Dark-Horse Destinations for NBA's Most Interesting 2020 Free Agents

This year's NBA free-agent class isn't interesting for the usual reasons. But it is still interesting.

Superstars potentially changing teams drives much of the league's offseason appeal. Trade activity may not disappoint here, but the free-agency pool isn't teeming with marquee flight risks.

Nor is it flush with cap space. Something like four to six teams will be operating with more than the non-taxpayer's mid-level exception, depending on how things shake out. That could mean the MLE will go further than normal, but with the cap expected to shrink from the initial $115 million forecast, it should also be worth less annually than originally expected ($9.8 million).

Free agents guaranteed to land more than the full MLE are now inherently uninteresting when viewed against tapered projections. The field of suitors with the financial bandwidth to afford them is nanoscopic and, therefore, predictable. Most will be better off staying put and capitalizing on Bird rights.

Sussing out the most intriguing free agents is less an exercise in big-game hunting and more about identifying open-ended cases—notable free agents who could be worth more than the mini or non-taxpayer MLE, but not necessarily, and who will by extension have more options at their disposal because the money will be equal in so many different places.

Dark-horse destinations, meanwhile, will consist of sensible but less discussed landing spots for each player.

Mike Conley (early termination option), Anthony Davis (player option), DeMar DeRozan (player option), Andre Drummond (player option), Gordon Hayward (player option) and Brandon Ingram (restricted) are the only big-big names capable of hitting the market, and none of them profile as goners.

Davis didn't force his way to the Los Angeles Lakers just to leave them, and the New Orleans Pelicans wouldn't have kept Ingram beyond the trade deadline if they weren't prepared to max him. Conley, DeRozan and Hayward have zero business opting out of their contracts. It'll take at least two seasons to recoup the money they're slated to take home.

A cap-poor market also eliminates a bunch of players by default—namely Davis Bertans, Danilo Gallinari, Montrezl Harrell, Marcus Morris, Fred VanVleet and Christian Wood. Higher price tags render their range of outcomes too shallow for us to pretend they'll have dark-horse suitors. (Sign-and-trade scenarios could overturn this sentiment.)

Restricted free agents are in the same boat. It takes cap space to outbid incumbents, and few teams have the equity to enter a bidding war. This is not the space to talk about Malik Beasley, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Chris Boucher, Kris Dunn, De'Anthony Melton (Early Bird), Jakob Poeltl and Dario Saric, most of whom won't be going anywhere.

Ditto for many player options among non-stars. Tim Hardaway Jr., Rodney Hood, Kelly Olynyk, Otto Porter Jr., Tony Snell et al. are more likely to run out the final year of their contracts. They along with everyone else who falls under this umbrella won't be making cameos here. Player options need to be a coin-toss situation (and, obviously, belong to a player who engenders intense interest) to make the cut.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope exists in his own bubble. He's played well enough to possibly decline his player option, but he shares an agent with LeBron James, and the Lakers will have full Bird rights. His entry into free agency would, from where I'm standing, be a formality.

I also, with all due respect, can't bring myself to talk about Carmelo Anthony. He's scored efficiently enough that he'll be on a roster next season—and staying with the Portland Trail Blazers should be the priority—but his price point isn't much of a mystery. It'll be a shocker if he gets more (or even up to) the mini MLE.

Similar restraint is showed with select big men, most notably Aron Baynes, Dwight Howard, Tristan Thompson and Hassan Whiteside. They're all starting-level players at the 5 spot, but the center position is oversaturated, and it's difficult to envision any of them bagging full-MLE money in this cap climate.

And finally, Derrick Jones Jr. was the toughest exclusion. The Miami Heat's 2021 cap sheet leaves his future firmly in the lurch, but this doesn't seem like the summer that teams will crack open their piggy banks for non-shooting wings.

Consider this the Toronto Raptors' "Fred VanVleet just signed for near-max money with the New York Knicks" contingency.

The Raptors will be toeing a fine line this offseason. VanVleet, Chris Boucher (restricted), Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka are all free agents. They cannot re-sign all of them to multiyear deals if they're trying to preserve cap space for 2021, when a certain about-to-be-a-two-time-MVP could be available.

Giannis Antetokounmpo can simplify Toronto's offseason by immediately signing a supermax extension with the Milwaukee Bucks. Even then, though, team president Masai Ujiri isn't one to pay a non-star wild sums of money. VanVleet is a legitimate flight risk no matter how the Raptors offseason plays out.

Goran Dragic wouldn't entirely replace him. He's a non-factor on defense, and planning around him will only get harder as he inches closer to age 35. But Toronto has the stopping power elsewhere to play him without getting torched. OG Anunoby and Kyle Lowry are All-Defense candidates at their respective positions, and Norman Powell is closer to above-average than not.

