The Denver Broncos not only broke the hearts of Browns Nation all those years ago in that AFC Championship Game they're also 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread over the last 10 meetings with Cleveland. Can the Browns break through when they battle the Broncos on Saturday night at Mile High?

NFL point spread: The Broncos opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.2-23.0 Broncos (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns are 3-1 both SU and ATS over their last four games, after outlasting Carolina last week 26-20. Cleveland spotted the Panthers the first seven points of the game and trailed 20-17 into the fourth quarter. But the Browns took the lead on a Nick Chubb touchdown run, added a field goal, then clinched the victory with a defensive stop at their own 3-yard line and an interception.

Cleveland is now 3-2 both SU and ATS on the point spread since firing its head coach.

At 5-7-1 overall, the Browns still cling to faint playoff hopes, sitting a game-and-a-half back of 7-6 Baltimore and others in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver is looking to bounce back this week after falling at San Francisco last week 20-14. The Broncos fell down to the 49ers in the first half 20-0, pulled to within one score with four minutes to go but could get no closer.

The key play in the game came in the second quarter, a Denver broken coverage that resulted in an 85-yard San Francisco touchdown. And in the end, that made all the difference.

Prior to last week, the Broncos won three games in a row, covering three straight spreads in the process. Denver has also out-rushed six of its last seven opponents, going 5-2 ATS at betting sites along the way.

At 6-7 overall, the Broncos trail the Ravens and others by just one game for that second AFC wild-card slot.

Smart betting pick

Denver is coming off a disappointing defeat, while Cleveland is coming off a hard-earned victory. But reversals of fortune occur every week in the NFL, and this game seems a likely candidate to produce one. The smart money here bets the Broncos, the home team at a short spread.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in three of the Browns' last four games vs the Broncos.

The Broncos are 32-10 SU in their last 42 games at home in December.

The Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs teams with losing records.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.