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Fantasy Football Week 11: Confident Calls on Toughest Lineup Decisions

Kristopher Knox

It's a critical time in the fantasy football season. We're entering Week 11, and there's a good chance your fantasy playoffs are less than a month away. With six teams on bye this week, it's likely that you face some tough matchups as well.

The Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers are all off. This means you'll be replacing fantasy starters like Tom Brady, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb and George Kittle with guys off the bench or waiver wire.

We're here to help you figure out which players—ones who aren't already must-starts—you can confidently rely on. We'll do so by analyzing factors like opponent, performance to date and player health. We'll make our choices based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring formats.

      

QB Mitchell Trubisky vs. Minnesota Vikings

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Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky isn't a fantasy must-start yet, but he's definitely on the upswing. He's been growing as a passer in Matt Nagy's offense, and his ability as a runner gives him fantasy upside.

Last week, Trubisky threw for 355 yards and three touchdowns and also ran for a fourth score.

Trubisky faces a tough Minnesota Vikings defense in Week 11, though. The Vikings defense has limited opposing quarterbacks to an average of 233.3 yards per game and has sacked them 31 times.

However, Minnesota isn't quite as daunting in the fantasy world. Another 11 teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. We probably won't see Trubisky carve up Minnesota the way he did the Detroit Lions last week, but he should be a safe start.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 280 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, three TDs

QB Andy Dalton at Baltimore Ravens

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Mitchell Trubisky could have a strong fantasy outing against a divisional opponent in Week 11. The same cannot be said for Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton. There are a couple of reasons for this.

The first is that Dalton faces the league's third-ranked passing defense (205.2 yards per game allowed). He'll be doing so in Baltimore, where the Ravens defense has allowed 16 points per game. Only two teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks too.

The other problem is that Dalton will be without top receiver A.J. Green, likely for some time. ESPN's Adam Schefter recently reported that it's "increasingly likely" Green remains out until December.

Dalton played without Green last week and finished with just 153 yards and one touchdown to go with two interceptions—against a New Orleans Saints team that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

If you own Dalton, look for an alternative this week.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 225 yards passing, one TD, two INTs

RB Adrian Peterson vs. Houston Texans

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On the surface, Washington Redskins running back Adrian Peterson doesn't look like a smart play in Week 11. He's coming off a rough two-game stretch (102 total yards, five receptions), he'll be running behind a banged-up offensive line, and he'll face a very talented Houston Texans front seven.

Still, we're eying this as a sleeper bounce-back game for Peterson for a couple of reasons. The first is that Washington will be looking to minimize Houston's pass rush with the run and short-passing game. The second is that the Redskins will likely be without receiving back Chris Thompson.

With Thompson out, Peterson is going to get a heavy workload both in the run and passing games. He also believes he's just now rounding into full playing shape.

"I'm back to bench pressing. I hadn't done that in three weeks. And so I'm back to doing the normal things that I was able to do," Peterson told reporters Wednesday. "My ankle's feeling good, my body's just feeling refreshed."

Peterson will outperform the expectations his matchup may bring.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 65 yards rushing, four receptions, 38 yards receiving, one TD

RB Jordan Howard vs. Minnesota Vikings

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While we expect Mitchell Trubisky to be a solid start against the Vikings, we don't think Bears running back Jordan Howard will be the same. There are two primary reasons for this.

The first is that Howard faces a Vikings defense that has been strong against the run most weeks. It has allowed just 88.9 yards per game on the ground, third-fewest in the NFL. Only seven teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing backs this season.

Perhaps the bigger reason, though, is the fact that Howard hasn't been as big a part of the game plan as he was last year. While he is still the primary runner—he has 137 carries to Tarik Cohen's 56—he is rarely used in the passing game.

Last week against the Detroit Lions, Howard received 12 touches, while Cohen had 13.

Cohen is the better back this week, especially in PPR formats. Howard is best left on the bench.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 42 yards rushing, one reception, eight yards receiving

RBs Doug Martin, Jalen Richard at Arizona Cardinals

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There are a couple of reasons why Oakland Raiders running backs Doug Martin and Jalen Richard don't appear to be quality fantasy starters. For one, they're sharing the backfield in Oakland. Second, the Raiders as a team have been utter trash of late.

However, the Raiders backfield has a decent fantasy matchup against an Arizona Cardinals team that allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Both Richard and Martin should be decent bye-week fill-ins this week.

Martin, who had 92 total yards last week, is the primary ball-carrier. Richard, who had five catches and 59 total yards in Week 10, has been the main pass-catcher. Value Richard over Martin in PPR leagues, and do the opposite in standard.

Neither back is going to carry your team, but both are worth a spot start during a six-team bye week.

