The Milwaukee Bucks (22-10) will be out to avenge a tough loss to the New York Knicks (9-25) a little more than three weeks ago when they square off again at Madison Square Garden on Christmas Day. The Bucks dropped a 136-134 decision to the Knicks in overtime as 8.5-point road favorites December 1.

NBA point spread: The Bucks opened as five-point favorites; the total is at 228, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Why the Bucks can cover the spread

There is no doubt that Milwaukee is the superior team in this matchup, the question is simply whether or not the number is too big to cover. The Bucks had won the previous six meetings, going 3-2-1 against the spread. Their last four wins in the series have been decided by an average of 11.5 points, proving their prior dominance.

Even though Milwaukee lost its last game on the road on Saturday after a large victory against the Boston Celtics away from home the previous night, the team is still 6-2 in its last eight straight up and 4-3-1 ATS, with three of the wins decided by 12 points or more points.

Why the Knicks can cover the spread

New York pulled off the upset a few weeks ago and can do it again in this spot. The key for the Knicks is shooting the ball well from the field, something they did in the most recent meeting. They made 51 of 96 shots overall (53.1 percent), including 20 of 34 (58.8) from three-point range.

The backcourt of Emmanuel Mudiay and Tim Hardaway Jr. was also outstanding, combining for 49 points and seven three-pointers. Their reserves played great as well, outscoring the Bucks' bench by a 62-29 margin.

Smart betting pick

New York has just one victory since beating Milwaukee, going 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. During their current four-game skid, the Knicks have lost three times by double digits, and this figures to be a fourth. Bet the Bucks to win big and cover.

NBA betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of Milwaukee's last 10 games.

The total has gone under in five of Milwaukee's last six games on the road.

New York is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games.

All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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