Lynn Hey/Associated Press

2020 NBA Draft Big Board: Is Anyone Better Than LaMelo Ball?

Jonathan Wasserman

With the NBA draft lottery set, teams can start filling in their boards with a clearer picture of where they'll pick.

We've shaped up our board as well after reviewing more tape and talking to scouts. 

While many question the star power at the top, this particular class could be deep with role players, and teams picking outside the lottery could wind up getting strong value relative to past drafts.

Nos. 30-26

Isaac Brekken/Associated Press

30. Jahmi'us Ramsey (Texas Tech, SG, Freshman)

Buying: Ramsey pops because of his physical profile and shooting stroke. He hit 42.6 percent of threes with a shot form that's easy to buy. He also graded in the 88th percentile out of isolation, and there should be a scoring specialist role waiting for Ramsey to fill that calls for instant offense.

Hesitant about: His 64.1 free-throw percentage is concerning, considering how important shooting will be for his future. A low free-throw rate (3.7 attempts per 40 minutes), tough shot selection and defensive lapses hint at Ramsey being difficult to trust in terms of consistency. 

       

29. Malachi Flynn (San Diego State, PG, Junior)

Buying: With a masterful command running pick-and-rolls (96th percentile), Flynn's ability to manipulate, pass, pull up and drive off hesitation should help him carve out an NBA role. Between his decision-making (5.1 assists, 1.8 turnovers as a redshirt junior), deep shooting range (2.4 3PTM) and shot-making versatility off the catch, dribble or one foot (43.5 percent runners), Flynn possesses A-plus skills and intangibles that seem worth betting on.

Hesitant about: His thin frame and lack of athleticism create the perception of a backup point guard as a best-case scenario. The eye test questions whether he can pull off the same plays in the pros as he did in college. 

     

28. Leandro Bolmaro (Barcelona, SG/SF, 2000)

Buying: Bolmaro's ball-handling and playmaking skills are legitimate, and teams should be able to use him as a wing creator and ball-screen operator. He'll be a capable catch-and-shooter from the corners.

Hesitant about: I'm hesitant on Bolmaro's ability to create scoring chances for himself outside of driving. He doesn't get into his pull-up smoothly, and he's not a plus shooter in general. 

      

27. Desmond Bane (TCU, SG, Senior)

Buying: Bane's skill set and style of play are designed to fit a supporting role in any offense. As long as his core strengths translate, it's easy to picture a lengthy NBA career. And I'm buying his shooting, passing and defensive IQ carrying over. 

Hesitant about: I'm not as worried about his shot mechanics as some scouts. But there are reasons to be hesitant about his ability to beat defenders off the dribble or separate inside the arc without any speed or lift.

     

26. RJ Hampton (New Zealand Breakers, SG, 2001)

Buying: Hampton's size (6'5") and explosiveness should keep working in transition and off ball-screen drives. He shows enough passing skill for teams to use him as a pick-and-roll setup guard. 

Hesitant about: Hampton isn't sharp enough creating with the ball to be a primary handler. And I'm not sold on his off-ball offense or shooting to become a strength.

Nos. 25-21

John Beale/Associated Press

25. Skylar Mays (LSU, SG, Senior)

Buying: Versatility and intangibles should help Mays overcome the idea that he doesn't have one obvious position or bankable skill. I'm buying his ability to make it work with his crafty creation moves, competent shooting and defensive IQ.

Hesitant about: A 22-year-old who blossomed late as a shooter and doesn't project as a plus playmaker, Mays is likely a second-round pick. Traditionally, his scouting profile would suggest a role-player ceiling.

      

24. Aaron Nesmith (Vanderbilt, SF, Sophomore)

Buying: While Nesmith's 52.2 three-point percentage as a sophomore seems a bit fluky, given the 14-game sample size, I'm still buying his jump shot and shot-making versatility to catch-and-shoot off spot-ups and screens.

Hesitant about: He totaled 13 assists in 500 minutes. There is nothing wrong with taking a shooting specialist in the first round, but I'm hesitant about whether he can be used to put the ball on the floor and make plays.

