As the NBA leans further and further into threes, shooting (which was already the game's most important skill) has become incredibly valuable.
Seven of the top 10 teams in effective field-goal percentage, a number that adjusts for the added value of threes, are also in the top 10 of simple rating system (point differential plus strength of schedule). Six of the top 10 in three-point attempt rate are in the top 10 in SRS.
Taking and making jumpers, especially three-point jumpers, is a recipe for success. Not only do those threes give you an extra point per make, but they also lead to less tangible benefits like spacing the floor and scrambling defenses.
Think about how much attention has to be paid to off-ball catch-and-shoot threats like JJ Redick and Duncan Robinson. Think about how many times you've seen a half-court defense implode trying to cover a Stephen Curry pick-and-roll.
The value of shooting is immense. And in 2019-20, some of the most valuable shooters have done wonders for their teams' offenses. On the other hand, those who can't shoot but insist on doing so have cost their teams plenty of points.
Here, we'll take a look at both sides of that coin.
Coach David Thorpe, Executive Director of the ProTraining Center, returns to “The Full 48 with Howard Beck” to discuss coronavirus ramifications on the league, NBA games sans fans, LA Lakers vs LA Clippers, the Houston Rockets’ trouble, Boston Celtics’ Finals chances, Kenny Atkinson and the Brooklyn Nets, and where Gregg Popovich might be next season.
Methodology (and One Big Omission)
In an effort to account for both efficiency and volume, we'll use an Adam Fromal-concocted formula that served us well in August, when we endeavored to list the greatest three-point shooters of all time.
It's fairly simple, but we'll add a little tweak for purposes of this slideshow.
Take the player's points per shot on all attempts from 10 feet and out and subtract the league-average points per attempt on those same shots during the relevant time period. Then, multiply by the number of attempts.
We'll call the final number "points over average from 10-plus feet."
The relevant time period, of course, is 2019-20. That presents a bit of a dilemma, though. With Stephen Curry's months-long absence with a broken hand, he's out of this equation. There was a temptation to go with three- or five-year samples, but then certain 2019-20 snipers would be eliminated.
The compromise is limiting results to this campaign and explaining what happened to Curry and why leaving him out was cause for consternation.
In 2015-16, Curry's total points over average from 10-plus feet was an eye-popping 366.19. Redick, who finished second, was at 200.53. For further context, this season's leader in the clubhouse is on pace for a mark just shy of 240.
When Curry is healthy, the title for "most valuable shooter" almost inevitably belongs to him.
Since he wasn't in 2019-20, someone else has the crown (for now).
If you want a look at the entire list, feel free to peruse here. Otherwise, let's analyze the top and bottom five.
503. Russell Westbrook (-104.15)
The philosophical shift to full-time small ball has done wonders for Russell Westbrook. In his 12 games since Clint Capela's final appearance for the Houston Rockets, Russ is averaging 31.3 points with a 53.7 eFG% (league average this season is 52.8).
He's wisely decided to inflict most of his damage inside, opting for more drives than jumpers. It's a good plan, because when he's shooting from 10 feet out, he's severely limiting Houston's offense.
For the season, Westbrook has taken 528 attempts from this range. He's only connected on 35.0 percent of those shots. His eFG% there is 39.9, almost 10 points shy of the average of 49.7.
Perhaps it should come as little surprise that the Rockets' offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) plummets 6.7 points when Westbrook is on the floor.
To his credit, Houston is scoring at a rate that ranks in 87th percentile when Russ plays without Capela. And again, his mindset seems to have shifted right along with his team's. Relentless drives are exponentially better for the Rockets and Westbrook than his jumpers are.
But when things get tight, he has a tendency to fall back on the jumper. He went a woeful 18-of-63 (28.6 percent) on shots from 10 feet and out in the 2019 postseason. In the 2018 postseason, he was 40-of-105 (38.1 percent) from there.
Houston might want to have someone on standby for playoff games who'll remind Westbrook how much better he is in the paint.
