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Every Contender's Biggest Hurdle to an NBA Championship

Dan Favale

Title contenders are the envy of the NBA. They are what every franchise aspires to be, immediately or down the line. That doesn't make them perfect.

Especially now.

This year's championship race is significantly more open following the fall of the Golden State Warriors' dynasty. The Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers are lording over everyone, but nearly one-third of the league can talk itself into making it out of its respective conference if things break reasonably right.

Everything matters amid such a crowded field. Every potential roadblock, every potential flaw, however insignificant or glaring, is critical. Blips on the margins have determined title pushes before, and they are more liable to swing entire fates now.

Pinpointing every contender's biggest hurdle is a straightforward process. It is the obstacle, void or inherent flaw that stands to haunt that team most in the playoffs.

Winnowing down the championship candidates is more inexact. We've settled on the eight squads that seem best equipped to reach the NBA Finals. They may need to make changes in advance of the trade deadline or on the buyout market, but they are, by most measures, less than one major addition away from genuinely contending for the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

1-Player-Away Contenders

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Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic has the Mavericks a stone's throw away from contention but not quite there. Without a fully healthy Kristaps Porzingis and a higher-impact two-way wing, they don't yet feel like a best-of-seven match for the Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers of the world.

     

Indiana Pacers

Victor Oladipo's eventual return isn't enough to elevate the Pacers any higher. He's bound to be rusty after recovering from a ruptured right quad tendon, and anything less than his 2017-18 self puts them on the outskirts of the main title discussion.

We still have to account for the possibility. The Pacers are hanging around the home-court-advantage race without Oladipo. If he's anywhere close to 100 percent by the playoffs, or if they can find a wing at the trade deadline who helps increase their three-point and transition volume, they'll be a team no favorite wants to face.

Hell, they may already be exactly that.

     

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo has given Jimmy Butler a legitimate co-star. The Heat still need another one—a playmaker, preferably on the wings, who helps get stops on the outside and can orchestrate the offense.

This isn't a shot at Adebayo. Bigs just have a harder time floating lineups on their own, even when they're deft passers. Miami is getting outscored by 5.6 points per 100 possessions with an offensive rating in the 19th percentile when he plays without Butler. Beefing up those minutes has to be a priority.

       

Toronto Raptors

Please appreciate that the Raptors are here at all. They not only lost Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard over the offseason but have also been ravaged by injuries to pretty much all their most important players at one point or another—and sometimes simultaneously.

Hovering this close to the contender conversation amid so much lost manpower is absurd. Toronto has a top-two defense, despite an inconsistent presence on the glass, and is getting All-NBA cases from both Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam.

A playmaking wing is, seemingly, all that's missing from the Raptors' armory. That's a fairly tall order, but they have expiring contracts and picks to dangle if the buy-now mood strikes. Emphasis on if. Team president Masai Ujiri has designs on 2021 free agency and could still fire up a reset over the offseason. Toronto is unlikely to mortgage any part of its future without knowing what's in store for next year.

Boston Celtics: Superstar Bigs

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The extent to which the Boston Celtics need to add more size is being overblown. They are third in defensive efficiency and sixth in the share of opponent attempts that come at the rim.

Center by committee with Enes Kanter, Daniel Theis and Robert Williams III (dealing with a hip injury) has, for the most part, worked. The Celtics also have Grant Williams-at-the-5 lineups up their sleeve. They can enter the postseason as currently constructed and feel pretty confident about their chances of throwing the Eastern Conference for a loop.

Being content, or potentially good enough, is different from being ready. Boston's lack of size isn't universally insurmountable, but in certain matchups, it will be.

Are you staring at the Philadelphia 76ers' depth chart, too? The Celtics are winless in three tries against one of the league's most disappointing teams. Their most recent loss came against a Sixers squad that didn't have Joel Embiid.

Entering a best-of-seven set with only Kanter and Theis (and maybe Williams) to tussle with Philly's frontline is hardly ideal. The Celtics can hope the Sixers' struggles continue and that they wouldn't need to face them before the Eastern Conference Finals...or at all. Crossed fingers do not amount to a solution.

And besides, Boston's frontcourt rotation isn't exactly a sure thing in other potential matchups. The defense has been better than expected with Kanter in the middle, and Theis' footwork remains underappreciated. But they're not unequivocally suited to rumble with the big-man rotations in Milwaukee and Toronto, or even Indiana and Miami.

Trading for a marquee center is out of the question. The Celtics don't have the salary-matching tools to roll the dice on, say, Steven Adams without moving Jaylen Brown (poison pill), Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum or Kemba Walker. They're not touching their core five. Not now.

