NCAA Championship 2019: Updated Title Chances Going into Final Four

Four teams remain in the 2019 NCAA men's basketball tournament, and we've determined the likelihood of each team winning it all in Minneapolis next weekend.

By the time we get to the Final Four, the bracket usually features a clear favorite, an obvious long shot or both. Last year, Villanova was the obvious pick and Loyola-Chicago the severe underdog. The year before that, North Carolina was the semi-clear favorite and South Carolina the unlikeliest champion. Go back through the past 10 tournaments, and you'll find eight or nine similar situations.

But this year, the field is as wide open as ever. It hasn't felt like this much of a crapshoot since the 2008 Final Four when all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the national semifinals.

No. 5 Auburn may look like the underdog, but it has won 12 straight games and already toppled a trio of blue bloods. No. 1 Virginia may look like the favorite, but you remember UMBC, right? Plus, the Cavaliers have had an unusually difficult time defending the three-point arc as of late.

Tempting as it was to just give all four teams a 25 percent chance of winning it all, we do have a hierarchy heading into the final few days of another amazing college hoops season. The separation between all four teams isn't much, though, as any of the eight possible outcomes from these final three games is plausible.

Title Chances: 20 percent

The Road Ahead

After going through Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky, Auburn shouldn't be scared by anything. 

However, the Tigers have the toughest draw of the remaining teams, as they have to deal with the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday. Not only is that the best remaining team, but it's a tough matchup for Auburn's style. The Cavaliers rarely commit turnovers, and their three-point field-goal defense, per KenPom.com, ranks third in the nation—though it admittedly hasn't been anywhere near that good thus far in the tournament. 

Reason to Buy

Auburn has won 12 consecutive games, is red hot from three-point range, forces more turnovers than any other team in the country and blocks a whole heck of a lot of shots, too. In KenPom history, we have never seen this type of combination before. The closest comp is either 2008-09 Louisville or 2016-17 Syracuse, neither of which was as proficient in all three categories.

Preparing for this team is absurdly difficult, especially on a short turnaround. If Auburn is able to beat Virginia, you have to like its odds of finishing the job 48 hours later against either Michigan State or Texas Tech.

Reason to Sell

Chuma Okeke's torn ACL is a much bigger deal than you may have interpreted from Auburn's win over Kentucky on Sunday.

Among the weird phenomena in college basketball is the fact that teams tend to rally behind a major injury for one game before coming back to reality and proving why that injury was perceived as such a big deal in the first place. Auburn beat its SEC rival in its first game without Okeke, but now it must adjust to life without its leader in rebounds, steals and blocks.

Okeke was their jack-of-all-trades, and it's going to be more than a little bit difficult to beat an outfit like Virginia without him. Also, this team was dreadful on the defensive glass for the majority of the season, and Okeke's absence could make that an even bigger problem.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

It forces turnovers at its usual rate while Jared Harper finally starts hitting shots.

Harper is 4-of-18 from three-point range over the last three games, and that won't cut it this weekend. With Okeke out, he is too important to Auburn's success to keep shooting like that, considering he takes about a dozen shots per game. But if he gets hot and Bryce Brown stays smoldering (13-of-24 from three in his last three appearances), the Tigers can topple the Cavaliers and win it all two days later.

Title Chances: 22 percent

The Road Ahead

Texas Tech's last two games were against one of the best defenses in the country (Michigan) and one of the best offenses in the country (Gonzaga). Now, the Red Raiders need to get past a Michigan State Spartans team that meets both of those descriptions before a possible championship showdown with a Virginia Cavaliers squad that is even better in both departments.

It would be incredible if they win this thing by going through four of the top six on KenPom, considering they hadn't beaten a top-15 team until this past Thursday.

Reason to Buy

This defense is exceptional.

A few minor lapses emerged during the Big 12 gauntlet, but Texas Tech has held 28 of 36 opponents below one point per possession, including all four of its tournament foes. Teams are shooting 23.4 percent from three-point range against a Red Raiders squad averaging 8.0 steals and 5.5 blocks in the past two weeks. The inside presences of Tariq Owens and Norense Odiase make this group tough as nails.

Reason to Sell

Texas Tech's offense isn't terrible by national standards, but it is the worst of the remaining teams. By far.

