Mississippi State is 9-2 over its last 11 bowl games, and it is 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread over its last five.

Iowa, meanwhile, is just 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS over its last six bowl appearances.

The bowl betting trends favor the Bulldogs heading into their Outback Bowl battle with the Hawkeyes on New Year's Day in Tampa, Florida.

College football point spread: The Bulldogs opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.5-27.1 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Iowa Hawkeyes can cover the spread

Iowa started 6-1 this season, with wins over Iowa State and bowl winner Minnesota. The only loss came against Wisconsin.

The Hawkeyes then lost three straight games, but they came by six points at Penn State, by two points at Purdue and by four points to eventual Big Ten West champion Northwestern.

Iowa then won its last two games, including a 31-28 decision over an improving Nebraska team in the regular-season finale to finish 5-4 in Big Ten play.

The Hawkeyes are playing in a bowl for the sixth straight season.

Iowa outgained seven of its last eight opponents and outrushed a different seven of their last eight foes. Also, while the Hawkeyes aren't exactly known for putting a lot of points on the board, they hit the 30-point mark seven times this season.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

Mississippi State started 3-0 this season then struggled through a 1-3 stretch, although the losses came against three pretty good teams in Kentucky, Florida and LSU.

The Bulldogs then knocked off a good Texas A&M outfit and lost to eventual SEC champion and College Football Playoff qualifier Alabama, but they won their last two games by a combined score of 87-9 to finish 4-4 in SEC play.

Mississippi State is playing in a bowl for the ninth straight season.

The Bulldogs outgained and outrushed six of their last seven opponents, going 5-2 both SU and ATS along the way. And while Mississippi State had its occasional problems on offense, the Bulldogs defense stuffed seven of 12 opponents this season to the tune of 10 points or less.

Smart betting pick

Mississippi State owns statistical edges all over the stat sheet for this matchup. However, the Bulldogs might be a bit too reliant on quarterback Nick Fitzgerald for offensive production.

Meanwhile, of Iowa's four losses this season, just one came by more than a touchdown. And for a potential "first to 20" affair, a touchdown with the spread might be huge.

Despite these teams' recent bowl betting trends, the smart money takes the Hawkeyes and the points.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of Mississippi State's last nine games.

Mississippi State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games in the playoffs.

The total has gone under in three of Iowa's last four games versus the SEC.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.