        

23. Precious Achiuwa (Memphis, PF/C, Freshman)

Buying: Achiuwa's size, strength, length and athleticism should translate to easy baskets from off the ball as well as defensive versatility/playmaking. He's flashed enough skill to feel optimistic that in space, he should be able to capitalize at an acceptable rate on spot-up threes and open driving lanes.

Hesitant about: He's a below-average shooter, passer and decision-maker, which makes it difficult to buy any offensive upside. 

    

22. Xavier Tillman (Michigan State, PF/C, Junior)

Buying: Tillman's IQ at both ends is his No. 1 selling point. He figures to earn his money by consistently making impact defensive reads from on and off the ball. He possesses defensive specialist potential. Offensively, his passing off short rolls and post-ups should translate to open looks for shooters.

Hesitant about: It's tough to picture Tillman scoring outside of basic finishing unless he can develop an outside shot. Maybe he can build on making 13 three-pointers as a junior. 

     

21. Saddiq Bey (Villanova, SF/PF, Sophomore)

Buying: Bey's 6'8", 216-pound frame and 45.1 three-point percentage as a sophomore create a high floor. Worst-case scenario, he should stick in a rotation by stretching the floor and knocking down jumpers off movement.

Hesitant about: His burst and off-the-dribble game are underwhelming for creating and separating inside the arc. I'd also be nervous to assign him on defense to quicker wings.

Nos. 20-16

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

20. Cassius Winston (Michigan State, PG, Senior)

Buying: Winston's shooting/touch profile is too strong to bet against: 43.2 percent from three, 46.9 percent on spot-ups, 58.1 percent off screens, 42.1 percent on pull-ups, 85.3 percent free throws and 44.9 percent on runners. Elite IQ and poise suggest his pick-and-roll ball-handling (84th percentile) should also work well in the pros.

Hesitant about: The only question about Winston is whether he can continue executing despite lacking any plus physical trait. He graded in the 25th percentile in transition and plays without any explosion or bounce.

      

19. Tyrell Terry (Stanford, PG/SG, Freshman)

Buying: I typically put extra stock into elite touch, and Terry has it, having shot 40.8 percent from three, 11-of-19 off screens and 89.1 percent on free throws. He ranked in the 99th percentile on catch-and-shoots. He also possesses better playmaking instincts/skills than his 3.2 assists suggest.

Hesitant about: Can Terry create separation for himself without much size or athleticism?

     

18. Grant Riller (Charleston, PG/SG, Senior)

Buying: I'm buying Riller's scoring ability based on his sharp creation skills, tough shot-making and the acceleration and quickness to separate. A career 61.6 true shooting percentage highlights just how efficient he was in college.

Hesitant about: He's 23 years old and didn't make any notable improvements since his junior season. It's worth questioning his line-drive three-ball and the fact he didn't face many quality opponents throughout college.

       

17. Kira Lewis Jr. (Alabama, PG, Sophomore)

Buying: Lewis' speed with the ball seems suited for a faster-paced NBA game. His skill set in the half court is also well-rounded enough for him to continue generating offense in different ways: as a penetrator, drive-and-kick passer, spot-up shooter and off-the-dribble scorer using pull-ups and floaters.

Hesitant about: He can do it all, but can he do it efficiently? I question how well he'll execute at 165 pounds without great leaping ability or trustworthy decision-making.

      

16. Aleksej Pokusevski (Olympiacos II, PF/C, 2001)

Buying: Pokusevski's skill level and fluidity are just too enticing. For the youngest player in the draft, it's worth betting on the flashes of open-floor ball-handling, shooting versatility and passing, as well as his execution and body improving over the next few years.

Hesitant about: The idea of Pokusevski is exciting, but is it realistic? Drafting him top 20 means rolling the dice on an 18-year-old 7-footer who spent the season shooting 40.4 percent in Greece's second division after shooting 29.7 percent last summer at the U18 European Championships.

Nos. 15-11

Michael Woods/Associated Press

15. Tyrese Haliburton (Iowa State, PG/SG, Sophomore)

Buying: Haliburton's passing IQ is sure to carry over. He'll continue finding ways to create for and find teammates in transition and off screens. And despite unorthodox mechanics, I'm buying his spot-up shooting numbers (49.3 percent).

Selling: Haliburton's lack of blow-by burst and pull-up game limit his scoring potential. And in today's league, teams want primary ball-handlers who can score unless they can surround limited guards with enough offensive weapons.

