Vera Nieuwenhuis/Associated Press

Did John Elway Finally Get It Right by Drafting QB Drew Lock?

Brad Gagnon

One year after John Elway became general manager of the Denver Broncos in 2011, his regime acquired legendary quarterback Peyton Manning. But because Manning turned 36 that offseason, Elway and Co. knew they had to find a franchise quarterback of the future.

Later that offseason, they used a second-round draft pick on the physically enticing Brock Osweiler.

That was a miss. Osweiler has become a journeyman backup.

While the jury was still out on Osweiler as Manning finished his career, Elway used seventh-round picks on Zac Dysert and Trevor Siemian, neither of whom emerged as surprise stars either.

Less than two months after Manning retired following the 2015 season, Elway's front office used a first-round pick on another prototypically sized pocket passer in Paxton Lynch.

Another miss. Lynch was off the roster before his third NFL season, and nobody signed him in 2018.

Elway used another seventh-round pick on Chad Kelly in 2017, but Kelly is already out of Denver after throwing zero regular-season passes.

Elway went to the free-agent well and signed Case Keenum to a two-year, $36 million deal last offseason, in hopes that the veteran had bloomed late and wasn't a one-year wonder after Keenum posted the league's seventh-best passer rating as a successful starter with the 2017 Minnesota Vikings.

No dice. Keenum's numbers plummeted in Denver, and he was traded to the Washington Redskins.

This offseason, Elway doubled-dipped by dealing for veteran Baltimore Ravens quarterback (and Super Bowl XLVII MVP) Joe Flacco and trading up to select highly touted Missouri product Drew Lock in the second round of the draft.

Yes, two more tall dudes with cannon arms. Surprise!

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

But while Elway is adamant Flacco is his man, he's mistaken when he says—per Peter King of NBC Sports—he's "got a guy coming into his prime." Flacco is 34 and entering his 12th season. He's the second-lowest-rated qualified passer in the league since 2013. He's a stopgap. He's a bridge. Ideally, he's a mentor.

The long-term focus at quarterback in Denver has to be on Lock, who was widely projected as a potential top-10 pick during the predraft process. If someone had told you prior to the draft that the Broncos would wind up with Lock, you likely would have assumed they picked him with the 10th overall selection or later in the first round following a trade.

But when the Arizona Cardinals went with Kyler Murray, the New York Giants selected Daniel Jones and the Washington Redskins grabbed Dwayne Haskins in the top half of the first round, Lock surprisingly slid to No. 42. The Broncos passed on him twice in Round 1, first when they traded down from No. 10 and then again when they selected former Iowa tight end Noah Fant at No. 20.

But after they used their second-round selection on former Kansas State right tackle Dalton Risner at No. 41, the Broncos finally took advantage of Lock's enhanced value. Elway sent fourth- and sixth-round selections to the Cincinnati Bengals to move up 10 spots for the 6'4", 228-pound four-year starter from the SEC, and the countdown began for the Lock era in Denver.

Though there's less pressure on both Elway and Lock under these circumstances than there would be if Lock had become the first top-10 selection at quarterback in franchise history, Elway's lousy record as a GM in the quarterback pool means his future in the front office might still depend on Lock's success or lack thereof.

As awkward as it would be for ownership to part with Elway, there's a chance he won't get another opportunity to use an early draft pick on a passer.

At least he's confident in Lock.

"I can tell you they're high on Drew Lock," NFL insider Benjamin Allbright said of the Broncos on the Huddle Up Podcast. "High enough to take him? That's the question. Elway, when he met with Drew Lock down there in Mobile [at the Senior Bowl], he told him he was going to be a top-10 draft pick."

Prior to that, Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post reported Elway was "smitten with Lock," which makes sense considering Lock fits Elway's mold when it comes to size and arm talent.

Lock passed for more than 12,000 yards in 50 games at Missouri, throwing 99 touchdowns to 39 interceptions, only eight of which came in a lights-out senior season in which he completed 62.9 percent of his attempts.

That completion rate increased significantly throughout his career years with the Tigers, an indication he might be accurate enough to hold it down as an NFL starter.

Accuracy still isn't his strong suit, but Lock can make every throw, and Elway believes proper grooming and mechanical adjustments can help him become more consistent when it comes to hitting targets.

"I think technique is always a big thing," he said over the weekend, per ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold. "We talk about accuracy, and accuracy a lot of times comes down to technique and throwing on rhythm. We believe he has a ton of talent, but we also believe he has a lot left to work on."

Lock will have to learn he can't rely solely on his golden arm in the NFL. He'll have to improve his footwork, correct some of his tendencies to panic under pressure and make better decisions to excel. But he'll have time to work on all that while Flacco serves as the starter.

And when he does get his chance, Lock should at least be well-supported. Missouri was often overmatched in the SEC, but Denver won't face as many disadvantages. The Broncos not only have a talented defense featuring veteran stars Von Miller, Chris Harris Jr., Kareem Jackson and Bryce Callahan (along with rising star Bradley Chubb) but also an offense headlined by two-time Pro Bowler Emmanuel Sanders, 2018 rookie sensation Phillip Lindsay, big-money free-agent addition Ja'Wuan James and recent high draft picks Courtland Sutton and Garett Bolles. The Broncos should be in fine shape after adding Fant and Risner.

In the right situation and with the right timing, Lock could get away with a gunslinger approach. And the stars just might be aligning in Colorado.

When will his first opportunity come? Elway isn't about to give up on Flacco, but Denver is coming off a third consecutive non-playoff season, so an extended rough stretch might do the trick. Additionally, Lock could get a shot if the Broncos are out of contention late in 2019, regardless of Flacco's performance. That wouldn't necessarily mark an audition for the 2020 starting job, but Flacco's salary-cap hit will increase from $18.5 million in 2019 to $20.3 million in 2020 and then to $24.3 million in 2021, according to Spotrac. None of that money is guaranteed.

It's hard to imagine Elway will keep his job if both Flacco and Lock fail, but it could take several years before we get a verdict on both of those players.

In the meantime, Elway and the Broncos will have to wait. And hope.

Because while it's usually unfair to tie a general manager's future to that of a second-round project, things change when said GM has swung and missed as often as Elway.

         

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

   

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