI.

No disrespect to Swanson, who is a solid all-around player, but this one is a clear advantage for Houston.

Edge: HOU

Left Field

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Matchup: Michael Brantley (HOU) vs. Eddie Rosario (ATL)

With a .310/.367/.474 line in three years with the Houston Astros, veteran Michael Brantley is one of the best pure hitters in baseball, and he hasn't lost a step in his age-34 season. He is 14-for-45 with eight RBI in 10 games this postseason out of the No. 2 spot in the Houston lineup.

The consistency that Brantley brings to the table is great, but it's hard to compare him to Eddie Rosario, who is arguably the hottest hitter on the planet right now.

The trade deadline pickup took home NLCS honors by going 14-for-25 with one double, one triple, three home runs and nine RBI against the Boston Red Sox. He had four-hit games in Games 2 and 4 of the series, and his three-run homer in Game 6 was the game-winner.

Edge: ATL

Center Field

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Matchup: Chas McCormick (HOU) vs. Adam Duvall (ATL)

A collision with the wall during the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox kept Jake Meyers out of action in the ALCS. While he has not yet been ruled out for the World Series, we'll assume Chas McCormick will again be handling center field duties for the Astros.

The 26-year-old McCormick posted a 107 OPS+ with 14 home runs and 50 RBI in 320 plate appearances during the regular season, and he was 4-for-14 in the ALCS. Jose Siri also made two starts in center field in the ALCS and went 1-for-8 with two RBI.

Center field duties have fallen to Adam Duvall in Atlanta since he was re-acquired in July. He has handled himself well defensively (4 DRS, 19.4 UZR/150) and posted a 104 OPS+ with 16 home runs and 45 RBI in 55 games following the trade. He is just 8-for-35 with 11 strikeouts this postseason, but he has game-changing power potential.

Edge: ATL

Right Field

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Matchup: Kyle Tucker (HOU) vs. Joc Pederson (ATL)

After a breakout season in 2020, Kyle Tucker has continued his ascent as one of the best young hitters in baseball this year. The 24-year-old had a 147 OPS+ with 37 doubles, 30 home runs, 92 RBI and 14 steals in a 5.7 WAR season, and he has continued to pace the Houston offense in October with four home runs and 15 RBI in 10 games.

However, he doesn't wear pearls, and he didn't celebrate clinching a World Series berth with a glass of wine on the field.

Simply put, Joc Pederson has been this postseason's most interesting player thanks to his big personality and unlikely accessory. He also has three home runs and nine RBI in 10 games, though he was only 5-for-22 with eight strikeouts in the NLCS.

Pederson is a lot of fun and a dangerous power bat, but Tucker is one of the game's budding superstars.

Edge: HOU

Designated Hitter

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Matchup: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Jorge Soler (ATL)

Yordan Alvarez can just flat-out rake.

He had a 136 OPS+ with 35 doubles, 33 home runs and 104 RBI during the regular season, and he went 3-for-11 with a double and a home run in the ALDS before feasting on Red Sox pitching in the ALCS. The 24-year-old went 12-for-23 with five extra-base hits in the series to take home MVP honors, including 9-for-13 over the final three games.

A positive COVID-19 test knocked Jorge Soler off Atlanta's postseason roster during the NLDS, and when he returned during the NLCS, there was no longer a spot for him in the starting lineup. The prolific slugger had a 128 OPS+ with 14 home runs and 33 RBI in 55 games after the Braves acquired him at the deadline, and he can make a major impact during the games at Minute Maid Park.

Edge: HOU

Starting Pitchers

Framber Valdez Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

Matchup

HOU: Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy

ATL: Charlie Morton, Max Fried, Ian Anderson

With Lance McCullers Jr. sidelined and Zack Greinke only stretched out enough to work a few innings, the Astor will rely on the young trio of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy in the starting rotation.

Valdez (8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER) and Garcia (5.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER) both threw gems their last time out against the Red Sox in the ALCS after shaky starts to the postseason, while Urquidy (1.2 IP, 5 H, 5 ER) was knocked around in his only start of the playoffs in Game 3 of the ALCS.

Cristian Javier, Jake Odorizzi and Greinke will all be candidates to either start Game 4 or chew up bulk innings behind an opener.

For Atlanta, veteran Charlie Morton, young left-hander Max Fried and rookie Ian Anderson have been the three staples of the starting rotation all year.

Morton has a 3.77 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 14.1 innings this postseason. Fried struggled in his two NLCS starts against the Dodgers with 16 hits and seven earned runs allowed in 10.2 innings. Anderson has more postseason experience than most 23-year-olds and has thrown the ball well, but he's also been on a short leash.

Left-hander Drew Smyly is the leading candidate for the Game 4 start or bulk work behind an opener.

Edge: EVEN

Key Relievers

Tyler Matzek Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

Matchup

HOU: Cristian Javier/Phil Maton/Kendall Graveman/Ryne Stanek/Ryan Pressly

ATL: Jesse Chavez/A.J. Minter/Luke Jackson/Tyler Matzek/Will Smith

The Astros had the worst bullpen ERA of any team that reached the postseason this year with a 4.06 mark that ranked 15th in the majors, but their 3.42 ERA this postseason trails only the eliminated Los Angeles Dodgers.

The foursome Phil Maton (7 G, 1 HLD, 1.35 ERA), Kendall Graveman (6 G, 1-0, 2 HLD, 1.29 ERA), Ryne Stanek (8 G, 2-0, 1 HLD, 1.35 ERA) and Ryan Pressly (6 G, 1/1 SV, 1.50 ERA) has handled the bulk of the late-inning work, while Cristian Javier has tossed 7.2 scoreless innings in three appearances as a long reliever.

The Braves relief corps ranked 10th in the majors with a 3.97 ERA during the regular season. Their relievers have gone 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA while converting four of five save chances this October, and four of their five go-to arms have been virtually untouchable.

Jesse Chavez (5 G, 1 HLD, 0.00 ERA) started Game 4 of the NLCS with a scoreless inning as an opener, while Tyler Matzek has worked 10.1 scoreless innings over nine appearances with two wins, four holds and 17 strikeouts. A.J. Minter (5 G, 2 HLD, 0.00 ERA) has also put up nothing but zeroes for 7.1 innings, and closer Will Smith (7 G, 0.00 ERA) has converted each of his four save chances. The only shaky arm has been Luke Jackson (8 G, 2 HLD, 0-1, 9.00 ERA), but he had a brilliant 1.98 ERA and 31 holds in 71 appearances during the regular season.

The battle of the bullpen could be the X-factor that decides this series, and Matzek has been a difference-making weapon.

Edge: ATL

    

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.

Final Breakdown

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A team is usually greater than the sum of its parts, so this is not necessarily an indication of which club has the upper hand in the series, but here's a position-by-position recap of who we think has the edge at each spot:

Disagree? I'll see you in the comment section.

   

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