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Ranking the Futures of Every Projected 2019 NBA Lottery Team

Zach Buckley

A handful of fortunate NBA franchises will spend the next month not only preparing for the playoffs, but also bracing for lengthy runs.

For the rest of the Association, though, this is probably a time better spent planning for the future.

That's a far more enjoyable task for some than others, depending on the presence of established (or even rising) stars, the ability to acquire them or, ideally, both.

We'll make like the bottom-feeders here and shift our focus to the future by examining the long-term possibilities of the 14 teams we project to land in the lottery. Primarily, we're analyzing on-hand talent, the production and potential of those players, salary-cap situations and draft assets.

These forecasts should tell you whether you should carry raincoats or sunglasses into your favorite team's future.

14. Charlotte Hornets

Nell Redmond/Associated Press

Apologies for bumming out Buzz City, but the nicest thing to say about the Hornets' future might be that they haven't traded away any future first-round picks.

All conceivable offseason paths seemingly send them on a summer vacation to nowhere.

Break the bank to keep Kemba Walker, and you're probably paying the luxury tax for a lottery team. Let him walk, and you're losing arguably the most popular player in franchise history. Splurge on him and Jeremy Lamb, and you might be footing one of basketball's biggest payrolls. Lose both Lamb and Walker, and you aren't returning anyone who averaged even 11 points per game.

If the Hornets pinch pennies this summer, they should finally have some cap space in 2020. Of course, this has never been a free-agent destination, and a Walker departure would leave them without an All-Star recruiter to help lure top talent.

Cementing Charlotte into the bottom spot? Its most exciting prospects are Malik Monk and Miles Bridges. The former is a career 37.4 percent shooter. The latter owns rookie averages of 6.8 points and 3.6 rebounds.

If these are the building blocks, the Hornets might be constructing a house of cards.

13. Cleveland Cavaliers

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

A post-LeBron James rebuild was always unavoidable in Northeast Ohio, and the Cavs have clearly accepted that fate. Through four in-season trades, they restocked their cupboards with nine incoming draft picks, including a pair of future firsts.

But before heading down reclamation road, Cleveland first gave oft-injured, 30-year-old Kevin Love a four-year, $120 million extension. That rate not only looks inflated given his health history and defensive deficiencies, but it could also lead the Cavs to a couple of unnecessary wins. He's still capable of scoring and/or rebounding at an All-Star rate.

If the idea was to lean on Love's leadership then flip him for more rebuilding tools, the plan was doomed from the start.

"You're not getting an asset for him under any circumstances," a Western Conference executive told Bleacher Report's Ken Berger earlier this season.

Speaking of assets, the in-house collection underwhelms from every angle. Collin Sexton is interesting, but his 41.1 field-goal percentage and 15.6 assist percentage highlight his limitations. Cedi Osman works as a complementary piece, but probably nothing more. In other words, the Cavs could be at least a couple drafts away from forming their next foundation.

12. Memphis Grizzlies

Brandon Dill/Associated Press

It's a minor miracle Memphis avoided the bottom two spots in our rankings.

Despite having lottery talent, this team could get uncomfortably close to the luxury tax next season—the last on Chandler Parsons' onerous deal. What's worse, this group has an outgoing first-rounder hanging over its head. While the pick owed to the Boston Celtics has top-eight protection this year and top-six coverage the next, it'll be unprotected in 2021 if it hasn't already conveyed.

Who's to say the Grizzlies won't be terrible in 2020-21?

But Memphis has at least uncovered a franchise anchor in 19-year-old Jaren Jackson Jr., who's almost solely responsible for this ranking. The toughest task in rebuilding is adding stars, but the Grizzlies already seem to have found one. Jackson's per-36-minute averages include 19.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 1.2 triples and 1.2 steals; that's unprecedented production for an NBA freshman.

It would help if Jackson had more high-ceiling talent around him, but maybe Memphis could create a path to some this offseason. After shipping out Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies could cut the cord on the grit-and-grind era for good with a trade of Mike Conley, whose name bounced around plenty near the trade deadline.

