The 2020 NFL draft served as a reminder that the event is among the hardest to predict in sports.
After months of mock drafts, scouting reports and "anonymous sources" speaking their mind on the new crop of rookies, we finally get to see just how wrong we were about the whole thing.
Every year the process repeats itself as a new group of steals, reaches and surprises manifest.
While these terms are popular for those who break down different developments over the three-day event, they can have varying definitions. Here are ours:
- Steal: A player who was expected to go earlier than where he was selected and provides great value to his team.
- Reach: A player who was not expected to go as early as he did. Oftentimes, this is exacerbated by a questionable fit.
- Surprise: An unexpected development. Unlike the steal and reach, there isn't necessarily a positive or negative connotation here.
The draft is the lifeblood of all 32 teams. Sure, trades and free agency are necessary to round out rosters and push a team over the top, but great team-building starts with nailing the draft.
While you can't be sure about who "won" the event until we see how these players perform through their rookie contracts, we can make judgments about where the players were picked against expectations.
With that in mind, here are the draft's biggest steals, reaches and surprises.
Steal: Dallas Cowboys Take CeeDee Lamb at No. 17
When you walk into the draft with the 17th pick, you likely won't get the sixth-rated player on your big board without trading up. Yet, that's exactly what happened when the Dallas Cowboys took CeeDee Lamb.
Owner Jerry Jones acknowledged the Cowboys were on the receiving end of multiple calls to trade back but couldn't turn down the opportunity to add the explosive Oklahoma receiver.
"Lamb prevailed," Jones said, per Todd Archer of ESPN. "We just didn't want to miss him. Those trades ultimately are supposed to add another player to be valuable, but we couldn't trump him. He was just there. He's a football player. He's a playmaker. He just earned it."
Henry Ruggs III has the speed. Jerry Jeudy has the polish. Lamb has a little bit of everything and could easily wind up as WR1 in a class that has been lauded for its depth and quality.
Lamb was a much more productive player than Ruggs. He had 173 catches, 3,292 yards and 32 touchdowns in three seasons in Norman and is a little more versatile than Jeudy.
Lamb has the physical tools to be a key part of the Cowboys offense early on and the long-term potential to become Dak Prescott's No. 1 target even with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on the roster.
Reach: Las Vegas Raiders Take Damon Arnette at No. 19
Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden showed last season they will draft to the beat of their own drum.
In 2019, no one expected them to take Clemson edge-defender Clelin Ferrell with the fourth pick, yet they did it without hesitation and followed it up with a first-round running back (always controversial now) in Josh Jacobs and safety Johnathan Abram with their third first-round pick.
Once again armed with multiple firsts this year, Mayock and Gruden bucked the conventional wisdom and took cornerback Damon Arnette at No. 19.
It isn't that he can't be a successful NFL corner. He played through a wrist injury most of his final season at Ohio State and managed to keep a lot of good receivers in check.
The pick is a reach because of where he was ranked by most outlets. Here's a sample of his rankings among corners before the draft.
- Pro Football Focus: 14th
- Matt Miller: 13th
- Dane Brugler of The Athletic: 9th
He was the fourth corner off the board.
It's not uncommon for there to be a gap between where teams and media have a player ranked. Sometimes the media is right; sometimes the team is. But the gulf between where Arnette was viewed in the predraft process and where he went is too big to ignore.
It feels like the Raiders could have gotten better value with the 19th pick or traded back if they really wanted the Ohio State product.
Surprise: Packers Trade Up for Jordan Love at No. 26
Going 13-3 and missing out on the Super Bowl by one game, the Green Bay Packers did everything they could in the draft to gear up Aaron Rodgers for one more run at a championship.
Oh, wait. No. That's pretty much the opposite of what they did.
The Packers made the first stunning move of Day 1 when they traded up to take Jordan Love of Utah State at No. 26. He isn't a perfect prospect, but there are things to like about him. He can do things you don't see a lot of college quarterbacks doing in terms of throwing on the run, improvising and delivering the ball with velocity. It's understandable that a team would take a shot on him late in the first round.
