Christophe Ena/Associated Press

French Open 2020 Men's Final: Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal Predictions

Joe Tansey

The latest chapter in the storied rivalry between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be penned Sunday at Roland-Garros.

Djokovic and Nadal will face off for the 56th time in their careers and for the eighth time at the French Open.

Nadal has been more dominant on clay than Djokovic in his career with 12 French Open titles compared to one from the Serb.

The Spaniard also carries an advantage in the current event when it comes to time on court. Nadal has won each of his matches in straight sets, while Djokovic dropped three sets in his last two matches. 

Earning a seventh consecutive three-set win on the Paris clay could be difficult for Nadal since both of their previous championship meetings in France lasted four sets.

        

Prediction

Rafael Nadal over Novak Djokovic

Nadal should be the pick to win against every opponent he faces on the Paris clay. 

The Spaniard has won all but three of the men's singles titles at Roland-Garros since 2005. Stan Wawrinka, Roger Federer and Djokovic took one crown each in that span. 

Nadal defeated Djokovic in each of their last three clay-court meetings and is 6-1 against the top seed at the French Open.

Djokovic's last win over Nadal in Paris was in the 2015 quarterfinals, and he only managed to win two sets off Nadal in the two finals in which they have met on the red clay. 

In addition to having a poor history against Nadal on the surface, Djokovic has not looked as dominant as the No. 2 seed over the last two rounds.

Djokovic dropped the first set to Pablo Carreno Busta in the quarterfinals and failed to close out Stefanos Tsitsipas in three sets. After he did not convert on match point, Djokovic lost the third and fourth sets before rallying to defeat the Greek player.

If Djokovic is susceptible to even one break of serve, or he does not take advantage of an opportunity against Nadal, he could come out on the losing side.

The weakness Nadal could exploit is on Djokovic's second serve. The No. 1 seed converted 47 percent of the points on his second serve Friday, which was 2 percentage points lower than Tsitsipas recorded. 

Nadal was better than Diego Schwartzman in all major stat categories. He won 53 percent of his second-serve points and took 40 of 84 receiving points in the straight-set win. 

If Nadal creates some early break-point chances on Djokovic's serve, he could sprint out to an advantage that he does not give up. 

Nadal captured five of his 12 French Open titles through straight-set wins. Each of those triumphs occurred against different players. If he sweeps Djokovic Sunday, that total will be boosted to six. 

In his last three French Open finals, Nadal won eight of his nine sets by three games or more. He finished off the 2019 championship match with consecutive 6-1 wins over Dominic Thiem.

If he flexes that dominance while taking advantage of the small weaknesses Djokovic flashed in the last two rounds, Nadal could come away with his 13th French Open crown.

           

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from RolandGarros.com and ATPTour.com

   

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