Getting over VanVleet won't be as hard on offense. Dragic is averaging 16.1 points and 5.1 assists while banging in 37.7 percent of his threes. Injuries have slowed him in recent years, but he's both shifty and crafty in the lane and hits enough of his catch-and-shoot treys (36.3 percent) to play alongside Lowry if the Raptors are feeling frisky.

Avery Bradley's $5 million player option is even more fascinating after he decided not to join the Los Angeles Lakers in Disney World. He spent the season tackling tough on-ball assignments and drilled 36.4 percent of his threes, but has he built up enough goodwill to guarantee a windfall larger than roughly mini-MLE money?

The Lakers better hope not. They only have his non-Bird rights. If he costs more than $5.7 million to retain, they'll have to tap into their own MLE to keep him.

Players still viewed as three-and-D options will always have a market, but Bradley's efficiency has waxed and waned over the years, and he's not big enough (6'2") to pester starrier wings. He's best served on a team that has a premier table-setter, and that can allow him to focus on a singular defensive cover.

Atlanta checks both boxes. Trae Young's off-the-dribble escapism would ensure Bradley gets his fair share of wide-open three-point looks, and the Hawks still need defensive go-getters in the backcourt. Covering up for Young is a 35-plus-minutes-per-game job. Cam Reddish cannot do it on his own.

Bradley's fit in Atlanta is even more interesting if he's willing to accept a short-term windfall. The Hawks will have access to max money, and Young wants to make the playoffs now. Rather than burn long-term capital in a depressed free-agent market, they could try selling a fringe-MLE candidate on a lucrative one- or two-year pact.

Reputation has exceeded reality for Jae Crowder. His three-and-D billing no longer makes sense. He's shooting 32.5 percent from deep since his final season with the Boston Celtics and just 33.6 percent for his career. His positional flexibility at the defensive end, while genuine, doesn't guarantee anything.

Using him at the 4 unlocks lineup optionality if he's beside a premier backline defender or sharing the court with a score of other pesky wings. It is not a context-proof cheat code. The Miami Heat have hemorrhaged points when he plays power forward with Bam Adebayo at the 5.

This isn't to discredit Crowder's utility. He's canning 39.3 percent of his triples since joining the Heat, irrationally confident dribbling into jumpers and equipped to defend bigger wings. He just isn't a shoo-in to get a contract worth the full MLE, let alone more than it.

Teams without cap space should be happy to hear as much, in no small part because his future with Miami is far from settled. The Heat have 2021 free-agency aspirations and jeopardize pushes for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Oladipo and other stars if they hand out any long-term deals. Crowder seems bound to want one of those after turning 30 and playing the past half-decade on a below-market contract.

Plenty of squads will register interest if Miami doesn't use its Bird rights to keep him. (Offering him a one-year pact with an inflated salary is an option.) Teams love the idea of wings who can defend and shoot, even if that assessment is rooted more in theory than practice.

Whether the Denver Nuggets can come calling rests squarely on their incumbent free agents. Torrey Craig (restricted), Jerami Grant (player option), Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee are all scheduled to hit the open market. Re-signing both Grant and Millsap specifically could vault them close enough to the tax that they're unable or unwilling to use the full MLE.

Still, if the Nuggets can swing it, Crowder beefs up a rotation that's light on players who tackle the very defensive assignments he handles. He's even more valuable in the event Grant leaves. Affording both isn't impossible—it'd depend on Millsap's cost or departure—but it's offensively fragile unless Denver buys into Crowder's shot-making in Miami.

Evan Fournier's player option may be the league's hardest to pin down.

Only seven other players are clearing 18 points and three assists per game while matching his true shooting percentage (59.9): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, Anthony Davis, James Harden, Nikola Jokic, Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton. In many other years, this would be enough to net Fournier an average annual salary over the long haul that meets or at least compares to his $17.2 million option.

This year? Who knows.

Fournier needs to solicit overtures from one of the few teams with cap space if he's going to opt out and leave the Orlando Magic. That's a tough sell. Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Miami and New York are the only squads guaranteed to have wiggle room, and going on 28, he wouldn't be the smartest investment for rebuilding squads.

That ostensibly rules out Charlotte and New York—though, they're always wild cards. Atlanta needs more of a playmaker or defense-first wing next to Young. Miami could use another scorer with a floor game, particularly if Goran Dragic leaves, but signing Fournier would substantially knife into their 2021 cap space.

Hello, Detroit.

Nobody should feel comfortable with this endorsement. It is predicated on the Pistons doing what they, in all likelihood, shouldn't do: attempting to stave off a rebuild. But if they look at their roster and see a window to compete with a healthier Blake Griffin, Luke Kennard and Derrick Rose, they have the cap-sheet plasticity to re-sign Christian Wood and make a competitive—potentially market-setting—offer for Fournier.

