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Predicting 2021 NBA All-Stars Means Making Room for Zion, Ja

Greg Swartz

Predicting NBA All-Stars takes into account a number of factors.

Individual production is a must, either putting up an eye-popping number of points, grabbing a gaudy number of rebounds or ranking near the top of the NBA in assists.

Team success is important. Just ask Bradley Beal, who failed to make the 2020 game despite now ranking second in the league in scoring at 30.5 points per game.

Popularity also matters as fans account for 50 percent of the vote when choosing All-Star starters; 25 percent comes from the players themselves, and select media members make up the other 25 percent. Coaches then select the reserves.

Second-year stars Luka Doncic and Trae Young made the jump from rookies left off the teams to All-Star starters as sophomores in 2020. Could we see a similar rise from Zion Williamson and Ja Morant?

Here's what the 2021 All-Star teams should look like, with five of the 10 starters from this season replaced.


                

Javair Gillett, Director of Athletic Performance for the Houston Rockets, joins The Full 48 with Howard Beck to discuss how the Houston Rockets as an organization working with players on training and nutrition during the NBA shutdown, his thoughts on what it will take to get players in game-shape once the season resumes, and some of the tips he's providing to players.

East Reserves

Chris Szagola/Associated Press

Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards

There's a real argument that Beal should have made the 2020 game over Kyle Lowry, Khris Middleton, Bam Adebayo or Domantas Sabonis, but coaches picked players from winning teams (sometimes two of them) over Beal's outstanding stat line.

He is averaging 30.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.2 steals per game and splitting at .455/.353/.842 this season. Beal's numbers should dip a bit with the return of John Wall, but a better overall Wizards team will help make this his third All-Star appearance.

          

Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

Being the No. 1 option on a top-four team in a conference is almost a guaranteed All-Star selection, and the Miami Heat should once again be near the top as Butler serves as the alpha.

Some stars' returns from injury may keep Bam Adebayo from a second straight appearance, but Butler will once again represent Miami.

           

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Embiid has been named a starter in all three of his career All-Star Games, a streak that ends in 2021.

He's arguably the best all-around center in the NBA, and his combination of scoring, rebounding, passing and rim protection will still earn him a spot from the coaches.

         

Victor Oladipo, Indiana Pacers

When equipped with two healthy legs, Oladipo has been an All-Star in Indiana.

While Domantas Sabonis represented the Pacers this season as Oladipo recovered from a ruptured quad tendon, expect the 2013 No. 2 overall pick to return to his All-Star form by next season.

         

Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors

A starter this year, Siakam finds himself moved to the reserves but should still be considered an All-Star lock.

The Raptors may lose Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in free agency, meaning Siakam's numbers should only increase from the 23.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.0 steals he's posting now.

         

Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

Simmons is a media favorite, finishing third among East backcourt players despite being ranked fourth by the players and eighth by fans this year.

If he adds a reliable three-point shot, expect the fan vote to skyrocket enough to put him close to starter status.

         

Fred VanVleet, Detroit Pistons

A free-agency and All-Star prediction here, as VanVleet makes his first appearance as a member of the Pistons under former head coach Dwane Casey.

VanVleet is averaging 17.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.9 steals and shooting 38.8 percent from three for the Raptors this season despite posting a usage rate (22.0 percent) that is tied for just 109th.

As the starting point guard on a Pistons team with few other offensive options, VanVleet will see his numbers soar.

East Starter (Backcourt): Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets

Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Despite playing just 20 games this season, Irving received the second-most fan votes of any Eastern Conference guard, showing how popular he remains among fans worldwide.

While he didn't get the media or player vote (sixth place for both), a strong beginning to the 2020-21 season would seemingly put him in line to be an All-Star starter given he'll likely get another strong push from the fans.

Statistically, Irving was having arguably his best overall season. His 27.4 points are a career high and would rank eighth in the NBA. He also averaged 5.2 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 1.4 steals and shot 39.4 percent from three.

As well, the Nets should be very good with the return of Kevin Durant, meaning they can justify getting multiple players to Indianapolis.

Irving's stats may dip a bit sharing the court with Durant, but he still put up 25.2 points on 19.7 shots per game and 5.8 assists alongside LeBron James and Kevin Love in 2016-17. Expect similar stats while letting Durant be the No. 1 option.

East Starter (Backcourt): Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks

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Making the jump from rookie sensation to All-Star starter in just a season is rarely done, yet Young won over both fans and media this season.

Young got more fan votes than any other Eastern Conference guard, which accounts for 50 percent of the total vote. Media placed him second and players third as his growing popularity and sky-high production overshadowed the Atlanta Hawks' standing at the bottom of the East.

Atlanta should be much better next season as the impressive young core has undergone some seasoning. Clint Capela gives Young a lob target, and John Collins averaged 24.8 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.2 blocks and split at an absurd .633/.455/.822 over his last 23 games.

