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Burning Questions Ahead of the 2019 CFB National Championship Game

Ian Wharton

Although the 2019 College Football Playoff didn't feature overly competitive games in the semifinal round, the four-team setup produced the matchup that seemed likeliest from the start of the season. For the fourth consecutive year, Alabama and Clemson will square off in the playoff. It's the third time in those four years that everything is on the line in the national championship game.

While some may be less enthused because the schools are the same, both programs look dramatically different than last year's version. Despite the attrition at both Alabama and Clemson, Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney have continued to reload with future NFLers across the board and maintained elite status.

Their two previous championship battles were epic displays of playmaking and high-level football, and there's no reason to expect anything less this go-around. This will be the tiebreaker in the championship battle between the two schools. The Crimson Tide won their first matchup 45-40 in 2016, while the Tigers rallied to win 35-31 in 2017.

We have eight burning questions to consider when it comes to which team will prevail and take home the hardware. Whichever team provides answers for these key areas should expect to win.

Can Clemson Compensate for Losing Dexter Lawrence?

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While Alabama's biggest strength as a team is its passing offense, the Clemson Tigers dominated their competition this season because of their defensive line wreaking havoc. They had unprecedented depth entering the playoff with defensive ends Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant and Xavier Thomas proving to be impressive forces when facing a single blocker.

However, their ability to collapse the middle of the pocket with defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence is what separated this line from other loaded units over the last decade. But with Lawrence suspended after testing positive for a banned substance, they are losing their largest interior defender and a key playmaker.

The 6'4", 340-pound Lawrence has created 18 tackles for loss and 10 sacks in his career, as well as countless other opportunities for his teammates through his disruption and ability to eat blocks.

Lawrence's absence may not matter too much; senior Albert Huggins showed he was a serviceable starter against Notre Dame.

But the margin for error against a high-caliber Alabama offensive line is small. Missing Lawrence could be the difference between Tua Tagovailoa and the Crimson Tide's passing game being held in check, or Tagovailoa having another explosive performance.

Will Either Team Establish the Run?

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Both the Crimson Tide and Tigers have undergone offensive overhauls since they last met in January 2018. Each traded in their run-first quarterbacks for younger, explosive passers who have elevated the ceiling for their offenses. The result has been two drastically more efficient passing attacks compared to the previous year.

While Clemson's run game actually improved from 2017 to 2018 with Trevor Lawrence under center, Alabama's took a step back in terms of efficiency. Clemson averages 6.7 yards per carry thanks to star running back Travis Etienne, while Alabama's Cerberus backfield have tallied a more middling 5.3 yards per carry.

Both teams boast an elite run defense though, and it's possible this could be the difference-maker.

While Clemson is superior in this department, allowing just 98.6 yards per game and a paltry 2.6 yards per carry, Alabama is still stellar, yielding 121.1 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry on the season.

If Clemson can create enough holes for Etienne to sprint through on his wide zone reads, he can quickly eat up yards with his incredible speed. The Tide's defensive front hasn't been quite as good as some of its previous iterations, but expect Nick Saban to sell out on early downs to prevent Etienne from repeatedly creating chunk gains.

How Will Trevor Lawrence React to Alabama's Secondary?

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There's not a consistent blueprint to beat a Nick Saban defense thanks to the blend of elite scheming, talent on the field and unique skill set needed to break it. Deshaun Watson and Johnny Manziel were two of the notable quarterbacks who were able to take down Saban's defenses, and it took extreme performances outside of each team's system to outscore Alabama.

Saban's pattern-matching system allows his cornerback to transition between man and zone coverages based on the release of receivers. Alabama's young secondary has improved leaps and bounds since the early part of the year and now operates with the precision that the head coach is accustomed to.

As well as Lawrence has played, he's up for the biggest challenge of his young career. For the Tigers to win, he must be ready to deliver when the situation calls for elite playmaking.

Lawrence entered Clemson with more hype and expectations around him than most ever face, and he's lived up to them all. On Monday night, he will have to prove he's capable of extending plays outside of the pocket and gaining big chunks of yards in the face of NFL-ready defenders.

Can Alabama Keep Tua Tagovailoa Clean?

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Even without Dexter Lawrence in the lineup, the Clemson Tigers boast a deeply talented defensive line. On Monday night, their most important task is to get to Tua Tagovailoa and keep him from finding his rhythm.

