The Kansas City Chiefs, playing against inflated spreads as of late, are 0-4-1 against the spread their last five times out. The Seattle Seahawks, perhaps playing a bit under the national radar, are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 times out. Who's the smart bet for Sunday night's big meeting between these former division rivals?

NFL point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 53.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.0-25.1 Seahawks (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is looking to bounce back this week after taking a tough 29-28 loss to the Chargers last week. The Chiefs turned an early takeaway into the first seven points of the game, drove their second possession to another touchdown and led 28-14 midway through the fourth quarter. But they gave up the last 15 points, losing on a Chargers touchdown with four seconds left and a subsequent two-point conversion.

For the night, Kansas City were beaten along most of the stat sheet, but a pass interference call in the end zone was pretty much the only thing that denied them the victory.

Prior to last week, the Chiefs had out-gained each of their previous five opponents.

Kansas City is also 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS on the road this season. At 11-3 overall the Chiefs lead the Chargers by a tie-breaker in the battle for the best record in the AFC.

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

Seattle is also looking to rebound this week from a 26-23 overtime loss at San Francisco last week. The Seahawks drove their first possession of the game 59 yards to a touchdown but immediately gave up a 97-yard kickoff return for a score. Seattle later forced OT with a late field goal but lost when a long gain was negated by a penalty, forcing a punt that led to the 49ers' game-winning field goal.

On the day the Seahawks out-gained San Francisco 385-351, out-rushed the 49ers 168-94 and held a 37/30 time of possession advantage. But they also got called for 14 penalties for 148 yards, including a pass interference call on the 49ers' game-winning drive.

Seattle has now out-rushed nine of its last 11 opponents, going 7-3-1 ATS along the way.

The Seahawks are also 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS at sports betting sites at home this season. At 8-6 overall the Seahawks can clinch a playoff berth with one win in their last two games.

Smart betting pick

Kansas City gets the checkmark on offense but Seattle owns the better running game and the better defense. And in matchups like this, the latter two factors usually indicate the better bet. The smart money here sides with the Seahawks.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in the Chiefs' last four games vs. the Seahawks.

The Seahawks are 24-6-4 ATS in their last 34 games at night.

The total has gone over in the Chiefs' last four games.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.