Virginia, Michigan State and Auburn all rank in the top six for adjusted offensive efficiency; Texas Tech is No. 30. Jarrett Culver is great and Davide Moretti can make it rain from deep, but not many other options exist. The Red Raiders' fifth-leading scorer (Brandone Francis) only shoots 35.6 percent from the field.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Culver goes into hero mode.

Now that Carsen Edwards and Zion Williamson have bowed out in the Elite Eight, Culver has as many games this season with more than 30 points as every other remaining player in the field combined. He had 29 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in the opener against Northern Kentucky, and Texas Tech will be almost impossible to eliminate if he has two more performances like that.

Title Chances: 27 percent

The Road Ahead

Michigan State needs to deal with the shot-blocking, turnover-forcing, tough-to-score-against defense of Texas Tech in the Final Four, but the Elite Eight win over the Duke Blue Devils was proof the Spartans can win that type of battle. It's going to be an interesting matchup between two of the best interior defenses in the country, with the winner likely to endure a similar war against Virginia in the title game.

Reason to Buy

The Spartans have won 14 of their last 15 games, and all but two of those victories came against NCAA tournament teams. They beat Wisconsin and Ohio State twice each, toppled Michigan thrice and knocked off Duke on Sunday. These guys are dripping with confidence, as the inside-outside duo of Xavier Tillman and Cassius Winston has become an unstoppable force. The Spartans also led the nation in assist rate, and that ball movement will be key against the Texas Tech defense.

Reason to Sell

Michigan State was plus-13 in turnover margin in Washington, D.C., but that was a problem for the Spartans all season long. During the 17 games before the Sweet 16, they averaged 12.5 turnovers and only forced 9.0. Texas Tech (plus-4.2) and Auburn (plus-6.0) have had excellent turnover margins during the tournament, and Virginia commits the nation's fewest turnovers per game (8.97).

It's hard to believe that won't be an issue in Minneapolis.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Unlikely heroes keep emerging.

Freshmen Aaron Henry and Gabe Brown were the heroes of the Sweet 16 win over LSU. Tillman and Kenny Goins were the stars against Duke. We came into this season assuming Michigan State would be great because of Winston, Nick Ward and Joshua Langford—with more than the occasional three from Matt McQuaid, too.

But with Langford out since December, Ward hurting and McQuaid struggling, the Spartans have continued to thrive anyway. This team has been so resilient, and it isn't about to stop now.

Title Chances: 31 percent

The Road Ahead

The only remaining No. 1 seed will be matched up with the closest thing to a Cinderella story in this year's tournament, and that matchup with Auburn makes for an intriguing contrast in styles. Both parties will attempt many threes, but the game figures to be decided by the battle between Auburn's turnover-forcing defense and Virginia's usually excellent ball security.

Reason to Buy

This is the most efficient team in the nation and one of the most efficient in KenPom history. The Cavaliers have had a couple of close scares in the tournament, but they still have an adjusted efficiency margin of plus-34.24. Only 2007-08 Kansas (plus-35.21) and 2014-15 Kentucky (plus-36.91) have posted higher marks.

To be fair, Kansas needed the Mario Chalmers miracle three to win the '08 title, and previously undefeated Kentucky lost to Wisconsin in the '15 Final Four, so that might not do Virginia much good. But the Cavaliers are excellent on both ends of the floor and should be slightly favored in the title game regardless of opponent.

Reason to Sell

All year long, Virginia's primary cause for concern was its lack of tournament success over the past seven years.

But now that the Cavaliers are into the Final Four, what's the new reason to worry? Three-point defense has been a major problem thus far in the tournament run. All four opponents have shot at least 36 percent from distance, and the Wahoos have allowed 10.0 triples per game. With Auburn's three-point assault on deck, that's more than a little troubling.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Kyle Guy keeps shooting like he did in the second half against Purdue.

It's hard to believe Virginia was able to get through the first three rounds while opponents shot so atypically well from three-point range and Guy was unable to buy a bucket. However, the Cavaliers could just about cruise to a title if the junior guard is hitting shots and opponents regress to Virginia's season average—28.7 percent allowed on three-point attempts.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.