Waiting for the buyout market to develop is always an option. One or two impact bigs could find their way into late-season free agency. Boston could also try to broker deals for cheaper centers by sweetening packages with some combination of Williams III, Romeo Langford and picks.

Possibly gettable names that would be worth sniffing around include Taj Gibson, Jakob Poeltl and Cody Zeller. Mo Bamba would be an interesting option as well if the Celtics want to fight brute force with five-out lineups that don't sacrifice too much on the defensive glass.

Denver Nuggets: Three-and-D Wing

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Three-and-D wings are the most coveted finishing touches among contenders. That's either good or bad for the Denver Nuggets, depending on how you view it.

Adding a strong wing defender who can stroke threes at an above-average clip on modest-to-high volume would complete a roster that is contending for the Western Conference's No. 2 seed despite its flaws. But finding that available player and then actually acquiring him will be tough. 

Denver is working from a position of strength on the trade market relative to other championship hopefuls. This year's first-rounder belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder (top-10 protection), but its asset stores are adequately stocked with prospects and digestible salary filler.

Including a 2022 first-rounder is always on the table, as well. Most other contenders will be hard-pressed to beat offers built around Mason Plumlee's expiring salary, Malik Beasley and a future pick. The Nuggets can also go nuclear by dangling Gary Harris in talks if the returning haul is right.

Executing the search itself will be harder than cobbling together an enticing package. Jae Crowder, Robert Covington and Marcus Morris Sr. all loom as potential options, but are they good enough shooters?

Crowder is hitting more of his threes in recent weeks but has always been touch-and-go from beyond the arc. He's downing 25.4 percent of his treys since Thanksgiving. Covington is burying 35.0 percent of his looks from deep, his lowest mark since 2016-17, and Denver needs someone who can bang in jumpers on the move.

Morris is nailing 48.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot treys and 44.1 percent of his triples off the dribble, but he'd be primed for regression on a team that doesn't put the ball in his hands as often.

Investing in anyone less than a sure thing doesn't fly for the Nuggets. They have enough fringe shooters—Harris chief among them—and are better off funneling more reps to Michael Porter Jr. if they're not getting a two-way heavy-hitter.

At the same time, they don't necessarily have the luxury to do nothing.

They are 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions over their past 20 games, during which time they've allowed too many looks from the corners. Their top-10 offensive rating comes on a 21st-place effective field-goal percentage and bottom-seven free-throw-attempt rate. They need to bake some variance into their perimeter ranks on both ends of the floor.

Houston Rockets: Defensive Wing

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Anyone more concerned with the Houston Rockets' performance when James Harden is on the bench has the right idea. Those minutes have certainly been an issue and a point of relitigation for the Chris Paul trade.

Houston is getting outscored by 2.0 points per 100 possessions when Russell Westbrook runs the show without Harden. That is...not great. And it pales in contrast to Paul. The Rockets were plus-8.3 points per 100 possessions last season during his solo minutes.

Still, lineup composition matters here. Houston got by on its defense last year when Paul played on his own. Westbrook-only arrangements have fallen short on that end. They're posting an offensive rating in the 67th percentile—without much Eric Gordon-inclusive time, mind you—while hemorrhaging 113.6 points per 100 possessions (20th percentile).

Surrounding Westbrook with three of Gordon, Danuel House Jr., Ben McLemore, Austin Rivers, Thabo Sefolosha and P.J. Tucker on the wings isn't going to stabilize the defense. Working in more Tucker during those spurts might help, but that then eats into the time he spends alongside Harden. Lineups with Tucker and Westbrook alone have not been particularly successful, either.

Getting another defensive-minded wing should help the Rockets better navigate their no-Harden minutes—not to mention their entire rotation. (Of note: Houston is 11th in defensive efficiency over the past month.)

Striking a trade for this type of player may prove impossible. The Rockets have "serious interest" in Robert Covington, according to The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor, but don't have the requisite salary-matching pieces to pull off that kind of move.

Harden, Tucker and Westbrook aren't going anywhere, and Gordon can't be dealt after signing his extension. Moving Capela doesn't make much sense without a blockbuster-ish return. Houston will have to get super creative or set its sights lower, focusing instead on players making Reggie Bullock and Jae Crowder money or less.

Los Angeles Clippers: Playmaking Shooter

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Every potential roadblock to the Los Angeles Clippers' title push comes with a disclaimer: They're clearly unbothered by regular-season results, and they're 14-4 whenever Paul George and Kawhi Leonard play together. Nothing's wrong in a damning sense.