502. Aaron Gordon (-89.86)
Aaron Gordon's career has been something of an existential crisis.
"Am I a 3? A 4? Do positions even matter anymore?"
Gordon's willingness to at least try to be more than an old-school power forward is admirable. These days, most players with his size (6'8", 220 pounds) and athleticism are expected to do more than score and rebound.
But after nearly six full seasons in the NBA, it'd almost be irresponsible to buy any stock in Gordon's shooting ability. Sure, plenty of players throughout the league's history have had late-career breakouts in that department, but the numbers here are scary.
The career 31.8 three-point percentage is an obvious problem. What he's doing from the mid-range is even worse.
In 2019-20, Gordon has 100 points on 172 two-point attempts from 10 feet and out. That average of 0.58 points per attempt pales in comparison to the still-well-below-average 0.91 points he's scoring per three-point attempt.
Interestingly enough, though, Gordon isn't having a Westbrook-like adverse impact on the Orlando Magic's offense. On the contrary, Orlando is actually scoring 3.4 more points per 100 possessions with AG on the floor.
That number is buoyed by the fact that Gordon plays a lot of minutes with Nikola Vucevic. And the Magic offense is pretty bad overall. So, the baseline for "helping" is low.
Like Russ, Gordon might benefit from focusing more on scoring inside. Then, of course, he might have to ask himself, "Am I a 5?"
501. Jordan Poole (-88.93)
It's far too early to make any grandiose proclamations about a 20-year-old rookie, but it's probably fair to say: Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole is not.
In Curry's absence, Poole was given far more opportunity than he would've otherwise received. And boy oh boy, did he struggle with it.
On the year, Poole is shooting 32.7 percent from the field and 27.8 percent from three. Among the 1,621 individual seasons in which 259 threes (Poole's total) were attempted, Poole's 40.0 eFG% ranks 1,621st.
And yep, you guessed it, Poole's eFG% in the range in question (10 feet and out) is an even lower 38.1.
All of this would be a bit less alarming if Poole had an assist or steal rate that jumped off the screen. At the moment, he doesn't. His value, according to ESPN's Jay Bilas (h/t Warriors Wire) was supposed to come in the form of shooting:
"Jordan Poole is a shooter. He is a very smooth ball-handler and skilled. He has all kinds of moves, he has quick bursts and can change direction, but what makes his special is his shooting ability. Eighty-three percent as a free-throw shooter, and he had 12 games where he made three or more three-pointers this season. He can really space the floor, but he is skilled across the board. Still, a young player that has a lot of growth in him and obviously Golden State values his shooting very much."
Of course, that could all still be true. There's plenty of time for Poole to turn this around and prove himself a capable shooter. But after one season, he has some ground to make up there.
500. Jimmy Butler (-83.41)
It's hard to put a finger on exactly what happened, but Jimmy Butler's jump shot, particularly his three-point jumper, fell off a cliff this season.
He was never a marksman from out there to begin with, but 34.1 percent through 2018-19 was a decent clip from downtown. The tailspin to 24.8 percent this season defies explanation.
His accuracy on twos from 10 feet and out, where he's shooting 34.5 percent, is way off, as well. The only season in which he was worse from there was 2012-13.
Of course, these numbers haven't impacted the Miami Heat's bottom line in quite the same way as some of the other "least valuable shooters."
His true shooting percentage is still over a point above his career mark, thanks to a sky-high free-throw-attempt rate and a concerted effort to score inside.
His playmaking and defense have been undeniable pluses for Miami as well. When you take everything into account, as Erik Spoelstra explained in January, it overwhelms the shooting issues:
"No, I don’t [have concerns about Butler's shooting], and, look, I know that’s what everybody will look to quite naturally. There’s going to be ebbs and flows with the season, and that’s certainly not going to be something that we gameplan, hey try to miss a couple shots so we can win.
