Tennessee owns five wins in the last six meetings with division-rival Jacksonville, including a low-scoring affair earlier this season, going 4-1-1 against the spread in the process. The Titans shoot to extend that run and stay in the AFC playoff race when they host the Jaguars Thursday night.

NFL point spread: The Titans opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 37 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.6-12.8 Titans (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Jacksonville just snapped a seven-game losing skid with a 6-0 victory over Indianapolis last week. The Jaguars took a 3-0 lead late in the second quarter, added another field goal early in the fourth quarter and held on from there for the outright win as four-point dogs.

On the day, Jacksonville only produced 211 yards of total offense but only allowed 265, as the Jags defense stymied the Colts offense time after time, allowing zero points on four incursions inside Jacksonville territory.

Backup quarterback Cody Kessler, making the start in place of an ineffective Blake Bortles, hit on 18 of 24 passes for 150 yards, and most importantly, he did not turn the ball over.

While the Jaguars recently lost seven straight, each of the last four came by six points or fewer. Also, Jacksonville has out-rushed each of its last four opponents, and it gets running back Leonard Fournette back this week after he missed last week's game serving a suspension.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 26-22 come-from-behind victory over the New York Jets last week. The Titans fell down to New York 16-0 in the second quarter and trailed 22-13 into the fourth. But Tennessee scored the last 13 points of the game, the final seven on a Marcus Mariota touchdown pass with 30 seconds left, to steal the win.

On the day, the Titans out-gained the Jets 403-280. Also, the Tennessee defense did not allow a touchdown; New York kicked five field goals and scored on a first-quarter pick-six.

Tennessee is now 4-1 SU at home this season. At 6-6 overall the Titans only trail Baltimore by one game in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.

Smart betting pick

Tennessee beat Jacksonville 9-6 back in September and swept the season series last year, the second game by a score of 15-10. And this one should be close, and probably ugly, too. The smart money takes the Jaguars and the points.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in six of the Titans' last seven games vs divisional opponents.

The Jaguars are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games at night.

The total has gone under in four of the Jaguars' last five games vs divisional opponents.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.