11. New Orleans Pelicans

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

If we were ranking the least comfortable near futures, the Pelicans would have a stranglehold on the top spot.

Having an unhappy Anthony Davis around as a part-time player is cringeworthy enough, but actually trading him is the tricky part. It's hard enough for anyone to set an appropriate asking price on an in-prime, top-five talent. But when the task falls on either an interim general manager (Danny Ferry) or a new-to-the-job replacement, the difficulty could grow exponentially.

All that said, the Pelicans could still be looking at a king's ransom whenever they pull the trigger. Maybe that leads them to a prospect like Jayson Tatum, a pile of future draft picks or a combination of the two. The future could brighten pretty quickly.

Of course, those newcomers will be joining a team that's almost starting from scratch. Other than Davis, only Jrue Holiday, Solomon Hill and E'Twaun Moore have guaranteed contracts beyond this season. Holiday is a two-way force, but he could find himself on an island once Davis departs.

10. Washington Wizards

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Wizards get high marks for rostering Bradley Beal, who's the rare (relatively) affordable All-Star.

Still just 25 years old, he continues to elevate his ceiling through growth as a scorer, distributor and shot-creator. Moved into the driver's seat by John Wall's season-ending injury, Beal has become one of only seven players averaging at least 25 points, five assists and five rebounds.

But Washington's stock starts tumbling once you get past Beal. 

The biggest worry is Wall. Injuries had previously been a problem, but he's never gone through something like this. He had season-ending heel surgery in January, then ruptured his Achilles tendon at home in February. Adding insult to injury, he hasn't even started his four-year, $170 million extension, which kicks in next year.

Outside of the backcourt, only Ian Mahinmi and Troy Brown Jr. have guaranteed contracts for 2019-20, while Dwight Howard holds a $5.6 million player option. The deadline deal that sent Otto Porter Jr. to the Chicago Bulls improved the team's financial outlook, but it's possible some of those savings will get pumped into keeping veterans Trevor Ariza and Jeff Green, a source told NBC Sports' Ben Standig.

9. Miami Heat

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Dwyane Wade's last dance with the Heat won't help them escape the NBA's midsection. Judging by what's coming back to this roster, neither will the first season of the post-Wade era.

Miami has been starving for star power in recent years, sending just two representatives to the All-Star Game over the past three seasons—one as an injury replacement (Goran Dragic), the other on a special invitation from the commissioner (Wade). While Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo have all taken steps forward this season, none has consistently displayed elite potential.

This group has too much talent to bottom out, and that type of rebuild doesn't interest team president Pat Riley anyway. The Heat have been loose with their draft picks during his tenure, hence the reason they're out a future first and four of their next five second-rounders.

But if the draft doesn't deliver a star, it's hard to tell which route this franchise can take. There's no real spending money until 2020, and trade chips come few and far between, given how many bloated contracts are on the books.

8. New York Knicks

Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images

This summer will determine whether this ranking is way too high or laughably low. For now, that means it should be just right.

The 'Bockers are almost a blank canvas. The Kristaps Porzingis deadline deal erased all long-term commitments. Their highest guaranteed salary for next season is Frank Ntilikina's $4.9 million. No dream is too big for the Knicks right now. As Bleacher Report's Dan Favale broke down, it's not impossible to find a scenario in which Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis all call Madison Square Garden home next season.

Is it likely? Not in the least. But when the Knicks have all their built-in market advantages, plus loads of cap room and a decent shot at securing the No. 1 pick, that's an army of assets most clubs would struggle to match.

Of course, there's also an underground floor to consider.

Cap space might not mean Irving and/or Durant. Maybe it's Kemba Walker and Khris Middleton. Maybe it's no one. Given the revamped lottery odds, the Knicks might wind up drafting fourth or fifth. So, instead of Zion Williamson (and a potential path to Davis), maybe the draft haul is only Cam Reddish or Jarrett Culver.

New York already has some youth in place, although its potential is in flux. While Mitchell Robinson looks ahead of schedule and Allonzo Trier has been a tremendous surprise, Kevin Knox looks predictably raw. Moreover, Dennis Smith Jr. is far from a sure thing, and Ntilikina's outlook is cloudy at best.