       

14. Josh Green (Arizona, SG/SF, Freshman)

Buying: I'm buying Green's explosiveness for transition offense and lateral quickness for defending and closing out. He should be able to complement his athletic ability and defense with enough spot-up shooting, a strong floater game off drives and plus passing instincts.

Hesitant about: Green shows limited ball-handling and creation skills for running pick-and-rolls or scoring out of isolation. It will put pressure on his shooting to be consistent, and his jump-shot form may need fine-tuning.

       

13. Jalen Smith (Maryland, PF/C, Sophomore)

Buying: Nicknamed Stix out of high school, Smith now looks jacked at 6'10" after two years at Maryland and putting on considerable muscle. He's built to finish and rebound, wired to run and block shots and skilled enough to comfortably drill threes.

Hesitant about: He averaged fewer than one assist per game in both seasons, and he doesn't possess much of a face-up game, either to attack one-on-one or drive past closeouts.

    

12. Cole Anthony (North Carolina, PG, Freshman)

Buying: Scoring and shot-making will be Anthony's bread and butter. He graded in the 92nd percentile out of isolation and showed he can get to his pull-up from the mid-range and three. 

Hesitant about: I'd be hesitant about giving Anthony the keys to an offense. He's a better passer than his 4.0 assists/3.5 turnovers suggest, but his decision-making and tunnel vision inside the arc can be problematic. He may be better off as a scoring 2-guard.

      

11. Isaac Okoro (Auburn, SF/PF, Freshman)

Buying: Everything about Okoro screams pro, from his athleticism and strength to his efficient offensive game and defensive discipline. He makes few mistakes, plays in his comfort zone as a driver, cutter and passer and has the tools and mindset to be an effective, switchable defender. 

Hesitant about: Is it worth using a top-10 pick on a 6'6" forward who isn't a creator or shooter? He'll need to go from 0.7 threes per game on 28.6 percent to being a regular threat when left open to hold enough value on offense for most teams.

10. Tyrese Maxey (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)

James Crisp/Associated Press

What I'm buying

The arrow was pointing up for Tyrese Maxey opening night when he carried Kentucky past Michigan State with 26 points. And then the love started to fade as his shooting percentages started to fall. But I'm buying what we saw at Madison Square Garden. Maxey is a threatening three-level shot-maker, even if the numbers don't paint him as a shooter yet.

He's comfortable from NBA range or pulling up. He has the floater in his bag, and with a strong frame and coordination in the air, he's built to finish around the trees. He should continue to thrive as a pick-and-roll scorer after grading in the 86th percentile off ball screens, thanks to his dribble-jumper, runner and attacking game.

Maxey managed 14.0 points per game despite shooting poorly and sharing the ball with the SEC's leading assist man Ashton Hagans and conference Player of the Year Immanuel Quickley. Some scoring potential was masked, just as it was for former Kentucky guards Devin Booker and Tyler Herro.

      

Willing to bet on

Maxey's jumper looks better than the 29.2 three-point percentage suggests. I'm betting on his 83.3 percent free-throw mark being more indicative of his outside touch. 

       

Hesitant about

Maxey doesn't have the plus athletic ability that a guard like Donovan Mitchell can use to compensate for limited height. He'll be a 6'3" 2-guard who lacks explosion.

I'm not confident in his ability to facilitate or work as a lead decision-maker. Questionable feel as a playmaker could put extra pressure on his shot-making and scoring execution.

9. James Wiseman (Memphis, C, Freshman)

Karen Pulfer Focht/Associated Press

What I'm buying

At 7'1", 240 pounds with a 7'6" wingspan, James Wiseman's physical profile practically matches Joel Embiid's. And Wiseman may have a quicker jump around the basket, so I'm buying the elite finishing potential, as well as the shot-blocking. 

At the least, Wiseman should serve as an easy-basket weapon off dump-downs, lobs, missed shots and transition plays. The right coaching and development should turn him into a disruptive starting rim protector. 

      

Willing to bet on 

He'll go top-five in the draft based on his tools, athleticism and flashes of skill. I'm not willing to bet on all of them, but he does have soft enough mid-range and free-throw touch to think he can be a threat from the elbows and short corners.