Investing in another big shouldn't technically be in the Mavericks' plans. Kristaps Porzingis is wrapping up the first year of his max contract, and Maxi Kleber, Boban Marjanovic and Dwight Powell will all be on the books next season.

But the latter suffered a ruptured right Achilles tendon at the end of January. Dallas cannot be certain he'll play at all next season, and even if he does, he's going to miss a large chunk of the schedule.

Slotting Porzingis at the 5 is just fine. The Mavs have a 121.3 offensive rating and are outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per 100 possessions when he's the only big on the floor. They can lean on Kleber-Porzingis arrangements—which have gotten progressively better—if they want to roll out a more traditional frontcourt.

At the same time, Porzingis isn't a shot-creator. Dallas feeds him down low every now and then, but he's not an inside tactician. He's shooting 35.9 percent and averaging a ghastly 0.79 points per post-up possession (21st percentile).

The Mavs could use someone who, in addition to popping out for threes, can work down low as both a scorer and creator—particularly during crunch time. Dallas is 14-21 and owns the league's second-worst offense in games where neither team is ahead or behind by more than five points entering the final five minutes. Gasol would give them more options down the stretch, which in turn would make life easier on Luka Doncic.

This isn't to say the Mavs should go all-in for another big. They'll have the non-taxpayer's MLE and bi-annual exception if Tim Hardaway Jr. picks up his player option. Gasol probably isn't taking the BAE unless he's landing with a bonafide powerhouse, but at age 35, they might be able to snag him for a portion of the MLE should he leave Toronto.

Jerami Grant is apparently leaning toward declining his $9.3 million player option, a decision that suggests he can get more than the MLE, or that he's fine with signing a long-term deal at a near-identical annual salary.

The Denver Nuggets will be in a bizarre position if he explores free agency. They can pay him more than anyone, but his fit hasn't proved seamless. He's nailing 40 percent of his treys and is one of the few players who can capably defend four to five positions, and yet, his on-off numbers aren't pretty. Denver is 8.6 points per 100 possessions worse on defense with him in the game and losing the minutes he plays with Nikola Jokic.

Wonky splits aren't end-all barometers. Grant hasn't played poorly. The Nuggets can justify paying eight figures per year to keep him. But the Heat loom as an appealing destination if they don't. They won't be in the business of shelling out long-term money unless the outlook for 2021 free agency changes, but at 26, he might consider playing for a one-year balloon payment—a bloated salary they can offer even if Jae Crowder sticks around.

Whether Grant qualifies as the ideal acquisition is a separate matter. The Heat would be taking a risk. They'll need more functional shooting if Jimmy Butler doesn't rediscover his jump shot—especially if bringing back Dragic isn't in the cards.

Let's agree to couch that concern. Miami always finds a way to generate juuust enough spacing and shooting. Duncan Robinson still exists, and Tyler Herro could be ready for more ball-handling responsibility next year.

Grant is worth the dice roll for his defensive malleability alone. Having him on the court with Jokic and a handful of suboptimal perimeter stoppers is one thing. Putting him next to Butler and Bam Adebayo is another.

If we're being totally honest, the Brooklyn Nets should absolutely, under no circumstances, let Joe Harris walk.

He is the ideal player for a team with so many stud ball-handlers. More than half of his looks come without taking a dribble, and he's posting a 66.0 effective field-goal percentage on these attempts. Doug McDermott and Duncan Robinson are the only other non-bigs to match or exceed that mark after taking at least 300 such shots.

Harris endears himself further with hints of a floor game. He's comfortable attacking closeouts, able to fling passes on the move and is shooting a rock-solid 48.9 percent on drives. And while he's not a certified stopper, he competes on defense and is strong enough to sponge up reps at the 3.

The Nets could still feasibly go in another direction. They should be well into the tax next year before even factoring in his contract, and though that renders him more of a commodity when they can't replace him, the rotation is begging for larger wings who are more lockdown than tryhard.

Don't rule out Harris getting more than the non-taxpayer MLE if he leaves. He works anywhere. But going on 29, he's the snuggest fit on win-now teams, pretty much all of which won't have actual cap space.

Putting Harris on the Oklahoma City Thunder would be a dream. The Thunder sorely need wings who can shoot and will have no trouble playing him at the 3 when they've got Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plus a penchant for running out three-guard lineups. For his part, Harris should be guaranteed a starting spot and plenty of playing time.