With the Hawks likely to compete for a playoff spot, Young's production could mean even more to voters.

Just 21, he's tied with Giannis Antetokounmpo for third in the league in scoring (29.6 points) and is second to LeBron James in assists (9.3).

Even though he's a revolving door on defense, this deterrent matters far more for the Hawks' success than Young's All-Star chances. With another year of eye-popping numbers coming, look for him to keep his spot in the East starting five.

East Starter (Frontcourt): Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

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Even though Kemba Walker represented Boston in the starting lineup this season, he'll relinquish his duties to Jayson Tatum in 2021.

A first-time reserve this year, Tatum has taken the crown from Walker as team MVP behind his 23.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks and 39.8 percent shooting from three. Boston is 11.5 points per 100 possessions better with Tatum in the game compared to plus-0.2 for Walker.

Tatum's popularity should only continue to grow given his diverse and visually appealing offensive game. He's a scorer from all levels, possessing the footwork of a seasoned veteran at age 22.

While Walker and Jaylen Brown will make All-Star cases, Tatum will be the Celtics' lone representative, albeit as an East starter.

East Starter (Frontcourt): Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets

Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images

Remember him?

Before suffering an Achilles injury that's caused him to miss the entire season, the last time Kevin Durant wasn't named an All-Star was 2009.

A streak of 10 straight appearances may be over, but Durant should be ready to start another mini-run at age 31. Even if his game is never 100 percent again following the injury, 80 or 90 percent of peak Durant is good enough to garner All-Star-starter status.

In three seasons with the Golden State Warriors, Durant managed to score 25.8 points per game, a number that should only go up playing alongside one All-Star instead of three. Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert will help complement the offense, but this is still Durant's ball when he wants it.

We should also see a boost in popularity among fans now that Durant is off Golden State, as he logged more votes than players like Al Horford, Nikola Vucevic and Brook Lopez this season despite not playing a single game.

The media should have no problem voting in a healthy, productive Durant, and players should respect his ability to come back from a major injury.

Assuming Durant doesn't suffer any setbacks, he'll once again be named an All-Star starter.

East Captain: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images

For the third straight season, Antetokounmpo will be named captain of the East, a result of receiving the most fan votes.

This year, more than 5.9 million fan votes for Antetokounmpo easily pushed him past Joel Embiid, who had 3.1 million. He's the front-runner for MVP again this season, and his popularity only continues to rise.

From a production standpoint, his player efficiency rating of 31.6 is the seventh-highest mark in history. Antetokounmpo's 29.6 points, 13.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks are accumulated in just 30.9 minutes per game.

The Bucks' 53-12 record is the best in the NBA, and Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Brook Lopez, George Hill and Donte DeVincenzo are all under contract for next season. Milwaukee should once again be the No. 1 overall seed in the East, even with an improved Brooklyn Nets team lurking.

Before 2021 All-Star voting even takes place, Antetokounmpo should have captured his second straight MVP award and possibly an NBA championship.

West Reserves

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Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers

It's hard to imagine Davis leaves the Lakers in free agency given their incredible 49-14 record and that LeBron James is still playing at an MVP level.

A starter this year, Davis will find himself pushed to the All-Star reserves list in 2021. His scoring, rebounding and defensive tenacity will still make him a lock for coaches to select.

              

James Harden, Houston Rockets

Like Davis, Harden will lose his starting job but will certainly lock in an All-Star selection regardless.

On pace to average over 30 points per game and lead the NBA in scoring for the third straight year, Harden will make his ninth straight All-Star game. If the Rockets don't start the season with one of the best records in the league, however, teammate Russell Westbrook may not join him.

         

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have placed near the top of the Western Conference the past two seasons, and Jokic has served as the primary factor.

While teammate Jamal Murray should eventually make a few trips, Jokic will once again act as Denver's lone All-Star representative, displaying his impressive scoring, rebounding and elite passing skills.

        

Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

Lillard just keeps getting better, averaging a career-high 28.9 points and 7.8 assists while hitting 39.4 percent of his three-pointers.

His selection is once again safe, given Lillard will only be turning 30 this summer and should have another three to four years of All-Star play remaining.

        

Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz

Making his first All-Star appearance this season, the 23-year-old Jazz star should just be getting started.

He has averaged a career-high 24.2 points to go along with 4.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.0 steals and a true shooting mark of 56.0 percent. Mitchell will be the only Jazz representative in 2020, with returning faces and budding stars set to push Rudy Gobert out of the game.

          

Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies

Morant will make the second-year leap into his first All-Star game, with teammate Jaren Jackson Jr. likely to join in the next few years.

What will separate Morant from other young guards like De'Aaron Fox, D'Angelo Russell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray is his ability to carry a team to the playoffs, especially in the Western Conference.

Averaging 17.6 points, 3.5 rebounds and 6.9 assists and shooting 49.1 percent overall as a rookie, expect Morant to make an All-Star jump in year two.