7. Phoenix Suns

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This isn't a particularly confident ranking.

Frankly, it requires a leap of faith for a franchise that's done little to deserve one. The Phoenix Suns are creeping toward the close of a fourth consecutive season with a sub-.300 winning percentage. They've had four different coaches during that stretch and could consider another change after this season. There's also a troubling trend of dysfunction within the organization.

But this is a players' league, and the Suns have some of the best up-and-comers in the business.

Devin Booker is 22 years old and already an explosive scorer (25.1 points per game). Phoenix's mishandling of the point guard spot also forced him to grow as a shot-creator, and he's responded with a career-best 6.7 assists per contest. Deandre Ayton, 20, should be a first-team All-Rookie lock and just the third NBA freshman to average 16 points and 10 rebounds during the 2000s.

That's probably it for potential stars, but players like TJ Warren, Josh Jackson, Mikal Bridges and (if he's re-signed) Kelly Oubre Jr. are all capable of handling complementary roles. And with this core still set to grow through the Suns' own first-rounders and an incoming selection from the Milwaukee Bucks, the talent base will continue to expand.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Karl-Anthony Towns might be the best player discussed so far, especially when accounting for the fact he's still just 23 years old.

He's about to average at least 21 points and 12 rebounds for the third time in four seasons. Only 15 players throughout NBA history have done so more frequently. Add a nightly triple to the mix, and it's Towns with three such seasons and four total for every other player past and present. This isn't just volume splashing, either. Since the start of 2016-17, his 39.8 three-point percentage is 14th highest among players with 300-plus makes.

Coming out of the All-Star break, Towns has launched himself into the stratosphere. Over his past seven outings, he's averaged 35.1 points, 14.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists while shooting 59.7 percent from the field and 48.9 percent from range.

"It's just greatness," Timberwolves rookie Josh Okogie said, per The Athletic's Jon Krawczynski. "We're all witnessing it."

But Minnesota's challenge is finding someone else who can ascend alongside Towns. Andrew Wiggins is a volume scorer paid like a superstar. The rest of the roster is comprised of aging vets or youngsters who figure to top out as role players.

Unless this front office aces a mid-first-round selection, it's tough to tell how Towns will get the help he needs.

5. Chicago Bulls

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Rather than put all their eggs in the free-agency basket, the Chicago Bulls broke open their piggy banks early.

First, they matched Zach LaVine's four-year, $78 million offer sheet from the Sacramento Kings last offseason. Next, they traded for Otto Porter Jr. at the 2019 deadline, taking on the $27.3 million owed next season and his $28.5 million player option for 2020-21.

Some might argue about whether LaVine and Porter should be a roughly $46 million combination. But in Chicago, it might work. Since other franchise pillars Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. have multiple years left on their rookie deals, the money mostly balances out. The Bulls should still have about $20 million to spend this summer.

They already appear to have a solid base around which they can build. While Carter suffered a thumb injury before Porter arrived, the latter has had the chance to build some chemistry with LaVine and Markkanen. That trio has produced an eye-opening 6.6 net rating across 288 shared minutes.

Especially if Chicago adds another top-five pick this summer, it could be assembling a formidable 25-and-under collection.

4. Sacramento Kings

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What a difference five months can make.

Had these rankings run in October, the Sacramento Kings surely would have held one of the lowest spots. They were a 55-loss mess just last season, and no one had even hinted at breakout potential. Zach Randolph, who hasn't logged a second this year and was traded then waived in February, paced that group with 14.5 points per game.

But now, the Kings are making a case for the NBA to create a Most Improved Team award.

Both Buddy Hield and De'Aaron Fox found ways to fast-forward their development. The former is suddenly a top-30 scorer and top-five three-point shooter. The latter is one of only 10 players averaging 17 points and seven assists. The frontcourt combo of Marvin Bagley III and Harry Giles is loaded with promise. Bogdan Bogdanovic's game functions like connective tissue. Harrison Barnes is the jumbo forward this roster needed.