And yet, the Clippers have a few different hiccups worth harping on. They could use an upgrade at the Moe Harkless spot, a higher-end, matchup-proof alternative to Montrezl Harrel and Ivica Zubac and another playmaker who can work off the ball and get the offense moving around George and Leonard.

Settling on any one of those issues is fine. A playmaking shooter seems most pressing, though, given Los Angeles' blah three-point-attempt rate and accuracy. As ClippersMaven's Sabreena Merchant wrote:

"The problem is that the Clippers' offense doesn't involve a ton of counters beyond their stars. They have to work so hard to generate offense beyond their core four scorers. I'd like to see more weakside actions; that means Landry Shamet has to be better, and the coaching staff has to find better ways of utilizing Shamet after he was such an integral piece of their offense a year ago."

Addressing this issue may not require a trade. As Merchant noted, the Clippers have Shamet. Off-ball motion is supposed to be his primary gig, but he's finishing around screens far less often this season. Darren Collison is also considering a comeback with one of the L.A. teams, and landing him would give the Clippers another playmaking outlet.

Failing that, they'll have to hit the trade market.

Marcus Morris Sr. has the makings of an ideal target and is someone who interests them, per the New York Post's Marc Berman. With the way he's shooting off the dribble, he could take care of almost everything they need: shooting, an upgrade at the 4 and offensive optionality beyond George, Leonard and Lou Williams.

Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron-Less Minutes

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Singling out the minutes the Los Angeles Lakers have to play without LeBron James feels a little nitpicky. He's LeBron James. They're obviously going to be worse without him, and once the playoffs roll around, his stints on the bench will only total between five and eight minutes in non-blowouts.

Guess what: Those short spans make all the difference. Just ask last year's Philadelphia 76ers. They were outscored by 109 points in the 99 minutes Joel Embiid spent on the bench during the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The time they played without him cost them that seven-game series.

James won't watch from the sidelines for nearly as long as Embiid, but the point stands. The Lakers have to worry about how they fare without him. So far, the returns aren't great.

Los Angeles is getting outscored by 1.9 points per 100 possessions when James sits with an offensive rating that falls in the 57th percentile. That deficit has actually increased with Anthony Davis in those lineups, though his recent stay on the sidelines (glute injury) has halted the sample size and potentially skewed the results.

The Lakers are acutely aware of how much they need another playmaker—a LeBron-less buffer, if you will. They contacted the Sacramento Kings about Bogdan Bogdanovic's availability, per the Los Angeles Times' Tania Ganguli. Someone of his skill set, who can both handle the ball and serve as a secondary outlet beside James, makes too much sense.

Asking price will be the Lakers' biggest hurdle to striking a deal for Bogdanovic or any other substantive upgrade.

They're not flush with future picks, and the number of implicit no-trade clauses on the roster makes matching inbound salary difficult. Kyle Kuzma should be a viable draw in negotiations, but he doesn't earn enough to bring back someone on his own, and Los Angeles cannot afford to ship out its best swing piece for an afterthought return.

Winning the Darren Collison sweepstakes could solve the problem without costing the Lakers more than a roster spot. Beyond that, they'll need to focus on trade targets who don't invite bidding wars from other teams with better asset collections—and don't play for rivals who will be hesitant to help out a fellow contender.

Potential options that spring to mind: D.J. Augustin, Alec Burks, Bryn Forbes, Shabazz Napier and Derrick Rose.

Milwaukee Bucks: Playmaking Shooter

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It is tempting to leave the Milwaukee Bucks' biggest championship obstacle blank. They are playing like the entire league's largest roadblock to a title and remain, as of now, the most complete product from top to bottom.

Worried about the time Giannis Antetokounmpo spends on the bench? Don't be. The Bucks have the Association's highest bench differential per 100 possessions and are bulldozing opponents in the time they've logged without him—about half of which has come while Middleton also sits.

Brook Lopez's bricky three-point shooting is a concern, and Milwaukee's 4-5 rotation isn't especially deep outside the starting five. Neither issue has proved problematic. Antetokounmpo-at-center lineups are an antidote to both, and those combinations are demolishing opponents.

In lieu of implying the Bucks are built to perfection, we default to the "need" for another playmaking shooter. The offense bogged down in the Eastern Conference Finals last season when the Toronto Raptors wrought hell on Antetokounmpo and Middleton, and Eric Bledsoe has, shall we say, been less than trustworthy in playoff settings.

