It's sounding more and more like the Colorado Rockies might actually trade Nolan Arenado.
On the heels of earlier reports from MLB Network's Jon Heyman and MLB.com's Jon Morosi, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic chimed in Thursday with his own affirmation that the Arenado sweepstakes are indeed active.
The superstar third baseman still has $234 million remaining on the eight-year, $260 million contract extension he signed in February. His pact also comes with a full no-trade clause, plus an opt-out following the 2021 season.
So before we can imagine what the Rockies might get for Arenado, we must first size up his trade value.
What Is Nolan Arenado's Trade Value?
Arenado's seven consecutive Gold Gloves are a fitting testament to his glovework at the hot corner. His bat, meanwhile, has produced a .937 OPS and 40 home runs per year since 2015.
According to Baseball Reference, he's been worth a National League-high 30.9 wins above replacement over the last five seasons. And he's still only 28 years old.
But as with most hitters who spend half their time at Coors Field, Arenado's home/road splits take some of the air out of his offensive track record. Even if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause, those splits, plus his remaining money and looming opt-out could rightfully make some teams wary of dealing for him.
Yet the Rockies might aim for something like the trade of Giancarlo Stanton from the Miami Marlins to the New York Yankees in 2017.
The Yankees took on Stanton, who was fresh off winning the NL MVP, with $265 million out of $295 million remaining on his contract. The Marlins further evened out the financials by accepting Starlin Castro and the $22 million remaining on his deal, and they also surrendered two prospects: right-hander Jorge Guzman and shortstop Jose Devers.
An Arenado trade might have a similar structure, in that the Rockies get back a lesser albatross and a pair of prospects. Yet Arenado is a healthier and more consistent star who's also cheaper now than Stanton was then. And while the Rockies clearly want to cut payroll, they don't seem interested in a full-on rebuild.
They therefore might extract more value for Arenado than Miami did for Stanton. Let's speculate on six possibilities, ranked subjectively from worst to best.
6. Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies are primed for a playoff push in 2020 after adding Zack Wheeler to their starting rotation and Didi Gregorius to their star-studded lineup.
Yet said lineup could use an upgrade at a third base spot that produced only 0.6 WAR in 2019. Arenado is just the man for the job, and his arrival would have the added benefit of freeing up Scott Kingery to roam around.
The Phillies probably wouldn't mind jettisoning Jake Arrieta, Jay Bruce, David Robertson or Odubel Herrera. Robertson, however, is out for 2020 with Tommy John surgery. The Rockies are loaded with left-handed-hitting outfielders, so they don't need Bruce or Herrera, the latter of whom is also coming off a suspension for domestic violence allegations.
By default, that leaves Arrieta and the $20 million he's owed in 2020. But since the 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner has fallen from ace to back-end starter in recent years, the Rockies would need some of the better talents from Philly's weak farm system to accompany him to Colorado.
If not third baseman Alec Bohm, then at least 23-year-old right-hander Spencer Howard, who's MLB.com's No. 88 prospect. The Rockies might also like to have 20-year-old catcher Rafael Marchan.
The Package: RHP Jake Arrieta, RHP Spencer Howard and C Rafael Marchan
5. Washington Nationals
Now that Anthony Rendon has moved across the country to join the Los Angeles Angels, the Washington Nationals must replace him at third base.
Arenado is the best the Nats can possibly do in this regard, but the catch is that they and the Rockies don't line up so well as trading partners. Because their farm system is weak and free agency has decimated their major league roster, the Nationals simply don't have much to offer.
Still, there's a place in Colorado for outfielder Michael A. Taylor. His right-handed stick would break up the left-leaning party in their outfield. If all went well, his upside would quickly erase the minus-1.0 WAR the Rockies got out of center field in 2019.
Because Taylor is only projected to earn $3.3 million in his last year before entering free agency in 2020, the Rockies would need to pitch in some money in order to even out the financials and coax the Nationals into giving up some real prospects.
Assuming they do, the Rockies presumably wouldn't walk away without at least getting 19-year-old infielder Luis Garcia, who's MLB.com's No. 91 prospect. They could also go for 22-year-old left-hander Matt Cronin.
The Package: OF Michael A. Taylor, INF Luis Garcia and LHP Matt Cronin
4. Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers have added Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles to their starting rotation, but they still need a third baseman.
