The most evenly matched Christmas game will take place in Houston when the Rockets (17-15) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (21-11) as home favorites at sportsbooks. The Rockets have been playing much better recently and ride a six-game home winning streak into this matchup, with their last loss at the Toyota Center happening on November 28 when they fell 128-108 to the Dallas Mavericks.

NBA point spread: The Rockets opened as six-point favorites; the total is at 220.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the Thunder can cover the spread

The Thunder have won the past two meetings and three of the last four in the series straight up, going 4-1 against the spread in the previous five. Oklahoma City routed Houston 98-80 as a five-point home underdog on November 8 behind five starters who scored in double figures, and Russell Westbrook was not one of them since he did not play in that game

Instead, Paul George led the balanced scoring effort with 20 points, while the backcourt of James Harden and Chris Paul of the Rockets was held to a total of 29 points between them.

Why the Rockets can cover the spread

If Houston has indeed turned the corner, this is a game that will show just how much the team has improved since the first meeting earlier this season. The Rockets have gone 5-0-1 ATS during their home winning streak, and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as well, with the lone loss during that stretch coming on the road vs. the Miami Heat 101-99 as three-point favorites.

Even though Paul is out with a hamstring injury, Houston still found a way to defeat the San Antonio Spurs 108-101 as a 4.5-point home favorite on Saturday with Harden scoring a game-high 39 points.

Smart betting pick

Harden must continue to carry the Rockets for them to remain in the playoff hunt, and he has experience doing that from before Paul even arrived in Houston.

Eric Gordon scored 18 points while filling in for Paul against San Antonio, and he and Harden also combined to dish out 16 assists. It may seem hard to make an argument that the Rockets are better without Paul, but they have value as small favorites and will find a way to earn the victory and cover the spread in the process.

NBA betting trends

Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last six games on the road.

The total has gone under in 17 of Oklahoma City's last 24 games on the road.

Houston is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games.

All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.