It's the fact that the Packers were the team to do it that is confounding.
Rodgers is 36, but he isn't going away anytime soon. The Packers can't cut or trade the quarterback without a dead-cap hit of at least $17.2 million until 2022, per Spotrac. It's even more expensive over the next two seasons.
A record 13 wide receivers were taken in the first two rounds of the draft, but the Packers, who desperately need someone to line up across from Davante Adams, didn't grab one. At all.
That makes the Love pick even more surprising and, frankly, confusing.
Reach: Kansas City Chiefs Take Clyde Edwards-Helaire at No. 32
This one comes with a caveat. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is set to put up big numbers in Kansas City. It's easy to get excited when a running back with his skill set joins an explosive offense. He had 55 receptions for 453 yards last season. In the Chiefs attack, he will be a dual threat.
This is a reach simply because the pick would have been better spent elsewhere.
With or without Edwards-Helaire, the Chiefs will possess one of the best offenses in football next season. They just won a Super Bowl with a rotation of running backs that were either undrafted, low picks or old (LeSean McCoy, 31).
For what it's worth, their opponent, San Francisco, got to the game with a stable of low-cost backs.
What Mahomes won't help is the defensive backfield. The Chiefs still need a cornerback, especially in the slot after the departure of Kendall Fuller. Bashaud Breeland came back—but on a one-year deal.
The Chiefs addressed the defense with linebacker Willie Gay Jr. in the second round. He should compete for a starting position right away, but with the leads the Chiefs should build with their explosive offense, this seems like a wasted opportunity to improve the defense.
Surprise: Philadelphia Eagles Take Jalen Hurts at No. 53
At 8:36 p.m. ET Friday, ESPN's Adam Schefter warned: "Here comes the eye-opening pick of Round 2."
It didn't disappoint.
Despite the presence of Carson Wentz and his four-year, $128 million contract, the Eagles made Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts the fifth quarterback off the board and the first selected in the second round.
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman was quick to remind everyone the team is still behind Wentz.
"We have shown how we feel about Carson by our actions, by the amount of picks we put into him, and we showed it by the contract extension," he said, per Tim McManus of ESPN. "We believe this is the guy to lead us to our next Super Bowl championship. But for better or worse, we are QB developers."
There could be more to the pick than just developing Hurts as the team's backup quarterback, though. Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports has reported a source "familiar with the Eagles' draft evaluations" believes they want to make a two-quarterback package a staple of their offense.
That's a gutsy move. The New Orleans Saints' use of Taysom Hill as a do-it-all offensive weapon was fun to watch, but no team has tried to expand the idea beyond a seldom-used series of plays.
Whether it crashes and burns or creates the latest fad, no one can say the Eagles didn't make it interesting.
Steal: Baltimore Ravens Take J.K. Dobbins at No. 55
This slide could be titled, "Steal: The Ravens' First 2 Days of the Draft." As usual, Baltimore did a great job of letting the board unfold in front of them and taking the right guy at the right time.
While Edwards-Helaire didn't make sense for the Chiefs at No. 32 because they should have addressed defensive needs first, the Ravens took the opposite approach by selecting linebacker Patrick Queen at No. 28 and still wound up with a difference-maker in the running game at No. 55. Dobbins was tied for second in the nation for runs of more than 20 yards last season.
He opted not to run in the combine but put speed on film that might have improved his stock. He was right behind Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor in the Next Gen Stats production grades that predict NFL success.
With Lamar Jackson at quarterback, the Ravens will mercilessly run the ball until teams can figure out how to stop it. With Dobbins in the fray, that just became even more difficult for opposing defenses.
Steal: Tennessee Titans Take Kristian Fulton at No. 61
The Titans raised some eyebrows in the first round when they made Georgia offensive tackle Isaiah Wilson the 29th overall pick. He wasn't the most polished or NFL-ready tackle on the board, but he is a massive prospect both in upside and stature (6'6", 350 pounds).
They did the opposite when they took Kristian Fulton toward the end of the second round at No. 61. He's NFL-ready right now as long as he can stay on the field.