The position was worth only 0.3 WAR in 2019. Arenado would fix that right up, and he would also be the big right-handed stick the Rangers need alongside Joey Gallo in the middle of their lineup.
Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor have problematic contracts the Rangers might be willing to offload. Choo is the surest thing of the three right now. But with his contract up after 2020, he'd bring zero long-term upside to the Rockies.
Instead, they might prefer Odor and the $36.9 million remaining on his deal through 2022. Though he's been worse than a replacement-level player in two of the last three seasons, he's still only 25, and his 30-homer power might become 40-homer power in Colorado.
The Rockies could otherwise try to strong-arm the Rangers into coughing up 21-year-old catcher Sam Huff, who checks in at No. 73 in MLB.com's top 100. An MLB-ready pitcher such as 23-year-old lefty Brock Burke would be a nice capper.
The Package: 2B Rougned Odor, C Sam Huff and LHP Brock Burke
3. St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have a "longstanding interest" in Arenado, according to Rosenthal, and they need him now more than ever.
Not because they necessarily need a third baseman, but because they need an impact hitter, period. The Cardinals scored a mediocre 4.7 runs per game during the 2019 regular season. Further, their offense ultimately managed only six runs over four games in the National League Championship Series.
Since a trade for Arenado would effectively put Matt Carpenter out of a job, the Cardinals could try to interest the Rockies in the 34-year-old slugger.
If the Rockies believe Carpenter can put a rough 2019 behind him and reclaim his All-Star form of the previous six seasons, the $39 million he's owed through 2021 might not scare them so much. The only hurdle would be Carpenter's no-trade protection, which we'll assume he'd waive for playing time purposes.
After Carpenter, the Rockies probably couldn't pry loose the best talents from St. Louis' top-heavy system. But since the Cardinals are well-stocked with outfielders and catchers, the Rockies might target two breakout players from 2019: 19-year-old catcher Ivan Herrera and 24-year-old outfielder Randy Arozarena.
The Package: INF Matt Carpenter, C Ivan Herrera and OF Randy Arozarena
2. Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have picked up Will Smith, Cole Hamels and a handful of other noteworthy free agents. But for now, they have yet to re-sign slugging third baseman Josh Donaldson.
They might still do that, but it's ultimately hard to come up with reasons why they shouldn't be all-in on Arenado. Their lineup needs him, and they're ideally suited to pull off a trade with the Rockies.
For starters, the Braves can spare center fielder Ender Inciarte. Though he would be yet another left-handed-hitting outfielder, the Rockies might like the idea of having his three Gold Gloves in center field. He's also owed a reasonable $17.4 million through 2021.
The Rockies could then go shopping in Atlanta's third-ranked farm system. Special items such as Cristian Pache, Drew Waters and Ian Anderson would be off-limits. But the Rockies might have a shot at 24-year-old right-hander Kyle Wright, whose stock is down even though he still ranks as MLB.com's No. 35 prospect.
The Braves also have a selection of young catchers to choose from, and 21-year-old William Contreras could potentially be attainable.
The Package: CF Ender Inciarte, RHP Kyle Wright and C William Contreras
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Per Rosenthal, the Los Angeles Dodgers are yet another team with "longstanding interest" in Arenado. It's too bad they already have Justin Turner at third base.
Or is it? If Turner's offer to move to first base in deference to Rendon still stands, there's a place for Arenado in Los Angeles after all. The Dodgers also need his bat to balance out a dangerous yet left-leaning lineup.
A.J. Pollock, meanwhile, might work as a centerpiece for the Rockies. The 32-year-old center fielder flopped in the first season of a five-year, $60 million contract, yet he at least finished strong with an .885 OPS after July 11. Any more of that and he'll be worth the $56 million he's still owed.
If the Rockies were indeed willing to take back that much money, they could potentially talk the Dodgers into also parting with some legit high-level talent. For instance, MLB.com's 33rd-ranked prospect, Keibert Ruiz. The 21-year-old catcher is looking up at Will Smith on the Dodgers' depth chart anyway.
From there, the Rockies might also strive for an immediate addition to their starting rotation in the person of 25-year-old righty Tony Gonsolin.
The Package: CF A.J. Pollock, C Keibert Ruiz and RHP Tony Gonsolin
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference. Payroll data courtesy of Roster Resource. Salary arbitration projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.
Read 0 Comments
Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation