Daniel R. Patmore/Associated Press

NCAA Bracket Predictions 2019: Sleeper Teams Destined for Deep Runs

Joel Reuter

The 2019 NCAA tournament bracket is out, which means it’s time for every basketball fan to become an expert prognosticator.

To aid with that, we've highlighted five sleeper teams that are capable of busting brackets. The focus was on mid-major schools with low seeds. 

Will one of these schools be this year’s Loyola-Chicago?

A full breakdown of each team's resume with relevant notes on performance to date and NCAA tournament outlook was provided to make each team's case.

Editor’s note: Information in this piece has been updated to reflect seeding and region placement for each team.

Belmont Bruins (East Regional, No. 11 Seed)

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Record: 25-5, 16-2 in Ohio Valley

NET: 47, RPI: 42, SOS: 196, NCSOS: 74

Q1: 2-2, Q2: 3-1, Q3: 3-2, Q4: 17-0

The Bruins put their fate in the committee's hands with a loss to Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament title game but still managed to make the cut.

The Bruins looked like the best mid-major team on the bubbleahead of the likes of Lipscomb, Furman and UNC Greensboro—so their inclusion in the field is a welcome sight, as they have enough offensive firepower to make a run.

Led by seniors Dylan Windler (21.4 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 43.0 3PT%) and Kevin McClain (16.3 PPG), the Bruins offense ranks 20th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency and averages an impressive 87.4 points per game.

The health of center Nick Muszynski (14.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.2 BPG) is the X-factor here. The 6'10" freshman left in the second half of the team's semifinal game against Austin Peay with an ankle injury and didn't play in the championship game.

If he's healthy, this team can play with anyone.

Liberty Flames (East Regional, No. 12 Seed)

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Record: 28-6, 14-2 in Atlantic Sun

NET: 58, RPI: 84, SOS: 289, NCSOS: 263

Q1: 2-0, Q2: 1-3, Q3: 4-3, Q4: 18-0

An Atlantic Sun team making a run in the NCAA tournament would not exactly be uncharted territory.

Dunk City, anyone?

That said, as a No. 12 seed, this Liberty squad will be facing long odds.

The offensive efficiency of their balanced attack is the Flames' ticket to making things hard on a top-tier team. They shoot an impressive 49.1 percent from the floor (12th in NCAA) and go as many as nine deep in their rotation, with six players averaging at least seven points.

The biggest reason for pause is that 290th-ranked strength of schedule and 267th-ranked nonconference strength of schedule. In other words, they haven't been tested.

The next game they play will be against the best team they've faced all season by a wide margin.

With that in mind, there's a good chance we'll know within the first five minutes whether the Flames are a serious threat to make a run or another automatic-bid afterthought.

More so than most winners of one-bid leagues, it looks like they could make some noise.

Murray State Racers (West Regional, No. 12 Seed)

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Record: 27-4, 16-2 in Ohio Valley

NET: 44, RPI: 37, SOS: 211, NCSOS: 154

Q1: 1-2, Q2: 1-2, Q3: 4-0, Q4: 19-0

Ja Morant is the kind of player who can put a team on his back.

The future NBA lottery pick proved as much in the Ohio Valley tournament when he poured in 36 points against Belmont in the title game to help Murray State snag the automatic bid.

Murray State probably wouldn't have made the tournament without the auto bid.

The Racers rank 40th in KenPom's offensive efficiency, as they shoot 49.6 percent from the floor (7th in NCAA) and average 83.3 points per game (12th in NCAA).

Morant leads the way with 24.6 points and 10.0 assists per contest, but he doesn't have to do it alone. Leroy Buchanan (13.0 PPG), Tevin Brown (11.7 PPG) and Darnell Cowart (10.4 PPG) also average in double figures.

The issue here, as is the case with most mid-major teams, is a lack of a resume.

The title game win over Belmont was their only "quality" win of the season, and while they don't have any bad losses, they haven't been tested.

Regardless, the presence of Morant alone is reason enough for Murray State to make it beyond the opening weekend as a No. 12 seed.

New Mexico State Aggies (Midwest Regional, No. 12 Seed)

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

Record: 30-4, 15-1 in WAC

NET: 40, RPI: 36, SOS: 228, NCSOS: 228

Q1: 0-1, Q2: 3-1, Q3: 9-2, Q4: 16-0

Only the Wofford Terriers (20) have a longer winning streak than the current 19-game run that New Mexico State is on entering the NCAA tournament.

The Aggies were a No. 12 seed last year and they've been part of the field seven times in the last eight years, so this is not your run-of-the-mill mid-major team.

While last year's team had a future NBA player in Zach Lofton, this year's group has already won two more games and looks to be better built for the NCAA tournament.

Despite losing their leading scorer and star player, their KenPom-adjusted offensive efficiency has jumped up from 116th to 42nd, and they've still stuck to their roots as a solid defensive squad.

While no one averages over 12 points per game, they can go as many as 11 deep, which should help them keep up with an athletically superior team.

Tournament experience and momentum can't be overlooked as impactful intangibles with this group.

Utah State Aggies (Midwest Regional, No. 8 Seed)

Sam Wasson/Getty Images

Record: 28-6, 15-3 in Mountain West

NET: 29, RPI: 28, SOS: 96, NCSOS: 20

Q1: 3-2, Q2: 2-3, Q3: 9-1, Q4: 13-0

With three Quad 1 wins and a perfect 21-0 record in Quadrant 3 and 4 games against teams outside the top 80 in the NET, Utah State did what was necessary to emerge from the shadow of Nevada and make the Mountain West a legitimate two-bid league, even if they hadn't already punched their ticket by winning the conference tournament.

Aside from splitting the season series with the Wolfpack, the Aggies also scored an excellent neutral-site win over Saint Mary's. Even in losses to Houston and Arizona State, they kept things close and were by no means outmatched.

Junior guard Sam Merrill (21.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 4.2 APG, 37.8 3PT%) won Mountain West Player of the Year honors, and he leads an offense that averages 79.2 points per game.

Center Neemias Queta (11.9 PPG, 8.9 RPG) is the only other player who averages in double figures, so the Aggies lean heavily on Merrill.

That said, he's been up to the task of late, averaging 24.9 points in his last 11 games, including a 38-point outburst against Colorado State in the regular-season finale.

As long as the Aggies can hold their own defensively, they're more than capable of a Sweet 16 run or more.

     

All stats courtesy of Sports Reference. NET information comes via WarrenNolan.com and accurate through Saturday. KenPom rankings also accurate through Saturday.

   

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