"I think that’s what young players should learn coming into the league of what a max player actually means. It’s not about stats, it’s not about that final number on the box score. It’s not about whatever 2K numbers you can get. It’s not. It’s about how your team functions and are you winning because of a player. And there is no debate about this: He’s having an incredible impact on our winning, on our bottom line, and that’s why we chased him so hard as a max player. "
Sure, Miami would probably like Butler to be making more jumpers this season, but he already has a net rating swing that ranks in the 78th percentile. And the Heat are on pace to smash their preseason over/under.
Butler has become one of the prime examples of "there's more to basketball than scoring."
499. Julius Randle (-76.89)
After a career season in which Julius Randle averaged 21.4 points on a well-above-average 60.0 true shooting percentage, the New York Knicks signed the big man to a three-year, $62.1 million deal.
He hasn't been bad in his first year under that contract, but he certainly hasn't been the player who earned it. And poor shooting has a lot to do with that.
Randle's three-point percentage went from 34.4 in 2018-19 to a closer-to-career-norms 27.1 in 2019-20. That hurts. But, as was the case with Gordon, the more problematic shot for Randle is the mid-ranger.
Randle is 64-of-165 (38.8 percent) on twos from 10 feet and out, giving him a worse yield on points per attempt (0.78) than he's gotten out of his 225 three-point attempts (0.81).
An occasional attempt from that range is probably fine (especially if a player is going to put in plenty of time working on it), but if you can't hit at least 40 percent of your mid-range looks, it's time to get closer.
Randle still takes over a third of his total attempts in the range of zero to three feet, but the inaccurate jump shooting has him well below average in true shooting percentage in 2019-20.
5. Khris Middleton (+101.41)
We skip ahead nearly 500 spots to Khris Middleton, who's having a shooting season for the ages for the historically good Milwaukee Bucks.
Middleton just recently dropped out of the 50-40-90 club. His field-goal percentage has fallen to (gasp) 49.9 percent. If he bumps that number up and sneaks back in, Middleton's points per 75 possessions would rank sixth among 50-40-90 campaigns. Stephen Curry, Larry Bird, Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki would be the only players ahead of him.
Decent company, eh?
As it relates to the shots sampled here, Middleton has been a deadeye. On all attempts from 10 feet and out, he has an eFG% of 57.8. That mark is even more impressive when you consider how much lower his three-point-attempt rate is than those of the rest of the top five.
That Middleton is able to be relatively efficient from the mid-range makes him a serious outlier in today's NBA. Among players who've taken at least 100 twos from 10 feet and out, Middleton's 52.7 field-goal percentage ranks third. His number of attempts in that range nearly triples first-place Seth Curry's and more than doubles second-place Kevin Love's.
And though the anti-analytics crowd would have you think that modern basketball is all about threes, the truth is that these players who can still add value in the mid-range are, well, valuable.
Middleton forces defenses to pay attention at all three levels. If defenses are keyed in on crowding the three-point line, there may be a bit more space inside it. Middleton can do plenty of damage there.
4. JJ Redick (+110.65)
From here on out, this list is all players with the primary role of "floor-spacer." And Redick has been one of the very best at that for a decade.
Over the last 10 seasons, Redick is fifth in total threes, ninth in three-point percentage (minimum 500 attempts), 14th in threes per 75 possessions and tied for 17th in eFG%.
"I think every shot is going in," Redick told GQ's Clay Skipper. "I won't take a shot unless I think it's going to go in."
Defenses seem to have a similar confidence in Redick's shooting. The attention he commands as he's flying around off the ball has a very real effect on his teams' attacks. Defenders are forced to do whatever they can to stay on Redick's hip as he makes cuts or curls or pops off screens. As that happens, defenses are generally stretched out, making more room for Redick's teammates.
He hasn't had a negative offensive rating swing since 2009-10. In other words, in each of the last 10 seasons, Redick's squads have scored more points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor. And in five of those seasons, his offensive rating swing ranked in the 90th percentile or better.
This season, Redick's eFG% is 61.0 on all attempts from 10 feet and out. Getting just over 1.2 points per attempt from a jump-shooter is a huge win. That's around the same output as Kyrie Irving, often lauded as one of the game's best finishers, in the range of zero to three feet.
