The New England Patriots (9-5) will look to end a two-game losing streak and clinch their 10th straight AFC East title on Sunday when they host the Buffalo Bills (5-9) as double-digit home favorites in a divisional matchup.

The Patriots have played at home just once since Week 9 and will not win 12 games or more for the first time since 2009.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 10.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.9-15.7 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills did not have rookie quarterback Josh Allen under center in the first meeting and were instead forced to start veteran Derek Anderson.

That did not end well, with the 35-year-old throwing an interception for a touchdown to seal Buffalo's fate in a 25-6 home loss in Week 8.

The Bills had hung tough for much of that game and were covering the spread until that fateful pick six with 5:54 left. New England closed as a 13.5-point favorite and outscored Buffalo 13-0 in the fourth quarter to beat the number.

With Allen, the Bills have a dual-threat quarterback who can help keep Tom Brady off the field.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots will be motivated and upset after losing back-to-back games on the road, something no opponent wants to deal with at this point of the season.

They still have a chance to earn one of the top two seeds in the AFC and will go all-out to make that happen over the final two weeks, hoping the Kansas City Chiefs and/or Houston Texans will stumble as well in order to give them a shot.

New England has gone 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread at Gillette Stadium this year, so winning out is a more-than-likely scenario.

Smart betting pick

The Patriots are fortunate to close out the regular season with two home games versus AFC East foes that have a combined record of 9-19 right now.

Unfortunately for them, they have been pretty bad on the road with a mark of 3-5 both SU and ATS, and they face the prospect of kicking off the postseason away from home.

The Patriots do hold tiebreakers over the Chiefs and Texans and have covered the spread in the past four meetings, so expect another strong effort at Gillette leading to another cover.

NFL betting trends

The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs the Patriots.

The total has gone under in three of the Bills' last four games on the road vs the Patriots.

The Patriots are 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games at home.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.