          

Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

If he'd played enough games, Towns would have certainly made his third straight All-Star appearance.

Arguably the best offensive big man in the game, Towns is the only player averaging at least 25 points and 10 rebounds while shooting 40 percent or better from three this season. Teammate D'Angelo Russell will also put up big numbers, but the Wolves likely won't have a good enough record to get two players to the game.

West Starter (Backcourt): Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The return of Curry means Harden gets moved to the bench, even if the Houston Rockets star is outperforming him statistically.

Always near the top in fan voting, Curry was sixth among West guards this season ahead of players like Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker and Chris Paul despite playing just four games at the time.

Without Kevin Durant, and with D'Angelo Russell traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves, we'll see a similar version of the Curry who won back-to-back MVPs in 2015 and 2016. He'll once again be sharing a backcourt with Klay Thompson, who's missed the entire 2019-20 season with a torn ACL. Draymond Green is under contract for the next three years and should be thrilled to see his backcourt mates return.

The last time Curry took the court without Durant, he averaged a league-high 30.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 2.1 steals on shooting splits of .504/.454/.908.

While his numbers might not reach those levels now at age 32, his production combined with popularity and the Warriors' return to the playoffs should have him in place to become a starter once again.

West Starter (Backcourt): Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

Ron Jenkins/Associated Press

In only his second year, Doncic swept West backcourt voting, finishing No. 1 among fans, players and media alike. His 6.1 million fan votes nearly doubled second-place James Harden (3.7 million), making Doncic one of three players (along with Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James) to finish first in all three voting categories.

Doncic is sixth in scoring this season with 28.7 points, fourth in assists (8.7) and 19th in rebounding (9.3). He's the only player in the NBA to rank in the top 20 in all three categories.

The Mavericks have built the perfect system for Doncic to be successful, putting the ball in his hands and surrounding him with shooters, floor-spacers, pick-and-roll big men and a second star in Kristaps Porzingis.

Dallas is also better than most would have expected in its first year without Dirk Nowitzki, sitting at 40-27 overall and with an all-but-guaranteed playoff spot.

Doncic is quickly becoming one of the most popular NBA players worldwide, and his incredible production at just age 21 should make him a lock as a starter for the next decade-plus.

West Starter (Frontcourt): Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

In his first 19 career games, LeBron James averaged 16.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.4 assists and was shooting just 40.1 percent in 40.2 minutes.

Nineteen games into his own career, Zion Williamson is averaging 23.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists and converting 58.9 percent of his shots in just 29.7 minutes.

Williamson is never going to be the overall talent that James has become, but his career is off to a better start.

Naming him a starter for next season may seem premature, but he has built up a fanbase for years, starting early in his high school career with clips of his dunks found all over YouTube. Even though he's a rookie, people around the world have gotten to see his athleticism in action well before his time in the NBA.

His stats should only improve, especially as the Pelicans work with Williamson to find his ideal playing weight that will maximize both his lift and durability. He's already an outstanding finisher around the rim who's shown the ability to step out and hit the three-ball when called upon.

The success of the Pelicans should have some influence in the player and media votes. He's helped get them back into the playoff conversation after a dismal 6-22 start, improving the Pelicans by 13.6 points per 100 possessions when he's in the game.

West Starter (Frontcourt): Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Kawhi Leonard finished third in West frontcourt player voting this season behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis, likely because he played in fewer games thanks to load management. If he wants to beat out Davis for a starting spot next season, Leonard may need to increase his time on the court while helping lead the Clippers to a better record than their in-arena rivals.

Of course, another title run would do wonders for his popularity as well. No player in NBA history has ever won Finals MVP with three different teams. Leonard and James are each looking to become the first.

Leonard's numbers will make him an All-Star regardless, given his 26.9 points per game this season are a career high. He's also giving the Clippers 7.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.8 steals while playing high-level defense.

While he might not get the San Antonio fan vote any longer, people in Toronto and Los Angeles should continue to push Leonard into the All-Star Game starting lineup.

West Captain: LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

The last time LeBron James didn't start an All-Star Game, Twitter was still two years away from being created.

James' streak began in 2005, and he's been selected as a starter every year since, now a record 16 trips in a row.

His popularity certainly hasn't decreased, as he received the most fan votes (6.3 million) in 2020. He's the only player to be voted as a captain in all three years the NBA has used the new format.

There's no slowing down his production either. Playing point guard full-time, James leads the league with 10.6 assists per game, the highest mark of his 17-year career. He's also pouring in 25.7 points and grabbing 7.9 rebounds, the 10th time he's averaged at least 25-7-7 in a season.

Of course, the Lakers' success doesn't hurt. A No. 1 seed this season, Los Angeles projects to be near the top of the West again next season assuming Anthony Davis re-signs.

While Doncic may eventually overtake him as the West captain, expect James to hold on for at least one more year.

   

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