Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

MLB Teams Set Up to Dominate a Likely Chaotic Offseason Trade Market

Joel Reuter

Whether it's a seller with a high-profile trade chip or a buyer with the farm system to swing a blockbuster deal, certain teams are in more prominent positions than others when it comes to the offseason trade market.

This year's free-agent market is headlined by Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, with several other quality options likely to land lucrative multiyear deals.

The trade market, however, could prove to be equally impactful in altering the MLB landscape.

Ahead, we'll take a closer look at a handful of teams that could be major players in offseason swaps. It's a healthy mix of buyers with the blue-chip prospects to land a marquee trade target and sellers with the motivation to move those top-tier players. In short, the teams that are expected to be busiest this offseason are the ones that were included.

Offseason Wild Card: Cleveland Indians

Francisco Lindor Jason Miller/Getty Images

The Cleveland Indians captured three straight AL Central titles before winning 93 games in 2019 but missing the postseason.

After trading Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes and Yonder Alonso in an effort to trim payroll last offseason and then shipping out Trevor Bauer at the deadline, more key pieces could be on the move this winter.

Two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber will have his $17.5 million option exercised, according to Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal, but that doesn't mean he won't be shopped.

The 33-year-old made just seven starts in 2019 before suffering a forearm fracture and then an oblique strain. He's controllable for two more seasons with an $18 million option for 2021 as well, and his long track record of success could lead to someone trying to buy low.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor is projected for a hefty raise from $10.9 million to $16.7 million in his second year of arbitration, and he will have one final year of arbitration in 2021.

If the front office doesn't view signing him to a massive long-term deal as a legitimate possibility, selling high on him now for a blockbuster return could be in the franchise's best interest.

Closer Brad Hand also has plenty of appeal after making a third straight All-Star appearance in 2019.

The 29-year-old converted 34 of 39 save chances with a 3.30 ERA and 13.2 K/9 in 60 appearances, and he's set to earn $7.6 million in 2020 with a $10 million club option for 2021.

If the Indians decide to sell in an effort to cut costs or retool for the future, it would completely turn the offseason trade market on its head.

Buyers: Cincinnati Reds

Jonathan India Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Earlier this week, in an effort to predict the biggest shockers of the MLB offseason, I wrote the following while proposing the Cincinnati Reds as a landing spot for Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts:

"The Cincinnati Reds showed a willingness to zig while everyone else zagged last offseason, acquiring Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark and Alex Wood to shore up the starting rotation despite their perceived standing as a non-contender.

Then, they doubled down on that approach at the trade deadline, acquiring Trevor Bauer from the Cleveland Indians despite a 50-56 record at the time.

In other words, a Mookie Betts-to-Cincinnati trade is not as far-fetched as it might seem at first blush, especially with the Cincinnati front office eyeing the postseason in 2020."

Regardless of whether the team swings a blockbuster deal for Betts, expect it to be active once again as it looks to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

After Cincinnati sent outfield prospect Taylor Trammell to the San Diego Padres in the Bauer deal, it's hard to view any of its prospects as untouchable, though a healthy Hunter Greene is probably close.

Even if Greene is off the table, the team could still build an attractive trade package around left-hander Nick Lodolo, infielder Jonathan India, right-hander Tony Santillan or catcher Tyler Stephenson. Controllable outfielder Jesse Winker is also an attractive trade chip.

The NL Central could be wide-open once again in 2020, and the Reds are close to entering the fray.

Sellers: Pittsburgh Pirates

Starling Marte Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The Pittsburgh Pirates traded for Chris Archer and Keone Kela at the 2018 trade deadline with an eye on contending in 2019.

About that...

After hovering around .500 during the first half of the season, they went a disastrous 25-48 after the All-Star break to finish with a 69-93 record.

Manager Clint Hurdle seemingly lost control of the locker room during that second-half slide and was fired after nine seasons at the helm, making this an offseason of transition in more ways than one.

If the team decides to go full-on rebuilding mode, center fielder Starling Marte will be a hot commodity on the trade market. The 31-year-old just posted his second straight 20-20 season with a career-high 23 home runs and 25 steals, hitting .295/.342/.503 along the way for a 120 OPS+ and 2.9 WAR.

With an $11.5 million club option for 2020 and a $12.5 million club option for 2021, he has two remaining years of team-friendly control, and that will make him an attractive target for any team looking for an outfield upgrade.

The team also has a pair of $8.3 million options on the aforementioned Archer and could look to recoup some of the value it gave up to acquire him. Even coming off a season in which he posted a 5.19 ERA and 5.02 FIP in 119.2 innings, his track record will be enough to generate significant interest. Case in point, the New York Yankees had no problem finding a taker for Sonny Gray last offseason.

