Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

2019 NFL Draft: Immediate Do-Overs We Would Love to See

Derrik Klassen

There is no perfect formula for drafting. Players surprise every year, whether they're an undrafted free agent-turned-Pro Bowler or a first-round pick who never starts a game. Likewise, no two franchises have the same needs or are at the same stage in their team-building process, therefore it can be difficult to directly compare how squads approach the draft.

Still, there are certain standards teams can follow to more consistently find the right players. Taking advantage of a top-10 pick, selecting players geared to succeed in a passing league and valuing the right positions at the right spots all go into taking the best prospects. In some cases, knowing when to make a bold decision can make or break a franchise.

With that in mind, let's take a look at a few teams who may want a do-over on the first few rounds of the 2019 NFL draft.

New York Giants: Draft Like It's 2019, Not 1979

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Giants general manager David Gettleman seems to believe outdated team-building models are viable. If drafting a running back No. 2 overall last year wasn't enough evidence of his old-fashioned ways, this year's first-round crop drove home the message.

The Giants took Duke quarterback Daniel Jones at No. 6. Never mind that Jones' film was that of a Day 2 player; the statistics didn't support this pick.

Per Bill Connelly of SB Nation, Jones posted a 39.6 percent success rate and 5.45 adjusted net yards per attempt at Duke. Considering no quarterback surpasses their college success rate within their first four NFL years, a dismal 39.6 percent success rate puts a low ceiling on Jones' early returns.

By contrast, Kyler Murray came in at 53.4 percent and Dwayne Haskins at 53.2 percent. The cutoff for a passable success rate is about 47-49 percent. Jones' collegiate success rate is most comparable to Jake Locker's, as the former Titan posted a 40.0 percent success rate in college and 38.3 percent in the pros.

What's more, Gettleman hinted that Jones could sit for as many as three years behind Eli Manning. Decades ago, when quarterback development was more realistic because of looser CBA rules regarding practice times, sitting a project QB for years was a fine strategy.

However, the CBA changed to limit practice time and rules in 2011. The league is also such that passing is so important that stacking a roster around a young, effective quarterback on a rookie deal is the best way to win. The Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs have all proved that to different degrees over the past handful of years.

Gettleman's dated draft strategies didn't stop with Jones. With the 17th pick—the one the Giants received from the Browns for Odell Beckham Jr.—New York drafted Clemson's Dexter Lawrence. Lawrence is a good player who can anchor a defensive line, but he is primarily a run-stopper who is adequate in the passing game.

With Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and now Dwayne Haskins in the NFC East, in a league geared toward passing, drafting a run-stopping defensive tackle with that high a pick feels like an outdated move, even if Lawrence is a solid player.

Oakland Raiders: Shoot for Upside at No. 4

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

No franchise was positioned to smash the first round the way the Oakland Raiders were.

Not only did they have three first-round picks—the most of any team—but they also held the No. 4 selection. Considering Murray, Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa and Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams were almost a given to be the first three players off the board, the draft intrigue started with the Raiders at No. 4.

Rather than swing for the fences on a high-potential prospect, the Raiders selected Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell. Though he racked up 27 sacks in his three years as a starter, his production was boosted in part because he was a cleanup player on a loaded defensive line.

Ferrell sports a polished set of pass-rushing moves and will hustle to finish plays, but he didn't test well at the combine and didn't show impressive flexibility around the edge on film. He was more of a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect projected somewhere in the middle to late first round. 

Most would've been surprised if he made the top 10 picks, much less the top five. With more exciting prospects such as Florida State's Brian Burns, Kentucky's Josh Allen and even Houston's Ed Oliver on the board, the Raiders missed a chance to get a potentially franchise-changing defensive player.

Cincinnati Bengals: Move On from the Andy Dalton Era

Frank Victores/Associated Press

The best time invest in a new quarterback is in unison with a coaching change. Earlier this offseason, the Cincinnati Bengals fired head coach Marvin Lewis and brought in former Rams quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor. Taylor's expertise will lend itself to better, or faster, development for a young signal-caller.

