The Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) will try to get to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 1993 on Saturday when they host the Indianapolis Colts (11-6) as solid home favorites at sportsbooks.

The Chiefs have failed in their last five attempts to get past the divisional round and lost in the AFC Wild Card Round last year while the Colts are coming off a 21-7 win over the Houston Texans last Saturday as 1.5-point road underdogs.

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as five-point favorites; the total was 56.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.2-25.9 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis has won 10 of its last 11 games straight up to go along with a 7-3-1 mark against the spread during that stretch. The lone loss for the Colts over that time was a 6-0 road defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13, and they have since won five in a row (4-1 ATS).

In last week's upset victory at Houston, they got a career-high 148 rushing yards from second-year running back Marlon Mack, who will be the key here since he can slow down the game vs. Kansas City by taking time off the clock and moving the chains. Quarterback Andrew Luck also has a lot more playoff experience than counterpart Patrick Mahomes.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Mahomes turned in an MVP-caliber season for the Chiefs in 2018 with 50 touchdown passes and 5,097 passing yards, becoming just the second signal-caller in NFL history to hit both of those milestones in the same campaign. Now is his time to really shine, though, because Kansas City has come up short in the past with Alex Smith under center.

This will be the first career postseason start for Mahomes, who led the Chiefs to a 7-1 record SU (4-4 ATS) during the regular season. If he can continue to play at a high level in the playoffs, Kansas City will have a great chance to make it to Atlanta.

Smart betting pick

In the AFC Wild Card Round, all three quarterbacks making their playoff debuts lost both SU and ATS, with all three falling at home. Mahomes is by far the best of the bunch, but there are a few trends working in favor of Indianapolis.

First, the Colts are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings with the Chiefs. Second, Kansas City is 1-11 SU and ATS at sports betting sites in its last 12 postseason appearances. Mahomes is great, but Indianapolis will come through with another upset.

NFL betting trends

The Colts are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs the Chiefs.

The total has gone under in six of the Colts' last eight games vs the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.