Lance King/Getty Images

Ranking Top 10 Shooting Guards in 2019 NBA Draft

Jonathan Wasserman

There won't be a shortage of shooting guards for the 2019 NBA draft.

At least nine will get looks in the first round, and a few could have star potential that warrants top-five consideration. 

Teams missed on a handful of 2s last year, specifically Landry Shamet (No. 26 overall) and Allonzo Trier (undrafted). And with the game becoming more perimeter-oriented, finding weapons at the off-guard slot has become a bigger priority. 

We ranked the top 10 shooting guards based on NBA potential for those who have made themselves eligible for the 2019 draft, though it's possible some will withdraw later in the process. 

10. John Konchar (Purdue Fort Wayne, Senior)

Cassy Athena/Getty Images

The eye test doesn't love John Konchar as much as the analytics test after he led all NCAA shooting guards in player efficiency rating, per RealGM, while sporting a 63.2 true shooting percentage.

A lack of explosiveness, length and experience playing major-conference opponents are the main drawbacks when assessing Konchar's NBA potential. However, for a 6'5" guard, his skill level and feel for the game could be enough to get by. 

Since 1992, only Konchar, Penny Hardaway and Evan Turner finished a college season averaging at least 19 points, eight rebounds and five assists, per Sports Reference.

The 23-year-old senior has made strides as a pick-and-roll scorer and playmaker. His three-ball has been consistent (career 41.6 percent), but he's never been a high-volume shooter (1.9 threes per 40 as a senior). In the half court, Konchar only totaled 32 made catch-and-shoot jumpers and 25 pull-ups in 33 games, averaging 35.2 minutes.

Konchar was most effective finishing around the basket (66.0 percent), showing bounce, timing and a nose for the rim off cuts (86 percentile) and teammates' missed shots (31 putbacks, 98th percentile).

There are concerns about his comfort level playing off the ball and whether he has enough wiggle to work on it, but they aren't alarming enough for a second-round pick, given Konchar's unique NCAA success, NBA size and maturity.

9. Ty Jerome (Virginia, Junior)

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Ty Jerome used March Madness to grow his personal brand on a national level, but he'd been a steady, driving force at both ends behind his team's success all year. 

Through six NCAA tournament wins, he averaged 16.5 points, 6.0 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 1.5 steals while shooting 40.5 percent from three. 

From an NBA perspective, Jerome lacks blow-by burst, raising doubt over his potential to work as a point guard or lead ball-handler. He wound up shooting just 15-of-52 out of isolation, showing limited ability to create separation or score one-on-one. 

At 6'5", he's better suited as a 2-guard, where his passing and three-ball seem likely to translate to complementary offense.

Jerome ranked in the 99th percentile out of spot-up situations, having converted 54.1 percent of his non-dribble jumpers and 14-of-29 on pull-ups/runners when forced to put the ball down. 

He led the ACC in assists as well, and though his off-the-dribble playmaking may not carry over, his passing IQ should (5.5 assists to 1.7 turnovers). 

A dangerous shot-maker, smart ball-mover and pesky defender, Jerome checks role-player boxes and could appeal to playoff teams in search of glue for their lineups/rotations.

8. Luguentz Dort (Arizona State, Freshman)

Amanda Loman/Associated Press

Strong and athletic at 6'4", 215 pounds, Luguentz Dort stands out first for his impressive physical profile, but he flashed enough scoring ability to average 16.1 points as a freshman.

More of a combo than a traditional shooting guard, he was used most as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, which allowed him to get downhill and attack and pass in space. Teammates shot 49.1 percent off his ball-screen dishes, and though not a natural facilitator, he's shown to be capable of making the setup assist. 

Finishing at the rim remains Dort's biggest challenge, as he struggled mightily throughout the season in the lane. He shot a brutal 3-of-17 on runners and 45.3 percent around the basket, usually elevating without a plan or the instincts to adjust through rim protection. 

He also shot a hard ball from the perimeter, making just 30.7 percent of his threes. On a positive note, he did flash the shot-making to hit 54 triples through 34 games, a sign that he is capable.

It's also easy to feel good about his defensive projection despite the occasional lapses in concentration. Physical, quick and competitive, Dort can dig in guarding the ball from baseline to baseline. 

He's still a long way away in terms of skill and feel, and after just turning 20 last week, he's old for a freshman. But there is some Marcus Smart in Dort, who can find ways to impact the game with pressure over finesse. 

7. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Virginia Tech, Sophomore)

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

A sophomore jump should lead to first-round interest in Nickeil Alexander-Walker, whose 6'5" size and combo guard versatility have always hinted at pro potential.

His draft case started to unravel over the final two months, though there is still enough to his shooting and playmaking to justify looks in the Nos. 20-30 range. 