Haskins was available when the Bengals went on the clock at No. 11. He was arguably the best quarterback in the class and was certainly the best remaining when the Bengals picked. He's a smart, adaptable passer with plenty of room to grow, as he was only a one-year starter in college. For a team in need of a fresh start, Haskins could have been the man to get the ball rolling.

Instead, Cincinnati doubled down on Andy Dalton by drafting protection for him in Alabama offensive lineman Jonah Williams. Williams gives the Bengals a readymade tackle who can play both sides of the line and potentially slide inside to guard. His immediate impact and versatility will be a boost to the offense the moment he gets to camp.

Still, for as good as Williams may be, investing further in Dalton will haunt them.

Houston Texans: Don't Take the Developmental Offensive Tackle

Don Juan Moore/Getty Images

Save for offensive line, the Houston Texans have an AFC title-ready roster. Quarterback Deshaun Watson and wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are an electric young offensive core, while Houston's prowess on the defensive front with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney is well-documented. The Texans have the star power to go deep into the playoffs.

However, "save for an offensive line" is a big caveat. Football Outsiders tabbed the Texans as having the highest pressure rate allowed last season at 38.5 percent to go with their league-high 62 sacks allowed. Houston's offensive line was pitiful. The team signed guard Zach Fulton and tackle Matt Kalil this offseason, but Fulton, while an upgrade, is not a high-end player. Kalil may no longer be a starting-caliber NFL tackle. The Texans needed more.

Rather than target a lineman who could help immediately, such as Dalton Risner, who can play multiple positions, Jawaan Taylor or Cody Ford, the Texans took small-school project Tytus Howard at No. 23. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller ranked Howard as the sixth-best tackle behind Risner, Taylor and Kaleb McGary, all of whom were drafted after Howard.

Howard, though he has athletic upside, is more of a work in progress than the aforementioned players. He needs to tighten up his technique, and it will take time for him to adjust from the speed of playing at non-FBS Alabama State to the NFL. Considering his development trajectory, it could be two or three years before Howard isn't a liability against professional pass-rushers, much less a reliable blindside tackle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anything but a Linebacker

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

With the way the NFL is evolving, there is no justifying taking a linebacker with a top-five pick. The common argument in favor of selecting a linebacker this highly is that they are three-down players, but in today's league, that should be a given. Coverage is a necessity, not a negotiable.

LSU's Devin White probably won't transcend his positional value. 

In fairness, White is an impressive linebacker prospect with the speed, size and attitude to be a Pro Bowler. In two years as a starter at LSU, the 6'0", 237-pounder amassed 256 tackles, including 25.5 for a loss. White also batted away nine passes, one of which he intercepted. He has the right tools to fill in for Kwon Alexander, who signed with the 49ers.

The issue, however, is that few linebackers provide value equivalent to a defensive or offensive lineman. Bobby Wagner, Patrick Willis and Luke Kuechly are a few players in the past decade who come to mind as transcendent talents, but that bar is so high that no player should realistically be expected to meet it—not even a No. 5 pick.

When the Bucs were on the clock, defensive ends Burns and Allen, as well as defensive tackle Oliver, were all on the board. They were equal to or better prospects than White and play more valuable positions. Tampa Bay could have even selected offensive lineman Jonah Williams, who could've played guard early on before he transitioned to right tackle once Demar Dotson left—possibly after this season.

Tampa Bay's options were nearly endless, but the team chose a player at a low-impact position.

San Francisco 49ers: Address Cornerback Earlier

Sean Rayford/Associated Press

The San Francisco 49ers waited until the sixth round to select their only cornerback of the draft, Virginia's Tim Harris. Though 2019 may not have offered the strongest cornerback class, the 49ers' depth beyond Richard Sherman is one question mark after another.

