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10 Bold Predictions for 2019 NBA All-Star Weekend

Dan Favale

NBA All-Star Weekend has no room for the tightly wound and steadfastly self-important. It is an event built around star power, velvet-rope parties, big-name scuttlebutt, loosey-goosey competition and viral moments.

Really, in sum, the league's February shindig serves as our annual reminder that, above all, basketball should hardly ever be taken too seriously.

Let's lean into that spirit of fun-having as the Association makes its way to Charlotte, North Carolina.

Certain All-Star Weekend predictions will be more over the top than others. All of them are rooted in actual possibility. We're not forecasting a one-handed, blindfolded, 900-degree jam from the three-point line for John Collins in the dunk contest. Nor are we revising Lawler's Law to read "First team to 200 points maybe-possibly wins" for Sunday's All-Star exhibition itself.

We are, however, striving to exist outside the box.

Save the run-of-the-mill predictions for year-end award races and NBA Finals outcomes. This space is meant for dark-horse winners, out-there feats, broken records and tongue-in-cheek logic.

     

Team USA Wins Rising Stars Challenge

Glenn James/Getty Images

Predicting a victory for Team USA in Friday's Rising Stars Challenge doesn't seem all that bold on the surface. But look at Team World's roster.

Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic and not-really-a-sophomore Ben Simmons...oh my. Plus, last year's MVP Bogdan Bogdanovic and Lauri Markkanen. And Rodions Kurucs. And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The list goes on—OG Anunoby!—because holy hot damn is this squad scary.

Team World, while made up of some new faces, is working off a 155-124 deconstruction of Team USA in 2018. They're now 3-1 since the NBA pivoted to this Rising Stars format in 2015. They have the upper hand, both historically and on paper.

But, frankly, Team USA is being slept on. They are more than their known commodities. De'Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum are not without help. 

Click to expand figure....

Jarrett Allen, Marvin Bagley III, John Collins, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Trae Young have pieced together solid seasons. Kyle Kuzma still gets buckets. Kevin Knox has a sometimes-wicked floater.

Together, they arm Team USA with the depth necessary to overthrow what initially looks like a far more talented Team World.

   

Luka Will NOT Win Skills Challenge

Garrett Ellwood/Getty Images

Anyone who puts down contested step-back threes like layups and flings one-handed cross-court passes in his sleep should have no trouble navigating Saturday night's Skills Challenge obstacle course, right?

Wrong!

From what I can tell, no one is flat-out claiming Luka Doncic is unbeatable in this setting. But they might as well be. Either he or De'Aaron Fox are the natural favorites for this exercise.

I am here to dutifully call bull.

Doncic is going to get tripped up. I'm not sure where or how. He will airball his above-the-break three-point attempt because he's too open. Or he'll throw an errant pass into the stands because he's using two hands. 

Something will go wrong...is what I've decided. Doncic is playing through a charmed rookie season. He's due for some hardship, however arbitrary.

Besides, two of the past three Skills Challenge winners have been bigs: Karl-Anthony Towns (2016) and Kristaps Porzingis (2017). So basically, this is me refinancing my home and placing all of that money on Nikola Jokic.

   

Lumberjack Joe Wins 3-Point Contest

Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images

Joe Harris has his work cut out for him if he's going to help me look like less of a fool.

Seth Curry and Stephen Curry are playing in front of their hometown crowd. Steph is also Steph. Buddy Hield is addicted to not missing wide-open threes. Damian Lillard is just plain terrifying. Never say "never" in the same breath as Dirk Nowitzki.

I'm taking Harris anyway, without hesitation or apology. His in-game shot selection has prepared him for this moment—this chance to take down the field.

Three of the fives racks in the Three-Point Contest come outside the corners. Among more than 165 players who have jacked at least 100 above-the-break triples this season, Harris' 45.5 percent clip ranks third. The two players in front of him, Marcus Morris and E'Twaun Moore, are not participating on Saturday night. The Curry brothers and Hield are the only other contestants who place inside the top 20.

Too technical? Maybe. Harris also said he's never simulated shooting off a rack while making an appearance on The Full 48 podcast with Bleacher Report's Howard Beck.