And in space, he should be able to take advantage by using his length and release point to get hook shots and short fallaways over his man.

I'm also willing to buy Wiseman's defensive potential even though he doesn't possess the strongest awareness. At some point, he should be able to figure out how to use his reach and mobility to shrink the basket he's protecting. 

        

Hesitant about

I have a hard time believing Wiseman can be a featured scorer in an offense. He's not polished or creative with the ball, he rarely picks up assists, and he seems too far away to be a plus shooter anytime soon. 

His feel for the game also isn't strong. While his motor has been questioned in the past, I'm more concerned about the unnecessary step-backs, bites on fakes and blown pick-and-roll reads on defense.

      

No. 1 Pick Odds: +300

8. Patrick Williams (Florida State, SF/PF, Freshman)

Robert Franklin/Associated Press

What I'm buying

Patrick Williams should continue using his chiseled 6'8", 225-pound frame for finishing through contact and blowing up plays on defense. I'm buying his power, but also his finesse and touch, which showed on free throws (83.8 percent) and two-point jumpers (44.4 percent).

Skill versatility should ultimately allow coaches to use Williams in different ways offensively, both on and off the ball. 

       

Willing to bet on

Williams only averaged 9.2 points, so ranking him in the top 10 means betting on flashes. And based on the eye test and his age (19), I'm betting on the draft's youngest NCAA prospect to continue building on flashes of three-point range (16-of-50), pull-up shooting (41.9 percent), pick-and-roll ball-handling (0.96 PPP, 90th percentile) and defensive playmaking (30 blocks and 29 steals in 29 games).

He likely could have shown more in a larger role, but Florida State had an older team that shared the ball. Continuing to polish each skill in his particular set could create a unique trajectory for this draft prospect.

        

Hesitant about

Williams is raw and clearly requires significant improvement to justify top-10 status. There isn't an obvious NBA comparison with his build and skill set, so it's not easy to picture what his upside would look like.

Right now, he's not an advanced creator or shooter, and it's worth questioning his lateral foot speed for defending wings.

      

No. 1 Pick Odds: N/A

7. Devin Vassell (Florida State, SF, Sophomore)

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

What I'm buying

Devin Vassell's three-and-D wing identity is fueled by consecutive years shooting over 40 percent from three, obvious defensive IQ and athleticism to act on his reads. I'm buying that identity carrying over based on his 6'6" positional size, credible shooting numbers/mechanics and consistent defensive plays that ace the eye test.

His core strengths should translate, and they create a high floor and player type valued by every team.

       

Willing to bet on

Spot-ups and transition made up 58 percent of Vassell's offense, but he also improved as a scorer off the dribble. He still isn't a useful ball-handler or creator, but I'm willing to bet on the flashes of pull-ups (31 makes, 38.3 percent) and the occasional off-balance shot-making from the mid-range. Vassell has a high release that's difficult to contest, so it should just come down to becoming more accurate over the years.

He has another level of scoring upside to unlock, and since he's a forward who just turned 20 on Aug. 23 and made a notable jump from his freshman to sophomore year, it's worth betting on his upward-trending offensive development. 

          

Hesitant about

It's tough to fall too much in love with a wing who doesn't create. He converted three isolation buckets all season, averaged 1.6 assists and graded in the 18th percentile as a pick-and-roll passer. Vassell is a safe pick in the mold of Mikal Bridges, but it would seem ambitious to project anything more than a solid role player.

         

No. 1 Pick Odds: +10000

6. Deni Avdija (Israel, SF/PF, 2001)

Antonio Calanni/Associated Press

What I'm buying

Dominant in FIBA, the MVP of the Israeli League and useful in EuroLeague as a teenager, Deni Avdija is easy to buy as a pro. He's put on considerable muscle at 6'8", as well. He checks boxes with his transition attack, ball-screen driving and passing and set shot-making. And he's been successful playing different roles, one as a lead option and the other working as a complementary spot-up player (EuroLeague).

He should continue to excel as a fastbreak and off-ball scorer based on his physical tools, functional athletic ability and competent catch-and-shoot three-ball. He's skilled and unselfish enough to get teammates involved, another plus that should translate. 