Outside corners Ahkello Witherspoon, 24, and Tarvarius Moore, 22, have shown flashes in their young careers but should not have stopped the team from further investing in the position.

Likewise, though San Francisco will keep nickel cornerback Jimmie Ward for one more season, he has broken up one pass in the last two seasons and hasn't recorded an interception since 2016. He's missed half the possible 32 games in that span, but just one pass defended in 16 games is still poor.

The 49ers also signed Jason Verrett, who is good when healthy but has only played five contests in the past two seasons. They can't rely on him until he proves he can stay on the field.

As such, San Francisco should have considered a cornerback on Day 2. After the 49ers selected wide receiver Deebo Samuel 36th overall, cornerbacks Sean Bunting, Trayvon Mullen, Joejuan Williams, Greedy Williams and Lonnie Johnson were all drafted within the next 20 picks. In similar fashion, when the 49ers chose wide receiver Jalen Hurd at 67th overall early in the third round, cornerbacks David Long, Justin Layne and Jamel Dean came off the board by the end of the frame.

Had the 49ers split their resources over these two picks, their Day 2 haul would have been more palatable. Adding weapons for head coach Kyle Shanahan is nice, but they needed immediate help in the secondary and did not come away with any.

Detroit Lions: Draft a Linebacker for the Modern Era

Eugene Tanner/Associated Press

The Detroit Lions burned a top-50 pick on Hawaii linebacker Jahlani Tavai, who doesn't project as a capable coverage defender in 2019. That is a questionable choice, at best, with the way the league treats passing.

Tavai isn't a good athlete. He ran a 4.86-second 40-yard dash and a 4.41-second short shuttle at his pro day earlier in April. For reference, a 4.72-second 40-yard dash and a 4.29-second short shuttle are the averages among all linebackers since 1999, per MockDraftable. If you assume Tavai's numbers are inflated a smidgeon, as most pro-day numbers are, his measurables look even worse.

The lack of speed shows on film, as well. While he can move downhill to attack inside runs well, Tavai often lacks the range to work to runs outside the painted numbers and to flow comfortably in coverage. He only broke up five passes in four years at Hawaii, a testament to how little he was near the ball as a pass-defender.

Additionally, Sports Info Solutions and Pro Football Focus each ranked Tavai as the 24th-best linebacker prospect this year. The Lions, by contrast, made Tavai the fifth linebacker off the board, if including Josh Allen and Brian Burns, who project more as pass-rushers than traditional linebackers. Without the pass-rushers, only Devin White and Devin Bush preceded Tavai at the position.

This year's crop of linebackers was underwhelming, so it is understandable for a team to want to reach for one it liked, but Detroit did so in the most extreme fashion. With a Lions linebacker room already filled with middling cover defenders in Jarrad Davis, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Christian Jones and Devon Kennard, it is tough to see how Tavai solves any of their problems.

Chicago Bears: Target a More Valuable Positon

Eric Gay/Associated Press

The Chicago Bears' only top-100 pick this year was a third-round selection: No. 73.

The Bears had to make that pick count. With needs at wide receiver, cornerback and along the defensive line, Chicago could have used the selection at a position of value by filling any of those needs. Instead, Iowa State running back David Montgomery was the choice at No. 73, making him the immediate replacement for Jordan Howard.

Putting the player aside, selecting a running back with the team's only top pick was resource mismanagement. Running back is the least valuable offensive position, not only because passing is more efficient, but also because offensive linemen mean more to a team's rushing success.

A cursory glance at Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards compared to Football Perspective's rushing success rate by team, for example, shows that the most efficient rushing teams generated push at the line of scrimmage.

Montgomery should be good. His strong, balanced rushing style will fill Howard's shoes nicely. Still, the Bears missed an opportunity to bolster more impactful positions with players such as cornerbacks David Long and Justin Layne, pass-rushers Chase Winovich and Oshane Ximines, and wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Miles Boykin.

   

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