Chicago is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread over the last six meetings with the Rams, but the last meeting came three seasons ago, and a lot has changed since then for both teams. In a big game in the NFC, the Bears battle Los Angeles on Sunday night at Soldier Field.

NFL point spread: The Rams opened as four-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.4-18.8 Bears (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Rams can cover the spread

Los Angeles just won its third game in a row and clinched the NFC West, beating the Lions in Detroit last week 30-16. The Rams drew first blood with a first-quarter field goal, led 13-3 at the half, let the Lions get within 16-13 in the third but pulled away with a couple of late scores and covered as 10-point favorites.

On the afternoon, Los Angeles out-gained Detroit 344-310 and out-rushed the Lions 149-102. So on the season, the Rams have out-gained 10 of their 12 opponents and out-rushed eight of 12 foes.

They've also hit the 30-point mark 10 times in 12 games.

At 11-1 overall, Los Angeles leads New Orleans by one game in the battle for the best record in the NFC. But the Rams cannot let up, because the Saints own the head-to-head tie-breaker.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago is looking to bounce back this week after seeing its five-game winning streak end in a 30-27 overtime loss to the Giants last week. The Bears fell down to New York 7-0 on an early Chase Daniel pick-six, scored the next 14 points, fell down 27-17 late in the fourth quarter but scored twice in the last two minutes, including on a trick play on the final play of regulation to force OT.

Unfortunately, they gave up a field goal with six minutes to go in the extra period and could not respond. On the afternoon, Chicago out-gained the Giants 376-338 but lost the turnover battle 3-1, resulting in a minus-13 point differential.

The Bears have now out-gained seven of their last 10 opponents, going 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS along the way. Chicago is also 5-1 both SU and ATS at home this season.

At 8-4 overall, the Bears lead the NFC North by a game-and-a-half over Minnesota, and they own the No. 3 spot in the NFC playoff standings.

Smart betting pick

Los Angeles gets the check-mark on offense, but Chicago gets the check-mark on defense. Also, while the Bears might still be without their starting quarterback Daniel has been decent in relief. Throw in a warm-weather team playing in some cold weather and the smart money here likes the home dog.

NFL betting trends

The Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs the Bears.

The Bears are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games at home vs teams with winning records.

The Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in December.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.