With a soft, high-arching shot, he finished the season at 37.4 percent from three. It's also worth noting he shot 46.8 percent through Virginia's Tech 11-game non-conference schedule to start the season. From Jan. 1 on, he converted just 33.3 percent of his threes, so teams will want to look closely at his jumper during workouts. 

The same trend repeated with his scoring inside the arc, where he shot 60.9 percent during his first 11 non-conference games and 49.4 percent over the Hokies' final 23.

Alexander-Walker demonstrates solid footwork and agility. He lacks explosion, both in terms of blowing by (6-of-20 isolation drives, 52.4 percent at rim) and elevating vertically at the basket. 

The most positive development has been his passing improvement, as Alexander-Walker more than doubled his assist percentage to 24.6 from 10.6. He became a more confident and comfortable pick-and-roll facilitator, which could lead to minutes at point guard.

Moving forward, he'll need to add muscle for playing through contact, and becoming a more consistent shooting threat remains a must because of athletic/strength concerns.

6. Tyler Herro (Kentucky, Freshman)

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

NBA teams will wind up overlooking Tyler Herro's jump-shot percentages for his picturesque form, shot-making capability and the likelihood of his accuracy/consistency improving. 

The eye test detects an obvious shooter, regardless of what the 35.5 percent three-point mark suggests. His made jumpers were more convincing than the missed ones, and he's shown he can knock them down in every way—spotting up (37 makes), pulling up (49), off screens (25) or in transition (1.275 PPP, 87th percentile). 

A 93.5 percent free-throw mark is a promising indicator of touch, which he also used to make an impressive 14-of-26 runners, a key shot given how a lack of explosiveness and length could hinder his finishing at the rim (49.9 percent).

When given a rare chance, he even flashed some off-the-dribble ability as well, having generated 1.240 PPP on 25 possessions as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (98th percentile). 

Herro still doesn't project as an isolation or playmaking weapon, but he could be used like Landry Shamet or, potentially, JJ Redick.

5. Romeo Langford (Indiana, Freshman)

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Romeo Langford wasn't highly convincing during his one year at Indiana, but basic, achievable improvements could unlock top-10-type upside. 

At 6'6", 215 pounds, his physical profile screams NBA shooting guard. And though he hasn't mastered the skills of three-level scoring, he's developed the skill set that includes hard drives, mid-range shot-creation and perimeter shot-making ability.

His 34-of-125 three-point mark is the number that should lead to the most discussion. He took plenty of threes, a sign of confidence, but he didn't make many (1.2 per 40 minutes). An early-season wrist injury and a reported thumb surgery in April only cloud the scouting lens when assessing his shooting.

Otherwise, Langford converted 16-of-31 jumpers from 17 feet to the arc. He also graded in the 90th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler on 144 possessions, using ball screens mostly to score off pull-ups and takes to the basket. 

Despite lacking explosiveness, Langford showed an impressive feel for finishing around the basket (63.6 percent) from tough angles. He'll most certainly lean on slashing for offense early in his career.

There are concerns about his distance shooting, non-playmaking, defensive lapses and overall intensity. But once the draft's obvious talent begins to the dry up in the late-lottery range, it becomes worth gambling on Langford's scoring and potential to make improvements. 

4. Talen Horton-Tucker (Iowa State, Freshman)

Thomas Graning/Associated Press

Talen Horton-Tucker made enough "wow" plays to stretch the imagination and make it easier to buy a 238-pound guard and mediocre athlete. 

Despite weighing more than centers, measuring smaller (6'4") than 2-guards and possessing little explosiveness, Horton-Tucker has made an interesting case as an outlier. 

The youngest NCAA prospect eligible, not turning 19 years old until Thanksgiving, he averaged 11.8 points at Iowa State, surprising defenders (and viewers) with quickness and ball-handling skills to create shots. He flashed step-back shooting, nifty moves to get to the rim and coordinated finishes.

Horton-Tucker didn't shoot a high percentage from any level, finishing 30.8 percent from three, 28.3 percent combined on two-point jumpers and runners and 52.5 percent around the basket. He needs to improve his shot-making efficiency.

However, the 1.4 made threes per game and acrobatic layups weigh more than the misses and bad decisions when scouting for the long term. 

Otherwise, his defensive potential should be another selling point, given his strength, foot speed, length, 45 steals and 23 blocks. He'll likely struggle as a rookie, and he's not perceived as a high-upside star. But based on the skill he's already showcased, plus the enormous window he'll have to improve, Horton-Tucker has become an enticing out-of-the-box option in the first round. 

3. Kevin Porter Jr. (USC, Freshman)

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Few prospects will have a wider draft range than Kevin Porter Jr., whose exciting flash plays of scoring and minimal impact on winning have created a divide among scouts.

