The Houston Texans (10-5) can clinch the AFC South title Sunday when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) as solid home favorites at sportsbooks. The Texans can also still earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a victory and loss by the New England Patriots. Houston can drop down to the No. 6 seed in the playoffs with a loss as well.

NFL point spread: The Texans opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 40.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.0-12.0 Texans (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jaguars were expected to successfully defend their division title, but a seven-game losing streak over the second and third months of the season prevented that from happening. During that stretch, starting quarterback Blake Bortles was benched, and a once-dominant defense surrendered 20 points or more in each game.

The defense has played much better in Jacksonville's last four games, holding opponents to an average of a little more than 13 points and leading to a 2-2 mark both straight up and against the spread. With Bortles returning under center, the team should score more too.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans suffered a tough 32-30 road loss a week ago to the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles but still managed to push as two-point underdogs. The Eagles faced a must-win situation at home and kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired.

Houston has now gone 2-1-2 against the spread in its last five overall, but the team is a remarkable 16-4 straight up in its previous 20 at home after playing consecutive road games. The Texans won the first meeting with the Jaguars 20-7 as 3.5-point road underdogs and will also have running back Lamar Miller (ankle) back.

Smart betting pick

Houston may not have much of a chance to steal the No. 2 seed away from the New England Patriots, but the team does not want to miss out on the opportunity to win the AFC South either.

The Texans have gone 9-3 SU in the past 12 home meetings with the Jaguars, who have covered five of the last six though at NRG Stadium. Keeping those key trends in mind, look for Houston to pull off the victory to win the division but fall short of covering the spread in a close game.

NFL betting trends

The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road vs. the Texans.

The total has gone under in 17 of the Texans' last 24 games in December.

The Texans are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games at home after consecutive road games.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.