Hard-throwing reliever Michael Feliz would also be an attractive trade chip.

The 26-year-old has two seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected to earn a reasonable $1.2 million in 2020. He logged a 3.99 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 73 strikeouts in 56.1 innings this past season.

Buyers: San Diego Padres

Xavier Edwards Hector Vivas/Getty Images

No team in baseball has a deeper stable of cheap, controllable young talent than the San Diego Padres.

However, after spending big to sign Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado in free agency the past two years, they may turn to the trade market as a means of adding more established talent this offseason.

The most glaring need is a proven frontline starter to anchor a young rotation.

Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, Dinelson Lamet and Cal Quantrill all showed the potential to be long-term pieces with varying levels of upside, but Lamet is the elder statesman of that group at 27 years old and has just 187.1 innings under his belt at the MLB level.

MacKenzie Gore is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball and undoubtedly off limits in trade talks, while the same is likely true of center fielder of the future Taylor Trammell and fast-rising right-hander Luis Patino.

However, a strong trade package can still be built around the remaining top-tier prospects in the system.

With Luis Urias and Fernando Tatis Jr. penciled into the middle infield spots going forward, Xavier Edwards, Owen Miller and 2019 first-round pick CJ Abrams could all be viewed as redundant.

High-ceiling lefties Adrian Morejon, Ryan Weathers and Joey Cantillo also hold appeal, along with catching prospect Luis Campusano if the Padres feel comfortable with Austin Hedges and Francisco Mejia manning the position.

If the Padres hope to take the next step after a disappointing 70-92 finish, bolstering the starting rotation should be the No. 1 priority, and they have the pieces to pull off a major blockbuster.

Sellers: Boston Red Sox

Mookie Betts Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Are the Boston Red Sox going to trade Mookie Betts?

Here in the middle of October, that looks like the biggest question surrounding the upcoming MLB offseason, and it's one that will continue to be asked until we have an answer.

The Red Sox wrapped up the 2019 season with the highest payroll in baseball at just over $229 million, putting them well north of the $206 million luxury tax threshold.

That spending amounted to an 84-78 record and a third-place finish in the AL East, and now the front office has its sights set on getting below what will be a $208 million tax line in 2020, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

The team has roughly $151 million on the books for 2020, according to Spotrac.

However, another $70.1 million in projected arbitration raises has to be added to that figure, including a hefty $27.7 million projected salary for Betts.

To this point, Betts has shown no interest in pursuing an extension with the Red Sox, so it looks like he'll hit free agency following the 2020 season.

Flipping him now would be a tough pill to swallow, but it might be in the team's best interest as it looks to retool for the future. It would go a long way toward rebuilding a farm system that occupied the No. 30 spot in Bleacher Report's year-end rankings.

It's unclear whether Boston would consider selling anyone besides Betts, but left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez would also fetch a significant return after posting a 3.81 ERA with 213 strikeouts over 203.1 innings in a 6.0 WAR season.

Given his past inconsistency and injury history, selling high now when he still has two years of arbitration control remaining might be worth exploring.

Buyers and Sellers: Chicago Cubs

Kris Bryant Aaron Gash/Associated Press

After missing the playoffs for the first time in five years following a disappointing 84-78 finish that left them a distant third in the NL Central standings, change is coming for the Chicago Cubs.

They decided to part ways with manager Joe Maddon immediately following the conclusion of the regular season, as his contract expired and the team decided it was time for a new voice in the dugout.

The new manager likely won't be the only new face when Opening Day arrives in 2020.

A quiet offseason in which Daniel Descalso and Brad Brach were the only notable additions proved to be the wrong approach for a talented but ultimately flawed team.

When faced with questions about the idea of trading homegrown superstars Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, team president Theo Epstein didn't exactly throw water on the fire.

"I look at them both the same. They're fantastic players," Epstein told reporters, "and I don't think it's mutually exclusive. I think they're both hugely important, and it'd be hard to see them out of a Cubs uniform, but we're at a transition point, and we have to do whatever is best for the Cubs. I hope it includes both of those guys."

Bryant, 27, is two years removed from free agency and likely to be a tough sign as a Scott Boras client. Baez, 26, will also be a free agent following the 2021 season.

A replacement will need to be found for Cole Hamels in the starting rotation, and the entire bullpen will need to be rebuilt around high-priced closer Craig Kimbrel. The team will also need to seriously consider re-signing Nicholas Castellanos, who raked after joining the team in a July trade.

Flipping Bryant for a controllable starter and trading someone like Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora Jr. or Ian Happ to unclog the outfield logjam and open a spot for Castellanos is not out of the question.

Regardless of what happens, expect a much busier offseason on the North Side.

     

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Arbitration projections come via MLB Trade Rumors.

   

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