Kansas City owns the recent rivalry with Oakland, winning seven of the last eight meetings straight up—including a shootout victory earlier this month—and going 5-3 against the spread in the process. But can the Chiefs cover two touchdowns against the Raiders on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium?

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 14-point favorites; the total was 53.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.1-16.4 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Raiders can cover the spread

Oakland is 2-1 SU over its last three games and 3-1 ATS over its last four after downing Denver on Monday night 27-14.

The Raiders took the lead for good on a 99-yard punt return for a touchdown by Dwayne Harris five minutes into the game, led 17-0 at the half and held on from there for the outright victory as three-point underdogs.

Oakland outrushed the Broncos 114-100 and won the turnover battle 2-0.

The Raiders have outgained three of their last six opponents, going 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS over that span, which is good considering how lousy they were earlier this season. At 4-11 overall, Oakland is playing to build some momentum heading into the second year of the new Gruden era.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City won six of seven games into December but now seeks to halt a two-game losing skid after succumbing at Seattle on Sunday night 38-31.

The Chiefs played the Seahawks to a 17-17 tie late into the third quarter, fell down by two scores, got back within one with just over a minute to go but couldn't get the ball back.

Kansas City produced 419 yards of total offense, including 154 on the ground, but lost the turnover battle 2-0, resulting in a minus-seven point differential.

Prior to last week, the Chiefs had outgained five of their previous six opponents and outrushed four of their previous six foes.

At 11-4 overall, Kansas City can clinch the No. 1 seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs with a victory Sunday.

Smart betting pick

Kansas City won the first meeting between these teams this season 40-33 out in Oakland, but the Raiders covered as 14-point home dogs.

In fact, Oakland is 3-1 ATS over its last four games, playing some better ball as of late, while the Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS over their last six games, giving up a lot of points while playing against some inflated spreads.

Kansas City will probably win this game outright, but the smart money takes the Raiders and the points.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of the Raiders' last 10 games on the road versus the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home against teams with losing records.

The Raiders are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.