           

Willing to bet on 

Scouts are split on Avdija's shooting, with skeptics quick to point out his free-throw numbers, which were below 60 percent in consecutive seasons. I'm willing to bet on them being somewhat fluky and more tied to mental hurdles he'll be able to overcome in time.

He made 48 threes in 33 Israeli BSL games this season, and when he's in rhythm, he looks like a shooter. He may never approach 40.0 percent, but I'm going with the eye test and his reputation as a worker over the percentages during his teenage years. 

I'm also betting on competitiveness and IQ helping Avdija overcome lateral-quickness concerns on defense. Even if he's not a lockdown defender, he can be useful, particularly off the ball and providing help.

          

Hesitant about

Versatility is a big selling point for Avdija, but no signature, elite skill raises questions about his upside. Can he create at an efficient enough level to be a top option? He dribbles with a high center of gravity, and there are concerns about how well he'll be able to separate one-on-one. He also doesn't have a strong pull-up game. 

If he struggles as creator, that puts more pressure on his shooting and defensive development.

        

No. 1 Overall Pick Odds: +1300

5. Obi Toppin (Dayton, PF/C, Sophomore)

Aaron Doster/Associated Press

What I'm buying

Obi Toppin averaged 20.0 points on 63.3 percent shooting with 6'9" size and explosive athleticism for a team that lost two games. His offense is easy to buy, particularly around the basket, where he led the nation in dunks and should continue racking up finishes just based on his tools and bounce to play above the rim. 

At the least, he'll add value by getting out in transition, diving, cutting and crashing the offensive glass. And with a strong frame and improved skill, he should pose as a tough cover when given space in the post. 

His passing also seems underrated and a skill that should generate more attention at the next level.

            

Willing to bet on

After he shot 39.0 percent from three on 82 attempts, I'm willing to bet on a three-point make per game from Toppin. He should be used to pick-and-pop and stretch the floor, and he shows enough agility to attack closeouts in straight lines and finish on the move. 

Most criticism around Toppin is directed at his defense, but there is a chance the concerns are overblown. In a small-ball 5 role, he possesses the athleticism to protect the rim and make plays (contests, blocks) on the block. And while he won't be easy to trust against certain hybrid 4s, the right support system could help mask his lateral limitations.

         

Hesitant about

Toppin still leaned more on power and athleticism than skill inside the arc. And the track record of 22-year-olds going in the lottery is worrisome. Before Cam Johnson, the previous lottery picks at least 22 were Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Taurean Prince, Denzel Valentine, Frank Kaminsky, Doug McDermott, Kelly Olynyk, Jimmer Fredette, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Hasheem Thabeet, Tyler Hansbrough and Brandon Rush.

I'm hesitant about his ability to face up, use the dribble and make plays, and he doesn't have that rise-and-fire jump shot around the key that helped elevate an athlete like Amar'e Stoudemire to stardom. 

If it turns out he's a revolving door on defense, will he be worth the free-agency price his flashy scoring stats may drive up? Is it worth paying big bucks to build around a poor defensive big?

         

No. 1 Overall Pick Odds: +1300

4. Killian Hayes (Ratiopharm Ulm, PG, 2001)

What I'm buying

Playing the whole season at 18 years old, Killian Hayes finished third in EuroCup in assists with 6'5" size, vision and passing skill the eye test says will translate. I'm buying his playmaking for a ball-screen-heavy offense.

He also demonstrated impressive touch and body control on his finishes and floaters off drives. I'm looking past questions about his athletic ability. A lack of explosion won't hold him back, just as it hasn't limited Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

          

Willing to bet on

Hayes rose into the top five on my board mostly due to the improvements he made to his self-creation and shot-making. I'm willing to bet on steady development that will allow the flashes of pull-up and step-back jumpers to become more routine. 

Hayes went from 14 threes in 34 games last year to 30 threes in 33 games this season. And considering he shot 87.6 percent from the free-throw line in 2019-20, he clearly has touch on his shot. 

          

Hesitant about

There were instances of Hayes getting ripped before crossing half court, he had lapses that resulted in bad turnovers or passes, and he's still at 29.4 percent from three on limited volume. While he may be the most well-rounded guard in the draft, his execution isn't the sharpest in any one area. 