The Kings have the wiggle room to buy this summer, although they'll have to wait and see if this rapidly improving roster is what finally draws free agents to Sacramento. They do get slightly dinged for not owning their upcoming first-round pick, but that at least frees the franchise to make an all-out push for the postseason.

3. Atlanta Hawks

Rocky Widner/Getty Images

The Atlanta Hawks' rebranding as the Golden State Warriors East is ahead of schedule.

As unfair as those Stephen Curry comparisons may have seemed, Trae Young's explosive post-All-Star stretch shows why they were made. The 20-year-old sharpshooter has rocketed up to 26.1 points and 9.0 assists per game since intermission while hitting 2.9 triples per night at a 41.4 percent clip.

Then, there's fellow freshman Kevin Huerter doing a strikingly good impression of Curry's sibling-in-splash, Klay Thompson. Since snagging a full-time starting gig in late November, Huerter has tallied 11.2 points and 2.1 threes per game while shooting 39.6 percent from distance. For comparison, the freshman version of Thompson went for 12.5 points and 1.7 long-range bombs while clearing 41.4 percent outside.

John Collins may not fit the Warriors' mold, but the second-year big man might be the best player about whom no one talks. He's one of just nine contributors averaging at least 19 points and nine rebounds, and his jump as a three-point shooter (0.9 threes per night on a 37.7 percent clip) shows there's plenty of helium left in his upside.

It's tough to say how many other keepers are on the roster, although Taurean Prince and Omari Spellman both offer Golden State-style versatility at both ends. The financial books are mostly clean, save for Kent Bazemore's $19.3 million player option and Miles Plumlee's $12.5 million salary for next season. The Hawks could also collect as many as three additional first-rounders in the coming years.

2. Dallas Mavericks

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While it might be premature to declare Luka Doncic this season's Rookie of the Year, the lead he's built is nonetheless impressive given the strength of this freshman class.

The 20-year-old is already keeping historic company. If the campaign closed today, he'd join Hall of Famer Oscar Robertson as the only two rookies to average 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists. He's even blown optimistic projections about his NBA-ready abilities out of the water.

The Dallas Mavericks, though, didn't stop at one unicorn. They rolled the dice on a second ahead of the deadline, landing 7'3" shot-blocker and three-point sniper Kristaps Porzingis. Sure, he's coming off an ACL tear and won't play this season, but he was doing previously unseen stuff before going down.

Pairing Doncic and Porzingis together gives Dallas its long-awaited blueprint for the post-Dirk Nowitzki era, and the ceiling is already high enough to turn that plan into a title.

"Dallas now has two players under the age of 25 who could be the best two players on a championship team," The Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks wrote. "Just about every team in the league would kill for that opportunity."

The Mavs also created major spending money for this summer, and a fortunate bounce of a few ping-pong balls could keep their top-five-protected pick away from the Hawks. Even while factoring in the risks with Porzingis, who can become a restricted free agent this offseason, Dallas' future looks blindingly bright.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

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Wait, wait, wait. Hasn't the Los Angeles Lakers' first season with LeBron James been an unmitigated disaster?

You could call it that, sure. But don't forget we're talking about James' first season in Hollywood. He's signed on for at least two more and, other than shouldering some uncharacteristic blows from the injury bug, he still often looks like the league's most dominant force.

That's where the Lakers' foundation starts. It might be enough on its own to warrant our top spot.

But there's more to consider here.

Former No. 2 pick Brandon Ingram was in the midst of a breakout before deep venous thrombosis prematurely ended his third season. Kyle Kuzma, last year's diamond in the rough, has pushed nearly all of his counting categories forward. Lonzo Ball continued flooding stat sheets with per-36-minute marks of 11.8 points, 6.5 assists and 6.3 rebounds before an ankle injury shut him down.

Kuzma is 23 years old; Ball and Ingram are 21. Whether they're trade chips or building blocks, they remain valuable assets.

If the Lakers are going to make a championship run with James, they'll need more win-now help. But given their financial flexibility, young talent and potential top-10 pick this summer, they have the means to snag a star (or more) for the second straight offseason.

              

Statistics used courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com and current heading into games March 12. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.

   

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