The New England Patriots (10-5) can secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win over the New York Jets (4-11) as double-digit home favorites at sportsbooks. The Patriots have never won the Super Bowl without a bye, something they have earned each of the previous eight seasons.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 14-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 38.2-9.8 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Jets can cover the spread

The Jets are obviously getting a lot of points in this game, and the Buffalo Bills managed to cover the spread late in a 24-12 loss at New England last week, closing as 13.5-point road underdogs. The Patriots simply need to win this game and do not have to worry about margin of victory or anything else.

New York hung tough with New England in the first meeting between the teams in Week 12, covering for most of the game until a late touchdown led to a 27-13 loss as a 13.5-point home underdog.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots have dominated their division like no other team in the NFL en route to winning 10 consecutive AFC East titles. They have won 13 of their last 15 divisional games straight up, going 10-5 against the spread during that stretch. They have also won 14 straight games at Gillette Stadium overall to go along with an impressive 11-3 ATS mark.

This is another important test for New England's defense, which must play better in the postseason, and the players will be motivated to hold their opponent to single digits.

Smart betting pick

The best-case scenario for the Patriots is scoring a couple early touchdowns and shutting down the Jets, allowing key starters like quarterback Tom Brady to rest in the second half. The problem is that it might take scoring only one touchdown for New York to cover, much like Buffalo did last week.

For that reason, bettors should look at the total instead. The under has cashed in seven of New England's last eight games, averaging a little less than 41 points, so bet on that trend to continue at Gillette on Sunday.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in the Jets' last five games vs. the Patriots.

The visiting team is 1-5 ATS in its last six games in this matchup.

The total has gone under in seven of the Patriots' last eight games.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.