From a pure talent standpoint, it's hard to deny Fulton was one of the best corners in the draft. He was PFF's highest-graded cornerback in the SEC each of the last two seasons, and playing at LSU, he saw snaps against first-round picks Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs as well as Day 2 pick Tee Higgins. On those snaps, he gave up three catches for 39 yards and recorded three pass breakups on 11 targets.
There are some questions facing Fulton. He was suspended for the entire 2017 season for tampering with a drug test, and he missed three games in 2018 with an ankle injury. However, he came back in 2019 and played every game with the Tigers in their championship run at a high level.
The Titans very well could have ended up with the best player behind Jeff Okudah at a premium position, and it only cost them a late second-round pick.
Reach: Green Bay Packers Take AJ Dillon at No. 62
Based on the Packers draft, general manager Brian Gutekunst may have watched more of the Tennessee Titans during the playoffs than his own team.
That's one of the few explanations that could justify the team opting to take AJ Dillon in the second round. Maybe after watching Derrick Henry maul defenses en route to the AFC Championship Game, he decided that's the direction his team needed to go.
In reality, the Packers have one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league with a little left in the tank, four more years on his contract and few options to throw to outside of Davante Adams.
When the Packers passed on receivers to take Jordan Love with the 26th pick, it was confusing, but it could have been alleviated with a receiver for Rodgers to impact the offense now. Instead, they wound up with Dillon, who isn't likely to usurp Aaron Jones as the team's top back in 2020.
Dillon's most obvious projection as a physical Henry-esque runner is optimistic. Very few big backs with little receiving ability make it in the league anymore.
One AFC scout had this to say about Dillon before the draft, per Bob McGinn of The Athletic: "In the old days, this guy would be a fullback. In goal-line and short-yardage [situations], the guy would be excellent. He gets three yards each time. He takes people with him. He doesn't fit today's game."
Given his style, the Packers shouldn't feel great about his 845 carries in three seasons at Boston College either.
If Dillon went to the Titans in the fourth round as Derrick Henry insurance, it would make sense. Going to the Packers in the second round is baffling and one of the draft's worst reaches.
Steal: Arizona Cardinals Take Josh Jones at No. 72
Strong tackle play is hard to come by. There's a reason that Laremy Tunsil just received a three-year, $66 million contract extension that will reset the market at the position.
So any time you can find a guy with a legitimate chance to become a good pass-blocking tackle in the third round, it's a steal. So when the Arizona Cardinals added Josh Jones to their haul that included Isaiah Simmons in the first round and DeAndre Hopkins in the trade for their second-round pick, they became one of the draft's biggest winners.
According to PFF, Jones surrendered two total pressures on 325 pass-blocking snaps this season. He played in the AAC, so that dampers the excitement a bit, but at the very least, he's a 6'5", 319-pound behemoth with the athleticism to become a starting offensive tackle.
There was less than a 1 percent chance Jones would be available when the Cardinals went on the clock at No. 72, according to ESPN's draft predictor. Had Jones gone in the first round, it wouldn't have been called a reach given the value of the position and his potential. In the third round, it's a borderline crime.
Surprise: Jacob Eason Slides to Day 3
Regardless of whether you believe Jacob Eason will ever be a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL, he had all the makings of a passer ready to be overdrafted.
At 6'6" and 230 pounds, he has the archetypal size that talking heads love to rave about. He threw 62 miles per hour at the NFL combine, adding the kind of zip that many people love to say will make him an ideal quarterback in cold-weather cities.
They are also the kind of traits that usually guarantee a quarterback will be selected in the first two rounds of the draft. Even falling to the third would be a surprise.
Instead, everyone passed on the Washington quarterback multiple times before the Indianapolis Colts made him their fourth-round selection.
It's an ideal situation for him. He'll have a year or two to sit behind Philip Rivers and learn the ins and outs of the pro game before needing to step into the starter's role.
But the fact that Eason didn't go until the final day of the draft signals a slight change in the overall philosophy about drafting quarterbacks. Simply having size and a huge arm doesn't guarantee you'll be picked early anymore.
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