3. Davis Bertans (+119.73)
Years from now, when analysts attempt to break down what happened during the chaotic NBA summer of 2019, some will surely struggle to understand why the San Antonio Spurs let Davis Bertans go.
Last season, San Antonio was 24th in the league in threes made per 100 possessions. Bertans was, by far, the team's leader in three-point-attempt rate. And it scored 10.0 more points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor.
Of course, the Spurs can spin the loss by saying they were expecting to get Marcus Morris Sr., but that doesn't erase trading their best floor-spacer, when lack of shooting was one of their bigger weaknesses. Bertans is three years younger and had a significantly better box plus/minus than Morris in 2018-19.
And when he went to a team willing to unleash his outside shooting prowess, his offensive impact increased.
Bertans' current offensive box plus/minus is nearly triple the mark he posted last season. His average of 4.4 threes made per 75 possessions ranks ninth all-time among individual seasons with at least 1,000 minutes. When he's sharing the floor with Bradley Beal, the Washington Wizards are scoring a mind-boggling 121.7 points per 100 possessions (99th percentile).
In short, Bertans' shooting adds a layer to Washington's offense it simply lacked in years past. Not only is he rocking a 61.6 eFG% on all shots from 10 feet and out, he's posting an absurd 75.0 eFG% on his 90 attempts from 28 feet and out.
Bigs having to cover Bertans that far from the basket has been a game-changer for Beal and the rest of the Wizards. And it must intrigue Wizards fans eager to see how he'll space things out for John Wall, should the two ever get the chance to play together (Bertans is a free agent this summer).
2. Seth Curry (+124.24)
It seems fitting that in a season mostly missed by Steph, his younger brother, Seth Curry, would have an all-time great three-point shooting campaign.
There are only 11 players in NBA history with seasons in which they matched or exceeded Curry's current marks for three-point percentage and three-point-attempt rate. Add points per 75 possessions to the mix, and Curry stands alone.
He's lighting it up from the mid-range, as well (though on relatively low volume). As noted earlier, Curry leads the NBA in field-goal percentage on two-point attempts from 10 feet and out. His 56.1 percent there tops the marks of 15 players in the range of zero to three feet.
In other words, a mid-range attempt from Curry is worth more than a layup from Carmelo Anthony. That may be taking some liberties with the term "layup" (who knows how well Melo's covered on those), but you get the point.
In terms of how Curry's shooting is impacting his team, the Dallas Mavericks are pouring in 119.8 points per 100 possessions (99th percentile) when Curry shares the floor with Luka Doncic.
Going forward, the blueprint for maximizing Doncic appears to be spreading the floor and surrounding him with shooting. And Curry looks like an almost perfect fit.
1. Duncan Robinson (+183.95)
No one, save perhaps Robinson himself, could have possibly seen this level of impact coming from the Miami sharpshooter a year ago.
The undrafted rookie shot 48.3 percent from three in the G League in 2018-19, but he was just 10-of-35 (28.6 percent) for the big club.
His career high scoring average in college was 11.2 points. This season, he's averaging 13.3 points for an NBA team heading for 50-plus wins. His career three-point percentage in college was 41.9. He's at 45.3 percent for the Heat right now.
The most shocking number might be his 68.4 true shooting percentage, a mark that is tied for third all-time among seasons with at least 100 three-point attempts.
"Defenses can’t let Robinson have an inch of space, otherwise they are likely going to surrender three points," SB Nation's Ricky O'Donnell wrote. "The defensive attention he attracts lets his teammates have wide-open paths to the basket."
Robinson is almost never standing in those paths, either. He has 243 makes from 10 feet and out this season. Only three of those field goals were two-pointers, which is a big part of why Robinson's eFG% in this range is a whopping 66.6.
On a team with two All-Stars who actually subtract value as jump-shooters—Butler and Bam Adebayo—it helps to have perhaps the game's most dangerous outside threat.
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