If we're defining talent by natural gifts, then Porter is top-10 caliber. At 6'6", 218 pounds, his mix of physical tools and athletic ability are tough to match at the position, and he's also skilled, specifically as a shot-creator and shot-maker.

Porter's bag is deep with various crossover, step-back and pull-up moves to separate into balanced jump shots. And he's appeared capable of knocking them all down with ease and fluidity. 

He also hit 2.4 threes per 40 minutes at a 41.2 percent clip. Although, Porter was a better overall shooter off the dribble (38.3 percent) than off the catch (33.3 percent), a potential issue early in his career since he'll continue to spend more time spotting up than handling the ball. A 52.2 percent free-throw mark could be another red flag, though he only had 46 attempts.

Porter wound up attempting just 7.5 shots per game, mostly coming off the bench for a USC team that finished 10th in a poor Pac-12 conference. He appeared and disappeared playing a complementary role behind veterans.

Between the positives and the question marks about his lack of production (9.5 points, 1.4 assists) and meaningful moments—plus the possible pass he deserves for being a tough fit with this particular group—it all leads to a foggy scouting lens and tough evaluation. 

He's the classic boom-or-bust prospect, but I've deemed the talent and skill worth gambling on. Both could unlock in a more suitable system with extra spacing, better teammates and years to develop. 

2. Jarrett Culver (Texas Tech, Sophomore)

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Jarrett Culver became worth talking about as a top-10 pick early in the season, particularly after scoring 25 points against Duke in December. He'd wind up guiding Texas Tech to the national title game, strengthening his credibility along the way as the team's No. 1 option. 

He'll benefit financially from his decision to return as a sophomore, though he may have lost some money during his final game. Virginia's De'Andre Hunter swallowed him up, helping to hold him to 5-of-22 while exposing concerns over his ability to create separation against strength and length.

One game won't fully negate the 18.5 points and 3.7 assists he averaged. Culver improved most on the ball after playing off it as a freshman. He generated .950 PPP out of isolation (77th percentile), appearing more elusive off the dribble and versatile finishing around the basket (56.1 percent).

He made strides as a pull-up shooter this season, making 48 dribble jumpers after hitting just seven total in 2017-18.

However, Culver took a step backward with his three-ball (30.4 percent). His shot takes time to get off, making it easier to contest despite his positional size (6'5") and length.

On the other hand, he took a leap forward with his playmaking, showing more passing IQ off ball screens and one-on-one moves.

Scouts question how much upside Culver possesses, given his skinny frame, questionable explosiveness and up-and-down jump shot. But he also comes off as a relatively safe pick in the Nos. 6-10 range thanks to his pro measurements, well-roundedness and year-to-year improvement.

1. RJ Barrett (Duke, Freshman)

Sean Rayford/Associated Press

RJ Barrett's 22.6 points per game should have earned him a top-three spot on most NBA draft boards. 

Even before arriving at Duke, he'd been under the scouting microscope for years while collecting a gold medal, MVPs, Player of the Year awards and a high school national championship. And at 18 years old, he led the ACC in scoring for the NCAA tournament's eventual No. 1 overall seed. 

Some question marks popped up along the way, but there is a level of certainty tied to his physical profile, lengthy track record, NCAA production and competitiveness.

With impressive footwork and a nose for the rim, Barrett finished tied for No. 7 in the country in transition points (6.1 per game). He was less effective in the half court (1.081 PPP, 51st percentile), where he'll need to sharpen his shot-creating methods (.829 PPP isolation, 59th percentile) and improve his shooting consistency (30.8 percent 3PT). 

Barrett also had mixed results finishing around the basket (52.5 percent), lacking vertical explosion and touch. Yet he still managed to generate 202 points there in the half court, showing the ability to slice through defenses and improvise with off-balance layups or awkward runners.

He also drilled 73 three-pointers and a respectable 38.0 percent of his 92 pull-ups. Despite not being labeled a shooter, he's a shot-making threat when given room to step in.

Barrett did turn some scouts off with a tendency to ignore teammates and force shots. He developed tunnel vision, sometimes late in close games. On the other hand, he averaged 4.3 assists, looking competent as a setup passer off ball screens, particularly dishing to roll men (1.382 PPP) and cutters (1.636 PPP).

He figures to immediately produce wherever he goes, based on his scoring success in every setting he's played, plus the fact that he'll have plenty of size (6'7") and length for a pro 2-guard. His developing playmaking sets him apart from wings like Andrew Wiggins, who some have feared as a comparison. 

For lottery teams, Barrett will be perceived as a low-risk, guaranteed contributor with star potential. Whether he busts through his ceiling will come down to the adjustments he makes as a one-on-one player and the improvements he makes shooting from distance. 

       

Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports, Sports-Reference.com

   

Read 20 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)