Nevada's Caleb Martin (10), Jordan Caroline (24) and Cody Martin (11) Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

CBB's Superstar Transfer Explosion is Reshaping 2019 National Title Chase

Kerry Miller

Don't call it an epidemic, but the sharp increase in both rate and quality of transfers in college basketball over the past few years has revolutionized the way that coaches build title contenders.

Until recently, the idea of a team winning a national championship with a former transfer in the starting lineup seemed almost impossible.

When Gonzaga made it to the 2017 Final Four with not one, not two, but three starting transfers, I went back through a decade's worth of NCAA tournaments to find out how rare that was. That research revealed the following:

But now there are indispensable transfers everywhere you look.

All four of last year's Final Four teams had at least one transfer in the starting lineup: Villanova (Eric Paschall), Kansas (Malik Newman), Michigan (Charles Matthews) and Loyola-Chicago (Clayton Custer and Marques Townes). And though he didn't start for Michigan during the tournament, D-III transfer Duncan Robinson ranked fourth on the team in scoring. He was basically a sixth starter.

Even if we don't count Robinson, that's still 25 percent of Final Four starters who had previously transferred.

This year, it's hard to even come up with a viable Final Four quartet that doesn't include some transfers.

Of the teams ranked No. 15 or higher in the latest AP Top 25, the only ones that haven't started a transfer in at least four games this season are Duke, Tennessee and Michigan State.

Presented differently: 80 percent of the top 15 teams in the nation are counting on at least one transfer in a big way.

Not only is it likely that the majority of Final Four teams will have at least one former transfer in the starting lineup, but there's a reasonable possibility that one will be named National Player of the Year. That's a significant change from last year when Paschall, Matthews and Newman were role players rather than stars.

The most likely candidate for that honor is Dedric Lawson at Kansas.

Dedric Lawson Adam Hunger/Associated Press

The 6'8" power forward was sensational during his two years at Memphis. Had the Tigers been even remotely relevant in 2016-17, Lawson's individual contributions (19.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.1 BPG, 1.3 SPG) would have garnered serious consideration for the various NPOY awards. But it's largely because Tubby Smith and Memphis squandered his talent for two years that he ended up relocating to Kansas.

He has continued to dominate with the Jayhawks, even though he is facing a much tougher schedule now. Lawson has put up at least 20 points and 12 rebounds in all five games against Tier A opponents, averaging 25.6 points and 13.0 rebounds. He was named the KenPom.com game MVP in each of those five contests, as well as three others.

Lawson isn't blocking shots quite like he used to at Memphis, but he's still the most valuable player on his own teamand arguably the most valuable in the country.

If not him, perhaps Gonzaga's Brandon Clarke could win the Wooden Award and/or determine who wins the national championship this year.

For all the accolades being thrown in Rui Hachimura's direction, Clarke has been Gonzaga's most valuable asset. Similar to Lawson, Clarke fills up the stat sheet on a nightly basis. Through 15 games, the big man is shooting 69.5 percent from the field and averaging 17.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.1 blocks, 1.7 assists and 1.6 steals.

The San Jose State transfer has scored in double figures in every game this season, but it's the defense which makes him so special. Clarke blocked six shots in Gonzaga's marquee win over Duke, including several rejections of RJ Barrett in the final minute of a two-point game. He also had one block that Tennessee's Yves Pons will not be able to forget any time soon:

Those two phenoms aren't alone.

There's also Braxton Key, who went from Alabama to Virginia this summer and has become a godsend for that pack-line defense. Former Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews is a driving force of Michigan's undefeated start to the season. Texas Tech is thriving because transfers Matt Mooney, Tariq Owens, Deshawn Corprew and Brandone Francis each rank top seven on the roster in scoring.

And we can't possibly talk about transfers without mentioning Nevada.

Eric Musselman is taking this trend to an extreme, hoping to go 40-0 with almost an entire roster of transfers. With the exception of McDonald's All-American freshman Jordan Brown, every player who has scored a point for Nevada started his college career elsewhere.

Caleb and Cody Martin came from North Carolina State. Jordan Caroline began at Southern Illinois. Jazz Johnson was at Portland before he started shooting 58.5 percent from three-point range for the Wolf Pack. Corey Henson (Wagner) and Nisre Zouzoua (Bryant) each came to Nevada from the Northeast Conference. Tre'Shawn Thurman spent three seasons at Nebraska-Omaha. And Trey Porter went through both George Mason and Old Dominion before getting to the Wolf Pack.

Caleb Martin is probably their top candidate for NPOY, as he is leading the team in points and steals and ranks top three in rebounds, assists and blocks. But Caroline is putting up just under 19 points and 10 rebounds per game, and Cody Martin might actually be the most valuable player as the team's point forward. Any member of that trio could win the Wooden Award if the Wolf Pack keep winning games.

Even if Duke wins the national championship and Zion Williamson or RJ Barrett is named NPOY, this season should still serve as a turning point for the way we view transfers. If a program can't land the one-and-done guys, it can still make a strong push at a national championship thanks to players who transfer and prosper.

             

Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com. All statistics current through start of play on Jan. 2.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.

   

Read 1 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)