Busting up the Bucks seems like it'll be harder now. Few playoff opponents have the option of sticking a Kawhi Leonard-type defender on Antetokounmpo, and coaxing him into jumpers is no longer an airtight approach.

Keeping him out of the restricted area is unimaginably hard in general, and he's more comfortable than ever jacking shots from the perimeter. The percentages still aren't great, but his volume has value. He's knocking down as many pull-up threes per game as Spencer Dinwiddie, LeBron James and Donovan Mitchell—and more than Devin Booker, CJ McCollum and Chris Paul.

Bledsoe might be more postseason-proof himself. He's 25-of-63 on off-the-dribble threes this season (39.7 percent) and scoring a mind-melting 1.32 points per possession out of isolation plays (98th percentile). Defenses will be tougher to crack in the playoffs, but Milwaukee's all-out lineups at least leave the door open for him to buoy the offense if and when Antetokounmpo and Middleton are neutralized.

Seeking outside help still wouldn't be a bad idea. Finding this year's version of what they were hoping Nikola Mirotic might be last season would be a demonstrative boon. They have the Indiana Pacers' first-round pick to dangle (lottery-protected) and can sweeten the pot further with D.J. Wilson or Donte DiVincenzo.

Landing a player like Bogdan Bogdanovic, JJ Redick or, if they don't mind his sitting out until after the All-Star break, Luke Kennard would be ideal. Marcus Morris Sr. would be a nice fit, too. Should-be-cheaper alternatives include Malik Beasley, Davis Bertans, Alec Burks and Dario Saric.

Philadelphia 76ers: Playmaking Shooter

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No contender has a more glaring need than the Philadelphia 76ers. They need a playmaking shooter in the worst way.

Their starting five has murdered opponents on the defensive end but owns an offensive rating in the 27th percentile and an effective field-goal percentage in the 49th percentile. Even if they're specifically built to thrive during the playoffs, clumpy floor balance and a dearth of face-up perimeter scorers will eventually get them into trouble.

Hunting down a playmaking shooter to fill the voids left by Landry Shamet (shipped out in the Tobias Harris trade) and JJ Redick (left as a free agent) isn't just the right call. It is the only call.

This search is already underway, per ESPN's Tim MacMahon. It should be a relatively limited one. The Sixers don't have the dispensable salary-matching tools to strike a blockbuster trade. Acquiring a player earning more than around $12 million demands they jettison one of their starters or figure out a way to push through three- or four-for-one scenarios. 

Combining Mike Scott and Zhaire Smith is the Sixers' most useful package. It allows them to take back a little over $12 million in salary before hitting the tax. But those two alone aren't putting them in play for Bogdan Bogdanovic, Luke Kennard (injured), Tomas Satoransky, et al. They'll need to grease the wheels with picks or aim for cheaper alternatives like D.J. Augustin, Malik Beasley, Alec Burks, Bryn Forbes, Langston Galloway and Denzel Valentine.

Deviating from the playmaking-shooter archetype should be considered a no-no. The Sixers have shown interest in bringing back Robert Covington, per The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor. But for the draft equity it'll take to make pretty much any deal work, they shouldn't be going after players who don't noticeably elevate their offensive ceiling.

Utah Jazz: The Mike Conley Question

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Mike Conley's arrival has not gone according to the Utah Jazz's plan.

He was supposed to diversify their offense, inoculating them against the shot-creation and -making implosions that derailed their past playoff campaigns. He has instead missed roughly half the season battling a hamstring issue and has underwhelmed when healthy. His true shooting percentage is currently the worst of his career, and he never found his footing out of the pick-and-roll while playing without a spread big.

Trading for Jordan Clarkson has afforded the Jazz some leeway. Ditto for moving Joe Ingles back to the starting lineup. They're 15-3 since making the change with the league's best offensive rating and effective field-goal percentage.

But this upswing has come against a less-than-formidable schedule and, more importantly, without Conley. His eventual return forces Utah to ask some tough questions.

Sending Ingles back to the bench is a non-starter, so what should they do? Stick Royce O'Neale in the second unit? Bring Conley off the pine? Should they default to starting him and then more stringently stagger his minutes with Donovan Mitchell?

Writing off Conley as a sunk cost, even for just this season, isn't an option.

The Jazz compromised their capacity to cover bigger wings by sending Jae Crowder to the Memphis Grizzlies and downgraded their backup-big rotation by shipping Derrick Favors to the New Orleans Pelicans. They need the defensive continuity Conley offers in the backcourt, if only to narrow down the list of potential assignments for Ingles and O'Neale.

        

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering games on Wednesday. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders, Early Bird Rights and Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.

   

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