Oklahoma City's uncertain outlook is the wrench in this suggestion. Moving Paul George and Russell Westbrook was supposed to signal the start of a rebuild. The Thunder outperformed expectations this season just by staying together, but it isn't yet clear whether they'll run it back or look to tear it down.

Signing Harris may be out of reach even if they opt for the former. Keeping the core intact has to include re-upping Danilo Gallinari. They won't have a ton of room under the tax if he commands another $20 to $22 million salary—and they definitely aren't cannonballing into the tax for a squad that wouldn't be a surefire contender.

Everything changes if Gallinari, who turns 32 in August, prioritizes a longer-team deal. Getting him for between $15 and $17 million annually would leave them with the runway to use the MLE on Harris and stay under the tax.

Justin Holiday has quietly cobbled together one helluva season.

Overextension gave way to disappointment last year. He started off hot while handling the ball a ton for the Chicago Bulls, but he fell back down to earth before getting traded to the Memphis Grizzlies.

Playing for the Indiana Pacers has freed him to operate inside more of his wheelhouse. More than half of his looks are coming as spot-up opportunities, on which he's posting a scintillating 60.6 effective field-goal percentage, and he's finishing nearly one-quarter of his possessions in transition, where he's posting a ridiculous 68.2 effective field-goal percentage.

Indiana has also simplified his ball-handling workload. He's no longer tasked with initiation. He's a play-finisher. And it looks good on him. He's shooting 51.1 percent on pull-up triples (24-of-47).

Figuring out his market value is a chore. The full MLE feels too ambitious. The mini MLE doesn't feel like quite enough. (He's defended power forwards this year!)

Whatever his price tag, it shouldn't take much to poach him from the Pacers. They can only offer him a starting salary of $5.7 million before diving into their own MLE, and paying him even that much may not sit right when Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner and TJ Warren are running them over $100 million.

The Portland Trail Blazers profile as an idyllic fit if Holiday does leave Indiana. They're forever in search of wings, and his capacity to guard up to certain 4s is much-needed variability.

Meeting his market value shouldn't be a problem. The Blazers are in line for the full MLE even if they guarantee Trevor Ariza's salary and Rodney Hood picks up his player option. Unless the market for him ends up being super frothy, Holiday might even leave them with some leftover MLE change to use on a reserve big, assuming Hassan Whiteside isn't retained.

Regardless, acquiring him would be low-key huge. A wing rotation that includes Ariza, Holiday, Hood (if he returns from his Achilles injury) and Gary Trent Jr. has some actual depth to it.

Finding alternative landing spots for Serge Ibaka is tough.

He's averaging 16.0 points while downing 39.8 percent of his threes and 56.2 percent of his twos, but he's not nearly skilled enough on defense anymore to meaningfully impact the game without scoring. He needs to land on a team with shots to spare if he leaves Toronto.

Are the Los Angeles Clippers that team? Possibly.

Their interest in him would be contingent upon Montrezl Harrell leaving, which isn't especially likely. Among the scant few teams with the cap space to offer him a lucrative contract, only the Charlotte Hornets feel like a potential fit.

Then again, if Ibaka joins the Clippers, he's coming for the taxpayer's mid-level. They might be fine burning that on another big even while paying Harrell and Ivica Zubac. Ibaka provides more offensive range than both without forcing the defense to downsize, and opponents are shooting 51.4 percent against him at the rim, one of the stingiest marks among 67 players challenging at least four point-blank looks per game.

Paul Millsap was born in Monroe, Louisiana. He went to high school in Grambling, Louisiana. And he attended college at Louisiana Tech.

Bring him home.

Rest assured, nostalgia isn't the only driving force behind this endorsement. The Pelicans have holes up front. Jaxson Hayes and Zion Williamson aren't anywhere near ready to anchor defenses in the middle, and Derrick Favors is hitting free agency. Re-signing him would cater to more traditional size, but Millsap is the better shooter and has a superior floor game, making him the cleaner fit next to Williamson.

Of note: New Orleans is annihilating opponents when Favors and Williamson share the floor. Subbing out Favors (6'9") for the 6'7" Millsap would forfeit size. A Millsap-Williamson frontcourt may not be defensively tenable for protracted stretches.

To which I say: Why choose?

Josh Hart has seen backup 4 reps this season. The Pelicans have the bandwidth to mix and match. They can start Millsap and Williamson and then stagger their minutes as the game goes on; roll out Favors next to Williamson and bring Millsap off the bench; or rework their opening five based on who they're facing.

Hayes potentially draws the short straw in this scenario. He'd have no clear path to the starting five or a larger role with both Favors and Millsap on the docket. That's...not the end of the world. Next year is his age-20 season. Being around Favors and Millsap should only help him long term.

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference or Cleaning the Glass. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders, Early Bird Rights and Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Adam Fromal.