Tagovailoa and the Alabama offensive line have yielded the 10th-fewest sacks in the nation this season with 14. They accomplish this with a terrific pass-blocking line, but credit must also be given to Tagovailoa's ability to read incoming pressure pre-snap and a plethora of receivers who create separation quickly.

Because Alabama's built such a healthy passing ecosystem, the Tigers will need to bring extra pressure. Brent Venables' defense led the nation with 52 sacks this season, and his unit has been lights out when bringing pressure. According to Bill Connelly of SB Nation, the Tigers were second in blitz-down sack rate and 14th in blitz-down success rate.

If Tagovailoa is given any sort of significant time or can escape the pocket, he can eviscerate any defense in college football. Clemson must prioritize reaching him repeatedly to keep him uncomfortable.

Will a Big Special Teams Play Alter Momentum?

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One of the big differences between Alabama's past iterations and this year's squad is it's not nearly as good at making big plays on special teams. While the Tide have an elite punt-coverage unit, allowing only 24 total yards on such returns, they aren't elite in kick return yards, punt return yards and opponent kick return yards.

But it's not an advantage for Clemson, as the Tigers aren't elite in any of those areas, either.

The lack of an advantage could set the stage for a game-changing special teams play. Since neither dominate the game's third phase, a key turnover, big return or lack of impact plays can shift the momentum as possessions change.

Just flash back to the January 2016 matchup when Alabama recovered an onside kick. That moment changed the game and allowed Tide to pull off the deciding play.

Which Team Will Win the 3rd-Down Battle?

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The outcome of the third-down battle often tells a story. The better coaching staff and set of playmakers will usually be more successful at conversions than their counterparts. It shouldn't come as a surprise that Alabama and Clemson are among the country's top teams on third down. 

But The Tide have a slight edge over the Tigers in that department.

Alabama converted a whopping 53.9 percent of its 152 third downs—good for second in the nation. Its defense ranked 15th by allowing 31.9 percent of the 207 attempts to be converted.

Clemson was stronger in its third-down defense but weaker on its conversion attempts. Swinney's Tigers finished 25th with a success rate of 44.4 percent on offense and fifth in opponent conversions at 28.3 percent.

The results of their performances on third down have varied throughout their three matchups. Combined, Alabama has been successful on 19 of 50 attempts, while Clemson has converted 21 of 51 tries.

Unsurprisingly, the team that's more successful on third down within the matchup has gone on to win.

Can Clemson's Secondary Force a Turnover?

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The Tigers pass defense is one of the nation's most effective. Boasting a great mixture of size and refined technicians who hold their own on an island, Clemson has held opponents to 6.2 yards per throw, 11 passing touchdowns and a 108.6 quarterback rating.

Cornerbacks Trayvon Mullen and A.J. Terrell have been a big part of that because of their stickiness in man coverage. Safeties Tanner Muse and K'Von Wallace are difference-making, versatile juniors who can switch between playing in the box, moving into zones and manning up against slot receivers and tight ends. 

The unit's weakness, though, is its inability to force turnovers on the back end. Only six of the Tigers' interceptions have come from the secondary. Considering Tagovailoa threw only four picks all season, the main goal for this unit should be to force a turnover via the pass rush.

The Tigers will have their hands full with the Tide's deep receiving corps. They boast at least two No. 1-type receivers who possess great speed, route running and hands in Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. Making an aggressive play on the ball is risky but can change the game's outcome.

Which Alabama Running Back Gets the Most Touches?

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Against Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, Alabama displayed its embarrassment of riches. Third-string running back Josh Jacobs emerged from the contest with 19 touches for 158 yards and one touchdown. While Jacobs flourished with two touchdowns against Georgia in the SEC title game, he was an unlikely hero after he spent the season as a reserve.

The Crimson Tide's ability to utilize three backs who boast power and varying skill sets is something to watch against Clemson.

Leading back Damien Harris is the most balanced and offers experience as a pass-blocker on top of his running and receiving talent. He generally earns more snaps because of his reliability in all three phases.

Jacobs is stout and arguably the best matchup against Clemson because of his sheer explosiveness. He'll lower his shoulder and almost always win the leverage battle. He left the Sooners defense bruised and broken by using the truck stick in the open field for extra yards.

Najee Harris (6'2", 230 lbs) is the biggest, most powerful of the group, but he has only four receptions on the year. He's more of the closer and gap-blocking back, as he can pulverize defenders to overcome speed limitations.

It's possible Clemson will shut down each of them and force Tagovailoa to win with his arm. It's safe to say Alabama will attempt to demoralize Clemson before it goes all-out with its passing game.

   

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