Let's agree not to care.

Specialists are more than capable of winning this event. Ask 2017 Eric Gordon. Or 2014 Marco Belinelli. Harris is a worthwhile dark horse.

   

Superstar Rumor Mill Reaches All-Time High

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

Two years ago, this wouldn't be considered bold. But the NBA moved up the trade deadline to ensure the rumor mill wouldn't reach fever pitch over All-Star Weekend (and for other logistical reasons).

So much for that.

The league can stop another All-Star from getting traded midway through the playground exhibition—shout-out, DeMarcus Cousins—but it cannot neutralize the interest in free agency. Everyone is itching to know what will happen with this year's top-heavy class.

Is Kevin Durant going to leave the Golden State Warriors for the New York Knicks? Do the Boston Celtics have to worry about Kyrie Irving doing the same? Are the Philadelphia 76ers in danger of losing Jimmy Butler or Tobias Harris? Is Kawhi Leonard really Los Angeles Clippers-bound? Would Kemba Walker dare to leave the Charlotte Hornets?

Does anyone care to play with LeBron James?

Anthony Davis' wandering eyes will only stoke the fire. The New Orleans Pelicans cannot deal him until the summer, but he'll be asked about his future. And every answer he gives, every move he makes, will be over-analyzed.

He finished a lob in transition from LeBron? He's going to the Lakers! He was seen walking within 100 feet of Kyrie Irving? Jayson Tatum better pack his bags after all.

He strolled into the Spectrum Center for Sunday night's game wearing a Mitchell Robinson jersey? OMG, the Knicks are really getting Davis and KD and Kyrie!

Important people from all walks of the basketball industry are descending upon Charlotte at a time of relative unrest. Bet on the NBA becoming more of a chatterbox than usual—particularly for this time of year.

   

LeBron Sets New Career High for All-Star Game Assists

Ned Dishman/Getty Images

To understand this, just take a look at how LeBron James' All-Star draft unfolded (in pick order):

James played it coy when asked about Team LeBron's robust collection of prospective free agents, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin:

"It's all good and well and dandy, but for me, I picked according to my draft board, and I picked according to who was the best available. It just so happened that I had KD, who's a pending free agent, and Kyrie, who's a pending free agent. James [Harden] is under contract until 2030. Kawhi's a free agent."

LeBron also went on to note that he selected other guys under contract—you know, Anthony Davis and Bradley Beal, who have never, ever, ever been linked to the Lakers in any capacity.

Regardless of whether he admits it, LeBron has plenty of recruiting to do over All-Star Weekend. And what better way to show prospective free agents and trade targets what it's really like playing with him than by setting them up for all the buckets? His 10 assists in 2011 are a career high for the All-Star Game. Don't be surprised if he gets to 11 or more this year.

   

There Will Be a 60-Point Quarter on Sunday

Gary Dineen/Getty Images

A review of the All-Star Game logs shows that no team has ever scored more than 53 points in a quarter. The Eastern Conference squad dropped 53 during the first 12 minutes in 2017, while the Western Conference crew eclipsed 50 points during each of the final three frames in 2016.

The record will fall this year.

On the one hand, that might not be saying much given the uptick in three-point shooting. On the other hand, neither Team LeBron nor Team Steph put up a 50-point quarter last season. The two squads combined to go 36-of-123 (29.3 percent) from beyond the arc, because, well, L.A. nightlife is undefeated.

Charlotte's party scene should be a bit more morning-after friendly. Even if it's not, outside chucking is now habitual. Nineteen of the league's teams are taking more than one-third of their shots from behind the rainbow.

Figure on somewhere around 140-plus triples getting fired during Sunday's superstar showcase. That volume coupled with slightly better efficiency will be enough for Team LeBron or Team Giannis, if not both, to clear the 60-point threshold in a single quarter.

I think.

   

Someone Hits at Least 10 3-Pointers

Tim Warner/Getty Images

As long as we're bracing ourselves for an obscenely high final score, why the heck not?

Paul George set the All-Star record for made three-pointers with nine in 2016. Someone will eventually break his mark. It might as well happen this year.

