Drew Brees holds the edge in the quarterback rivalry with Cam Newton, winning eight of 14 head-to-head matchups straight up, including the last three in a row. And Brees' New Orleans Saints are 9-5 against the spread over that span against Carolina. Brees and Newton face off for the 15th time on Monday night in Charlotte.

NFL point spread: The Saints opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 54.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.6-18.8 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans just bounced back from that tough loss at Dallas two weeks ago to beat the Buccaneers in Tampa last week, 28-14. The Saints started slowly and trailed the Bucs 14-3 well into the third quarter, but a blocked punt sparked a 25-0 run as New Orleans went on to win and cover as a 10-point favorite.

On the day, the Saints only came up with 298 yards of total offense but held Tampa Bay, which was ranked No. 1 in the league in total yardage, to just 279.

New Orleans, the favorite on the Super Bowl 53 odds, is now 9-1 ATS over its last 10 games. It's also 6-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season.

At 11-2 overall, the Saints have clinched the NFC South title, and they lead the Rams by a head-to-head tie-breaker in the battle for the best record in the NFC.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers are a tough client to shill for at the moment, what with five straight losses, including a 26-20 decision at Cleveland last week. But the last four losses have all come by seven points or less, a total of 17 points.

Carolina actually drove the opening possession of the game last week 65 yards to a touchdown and led 20-17 into the fourth quarter. But the Panthers gave up nine quick Browns points to fall behind, then came up empty on a drive that reached the Cleveland 3-yard line with just over two minutes to go. Newton then threw an interception in last-gasp time.

On the day, Carolina out-gained Cleveland 393-348, held a 22-12 edge in first downs and a 34-26 advantage in time of possession. It just came up about one play short.

The Panthers have now out-gained each of their last four opponents, and yet lost all four games.

On the season, Carolina is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home. At 6-7 overall, the Panthers still only trail Minnesota by a half-game in the battle for the second NFC wild-card spot.

Smart betting pick

New Orleans won the most recent meeting in this series, an NFC wild-card game last season, 31-26. But Carolina covered as a six-point dog. Also, five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry have been decided by five points or less. The Saints may still win this one outright but smart money takes the Panthers and the points.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in seven of the Saints' last eight games vs the Panthers.

The Panthers are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at home.

The total has gone over in the Panthers' last five games at home.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.