Verdict: Start

Projection (Martin): 76 yards rushing, two receptions, 16 yards receiving, one TD

Projection (Richard): 12 yards rushing, six receptions, 68 yards receiving

RBs Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement at New Orleans Saints

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We believe both Jalen Richard and Doug Martin are safe plays in Week 11. The Philadelphia Eagles backfield duo of Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement? Not so much.

For one, Josh Adams has emerged as Philadelphia's top rushing option now that Jay Ajayi is on injured reserve. He has 108 yards rushing over his last two games, and he's averaging 5.7 yards per carry on the season. He had just 47 yards rushing last week, but that's five more yards than Smallwood and Clement had rushing and receiving combined.

Adams is the only Eagles back worth considering in Week 11, and even he isn't an appealing play.

The New Orleans Saints have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. The New Orleans run defense—which is allowing a league-low 80.1 yards per game—is solid, and teams often have to pass to race Drew Brees and Co. on the scoreboard.

You might luck into a few reception points with Clement and Smallwood, but that possibility doesn't make them worth starting.

Verdict: Sit

Projection (Smallwood): 12 yards rushing, three receptions, 28 yards receiving

Projection (Clement): 23 yards rushing, two receptions, 16 yards receiving

WR Tyler Boyd at Baltimore Ravens

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Not having A.J. Green is bad news for Andy Dalton, but it raised the value of Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd. With Green out and Tyer Eifert on injured reserve, Boyd steps into the role of No. 1 pass-catcher for Cincinnati.

This doesn't make him a high-end starter against the Ravens, of course, but he is worth a start. Over the last two games, Boyd has produced 203 yards receiving and a touchdown. He had 65 yards on just three receptions against the Saints last week.

The Ravens defense makes for a tough matchup, but it isn't a complete death sentence for fantasy receivers.

Though neither Pittsburgh Steelers receiver truly shined against the Ravens in Week 9, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster both caught at least five passes and combined for 120 yards and a touchdown. Expect Boyd to have at least half that based on role and workload alone.

Verdict: Start

Projection: five receptions, 52 yards receiving, one TD

WR Marvin Jones vs. Carolina Panthers

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Tyler Boyd has seen his role in the Bengals offense expand with A.J. Green out. Detroit Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones has also seen his role expand since the team traded Golden Tate, but we don't like him against the Carolina Panthers.

For one, Jones suffered a bone bruise in Week 10 and may not even be available. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Jones is "day-to-day" with the injury heading into the weekend.

Even if Jones can go, he'll likely be less than 100 percent.

There's also the fact that Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has struggled with consistency when Detroit cannot run the ball well. He hasn't topped 300 yards passing or two touchdowns in either of his last two games, and he's also turned the ball over three times. The Lions will struggle to run against a Panthers team that allows just 99.0 yards rushing per game.

If Stafford cannot have a good day against the Panthers, how can a banged-up Jones?

*Update: The Lions have ruled Jones out for Sunday, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: N/A

TE Jack Doyle vs. Tennessee Titans

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Indianapolis Colts tight end Eric Ebron has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2018 season, and he's emerged as a fantasy must-start. Through nine games, he's racked up 463 yards and nine touchdowns.

Ebron isn't the only capable tight end on the Indianapolis roster, though. Jack Doyle, who returned from injury in Week 8, remains a favorite target of Andrew Luck. Over his last two games, Doyle has nine receptions, 106 yards and a touchdown.

Luck will likely rely on both Ebron and Doyle against a stout Tennessee Titans defense. The Titans allow just 228.2 yards passing per game and have logged 23 sacks. They frequently pressured New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady last week, sacking him three times and forcing several early throws.

Colts head coach Frank Reich will look to nullify the pass rush by designing easy outlet throws for Luck. Doyle will be one of those outlet targets, and with safeties and linebackers focused largely on Ebron, he'll also get some open looks.

Verdict: Start

Projection: five receptions, 48 yards, one TD

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST at New Orleans Saints

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The Eagles defense hasn't been the same championship-caliber unit we saw last season, but it's at least been decent. Philadelphia has allowed 20.3 points per game (sixth in the NFL) and logged 26 sacks.

Eagles defense/special teams has been a decent streaming option at times, depending on the opponent. With five D/ST groups in the top 13 (three are tied for 11th) in fantasy scoring on bye, memories of last year's Philly defense may coax you into streaming it this week.

Don't do it.

The Saints have been one of the worst offenses for opposing D/ST units to face this season. They've averaged an NFL-high 36.7 points per game. Quarterback Drew Brees has thrown just one interception on the season.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 31 points allowed, 2 sacks

          

All rankings and fantasy statistics are courtesy of FantasyPros.

   

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