Adding an extra body to each team, with Dirk Nowitzki and Dwyane Wade, could complicate the pursuit. Playing time is an important part of absurd volume. Then again, maybe not.

George got off 19 three-point attempts while logging under 27 minutes in his record-breaking performance. Both of this year's rosters include a few candidates capable of sporting similar heat.

Stephen Curry has never hit more than six threes during an All-Star tilt, which feels ridiculously low—especially now, when he's averaging more than five made triples per game. James Harden has converted seven threebies in two separate All-Star Games and is more accustomed than ever to bombing away from deep.

Klay Thompson hit five long balls during last year's exhibition and might only need, say, 24 minutes of court time to reach 10. Kyrie Irving drilled six in 2017. Durant did the same in 2014, and he could definitely get to 10 if he sets his mind to it. Damian Lillard and Kemba Walker are good sleeper picks.

   

Fresh Prince Makes a Trey

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Early in the third quarter of the Sixers' Feb. 10 victory over the Lakers, Ben Simmons casually pulled up for an above-the-break three.

He missed.

Still, the moment was significant.

This marked Simmons' first in-rhythm long-range attempt of the season. His previous two came at the end of quarters as Hail Mary efforts. 

Most of Simmons' 14 career three-point tries have come in this fashion—as heaves at the end of quarters or last resorts late in the shot clock. To see him nonchalantly step into a triple when neither the game nor shot clock depended on it was an experience.

And I refuse to write this off as a coincidence so close to the All-Star Game. Sure, Simmons is stepping into more jumpers overall, as he gradually and occasionally seeks to expand his range. But, like, come on.

Fans and players alike will be clamoring for him to launch a three or 10 in Sunday's no-stakes contest. He is going to give in—and probably more than once. And while the odds are overwhelmingly against him making one, if there's ever a time to make this leap, it's when he's catching passes from LeBron James in a game that doesn't matter.

   

Dirk Dunks

Dirk Nowitzki earned an All-Star bid for a reason—so he could hammer one home at the age of 40, obviously.

He's also in Charlotte because he's an active legend, NBA champion, MVP and all-around swell human being who reinvented our perception of big men.

But mostly the dunking thing.

It has now been over a year since the German Race Car threw one down during live action. Last season's Feb. 10 finesse yam on the Lakers was his only smash of 2017-18, and he has "just" 12 in-game dunks over the past half-decade.

This might be wishful thinking. The dude is 40, and 40-somethings aren't supposed to have enough stretch or bounce to get most of their palm region above the rim. Forty-two-year-old Vince Carter is the exception to the exception's exception.

Wackier things have happened, though. I choose to assume Nowitzki caps off his deserved career-achievement nod by giving the people, his fellow All-Stars included, what they want—nay, what they need: a Dirk-forever jam.

    

Dame Wins All-Star MVP

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Screw the safe MVP picks. Roll with Damian Lillard instead.

Penciling in any reserve for MVP honors is a risk. Only two have snagged the award since 2000: Russell Westbrook (2015) and Shaquille O'Neal (2004; co-MVP with Kobe in 2009).

Lillard is the brand of reserve with the potential to join these ranks. He genuinely gives a damn about being an All-Star. He has lamented snubs in the past; he dropped a track entitled "They Sleep" after getting left off the 2016 squad.

Last year, during his first All-Star appearance since 2015, he dropped 21 points in under 21 minutes off the bench. Playing-time politics factor into the MVP equation, but he has flamethrowers for hands. He can make an award-worthy dent in role-player minutes.

It helps that he's a member of Team LeBron, under Captain I Need Another Superstar Running Mate.

The Lakers must have a Plan L in case they strike out on free agents and Anthony Davis this summer. People will naturally be looking for Lillard, a free agent in 2021, to get antsy if the Portland Trail Blazers crash and burn in the playoffs. This isn't to say they will, just that they could—like pretty much every other team in the West.

Ever the diplomat, not to mention a fan of Lillard's game, LeBron James could do some covert long-term recruiting by urging head coach Mike Malone to deploy Dame in larger doses.

     

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by SLC Dunk's Andrew Bailey.

   

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