        

No. 1 Pick Odds: +2500

3. Onyeka Okongwu (USC, C, Freshman)

Kyusung Gong/Associated Press

What I'm buying

At 6'9", 245 pounds, Onyeka Okongwu's tools and athleticism should continue translating to easy baskets around the rim out of the dunker spot, off rolls and by crashing the offensive glass. But I'm also buying his paint touch.

Aside from high-percentage finishes, Okongwu has soft hands to make finesse shots from tough angles. He can create those shots with impressive footwork and coordination. He ranked in the 94th percentile as a post-up player, and his effectiveness in college should carry over based on his advanced moves for separating, ability to use both hands and length to extend away from defenders.

His 2.7 blocks per game are also easy to buy. Okongwu has an aggressive approach defending the rim, as well as the tools and athletic ability to make plays. Opponents shot 31.3 percent against him at the rim. And though he projects as a 5, he'll be able to switch effectively without being a liability guarding in space.

            

Willing to bet on

Okongwu is good enough with the ball to emerge as an option coaches can feed and feature in the half court. Some just see a finisher, but I picture a quality scoring threat. I'm also willing to bet on him developing into a center who can square up and shoot near the elbows and short corners like Deandre Ayton. 

           

Hesitant about

It's tough to imagine Okongwu evolving into a three-point shooter or face-up scorer who can handle the ball and make plays like Pascal Siakam. If he's only a back-to-the-basket option, how much does that lower his offensive ceiling? 

          

No. 1 Pick Odds: +4000

2. Anthony Edwards (Georgia, SG, Freshman)

John Amis/Associated Press

What I'm buying

Between Anthony Edwards' 6'5", 225-pound size, skill level for creating and shooting, 19.1 points per game and age (19), I'm buying his scoring carrying over. His 72 threes in 32 games point to a high shot-making floor. He's already developed advanced moves for separating into jumpers, and he clearly has the body and explosiveness to pick up easy baskets off drives and in transition. 

Edwards should have the talent, skill and confidence to emerge as a Donovan Mitchell- or Victor Oladipo-like scorer.

            

Willing to bet on

Edwards only shot 28.1 percent on half-court jump shots and 29.4 percent from behind the arc. I'm willing to bet on both numbers improving as he ages into his 20s. 

        

Hesitant about

Behind Edwards' 15.8 shots per game, Georgia finished No. 13 out of 14 SEC teams. And its roster wasn't terrible. Can an offense efficiently run through his tough shot selection? 

Wherever he goes, he won't be a top option right away. Edwards' mentality isn't built for an off-ball role right now as he drifts when he isn't involved and struggles to make the right reads and hit shots out of spot-ups. 

         

No. 1 Overall Pick Odds: -200

1. LaMelo Ball (Illawarra Hawks, PG, 2001)

Rick Rycroft/Associated Press

What I'm buying

LaMelo Ball's special passing instincts and skill for a 6'7" ball-handler will carry over. I'm buying him as a top setup man capable of racking up 10 assists whenever he wants. His feel and creativity are too good out of pick-and-rolls, and he has the height and IQ to continue executing as a facilitator against NBA defenses.

His creativity, dexterity and coordination should also translate to impressive finishing despite the perception that a lack of strength will hold him back. 

           

Willing to bet on

His efficiency should improve in a lineup with more weapons than he had in Australia. And despite questions about his ability to take contact and shoot, I'm willing to bet on his body continuing to fill out and his confidence to elevate his shot-making.

Physically, Ball looks significantly different every season. His jumper needs work, but he still hit 24 threes in 13 total games (counting NBL Blitz). Once he finds a rhythm, he's clearly capable of locking in and converting from NBA distance. Even Luka Doncic shot just 31.0 percent from three in his last year with Real Madrid.

I'll take Ball's shot-making capability even if it comes with inconsistency.  

           

Hesitant about

While Ball excels at creating quality shots for teammates, I'm hesitant about his ability to get himself good looks. Unless he's able to get right to the bucket, his favorite method of shot creation is pulling up from 25 feet.

His defensive effort is another concern, although NBA coaches will hold him more accountable than coaches in high school, Lithuania and Australia. 

          

No. 1 Overall Pick Odds: +350 

Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports, Sports Reference and Real GMNo. 1 Pick odds courtesy of FanDuel.

   

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