LSU QB Joe Burrow Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

College Football Week 10 Betting Guide: Odds, Picks and Value Bets

Kerry Miller

Week 10 has massive College Football Playoff implications. But while all eyes will be on the epic clashes in the SEC and Big Ten, most of your bets should be on teams from the lower-profile Group of Five conferences.

Whether you prefer over/unders, spreads or moneyline multipliers, we've got you covered with tips on the best Week 10 bets. If you're looking to throw down a wager on the latest Heisman Trophy odds, there's advice on that front as well.

We're also recommending a few games that you don't want to touch with a 10-foot pole.

After finally breaking into the win column last week, could San Jose State make it two in a row? Everyone has been talking about the 14.5-point spread in the Alabama-LSU game, but might one of the best bets of the week actually be the under in that game? And following its bye week, is there a safer bet than Memphis blowing out East Carolina?

We cover all that and more in this week's college football betting guide.

Moneyline Picks and Picks Against the Spread for AP Top 25 Games

Washington State QB Gardner Minshew II Don Feria/Associated Press

No. 1 Alabama at No. 3 LSU: Alabama (-14.5 and -580)

Louisville at No. 2 Clemson: Clemson (-38.5 and -48,000)

No. 4 Notre Dame at Northwestern: Notre Dame (-9.5 and -354)

No. 14 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan: Penn State (+10.5) and Michigan (-425)

No. 6 Georgia at No. 9 Kentucky: Kentucky (+9.5) and Georgia (-320)

No. 7 Oklahoma at Texas Tech: Texas Tech (+13.5) and Oklahoma (-500)

California at No. 8 Washington State: Washington State (-10 and -378)

Nebraska at No. 10 Ohio State: Ohio State (-18 and -800)

Missouri at No. 11 Florida: Florida (-6.5 and -235)

No. 13 West Virginia at No. 17 Texas: West Virginia (+2 and +115)

No. 15 Utah at Arizona State: Utah (-7 and -276)

No. 16 Iowa at Purdue: Iowa (+3 and +125)

Louisiana Tech at No. 18 Mississippi State: Louisiana Tech (+23.5) and Mississippi State (-1,600)

No. 19 Syracuse at Wake Forest: Syracuse (-6 and -220)

No. 20 Texas A&M at Auburn: Texas A&M (+4 and +160)

Florida State at No. 21 North Carolina State: Florida State (+9) and North Carolina State (-330)

No. 22 Boston College at Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech (+2 and +110)

No. 23 Fresno State at UNLV: Fresno State (-26 and -4,000)

No. 24 Iowa State at Kansas: Iowa State (-14.5 and -615)

Pittsburgh at No. 25 Virginia: Pittsburgh (+7 and +255)

Last Week: 8-7 straight up, 7-8 ATS

       

Temple at No. 12 UCF not included, as it was played prior to publishing.

For the moneylines, a minus means you need to bet that much in order to win $100, and a plus means a $100 bet would return that much profit.

Spreads to Bet

Georgia Southern QB Shai Werts Chris Thelen/Getty Images

Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina (+15)

App State was a cash cow in September. In all four games, the Mountaineers covered the spread and hit the over. But just as it took Vegas a few weeks to calibrate to the strength of this team, it has been slow to realize that the Mountaineers simply are not the same without star RB Jalin Moore.

Moore suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the Week 7 win over Arkansas State. Since then, the Mountaineers have barely averaged 20 points per game and 5.0 yards per playcompared to 48.4 and 7.5 in their first five games.

In its current state, this team should not be giving two touchdowns on the road against a Coastal Carolina team that is one win away from bowl eligibility. The Mountaineers will probably eke out the win—but not by three-plus possessions. Ride the Chanticleers.

           

Georgia Southern (-7.5) at Louisiana-Monroe

That's right. We're going with back-to-back Sun Belt games, and we've got a Conference USA showdown coming up next. You may not be able to find these contests on national television, but you can still profit from them.

Georgia Southern (7-1 overall; 7-1 ATS) smashed Appalachian State last Thursday with one of the best rushing attacks in the nation. The Eagles ran for 277 yards and three touchdowns, which is almost exactly what they're averaging for the season275.8 and 3.1, respectively.

This week, Shai Werts and Co. get to destroy a Louisiana-Monroe (4-4 overall; 2-6 ATS) defense that has allowed 239.5 rushing yards and 3.2 rushing touchdowns over its last six games. And the Warhawks won't have the offense to make up for it. They have been held to 21 points or fewer in five of eight games, and they are facing a defense that has held five of eight opponents to 14 points or fewer.

Add it all up and 7.5 points are not nearly enough. Georgia Southern wins by 24.

           

Florida Atlantic at Florida International (-3)

The "bettors blindly throwing money at Lane Kiffin" factor strikes again! This spread should be closer to 10, but FAU's numbers have been a bit off all year long.

Florida Atlantic is a bit of a disaster right now. Even with Devin Singletary rushing for a season-high 171 yards last week, the Owls lost at home to Louisiana Tech. The week before that, they managed just seven points in a blowout loss to Marshall. They are 1-7 against the spread this season, including losing outright as the favorite in three of their last four games.

Meanwhile, Florida International has quietly been one of the better Group of Five teams, sitting at 6-2 both overall and against the spread. Granted, the Panthers have mostly beaten up on awful teams. Their most impressive win of the season was a three-point home win over Middle Tennessee. But they are better than anyone expected and certainly better than Florida Atlantic. They deserve more than a field-goal advantage at home.

           

Last Week's Picks (2-0-1)

Florida International -3.5 at Western Kentucky (actual: FIU by 21)
Navy +24 vs. Notre Dame (actual: Notre Dame by 22)
Connecticut +5 vs. Massachusetts (actual: Massachusetts by 5)

Stay-Away Games

South Florida RB Jordan Cronkrite Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

Tulane at South Florida (-7)

If you haven't been paying much attention to either of these teams, it might be tempting to bet the farm on South Florida. Prior to getting predictably mauled at Houston last week, the Bulls were undefeated and ranked No. 21 in the AP poll. Now, they're hosting a 3-5 team and only giving a touchdown. That doesn't seem right.

However, South Florida is not to be trusted. Four of its seven wins came by a margin of eight points or fewer, and the 11-point win over Georgia Techin which the Bulls rallied from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarterwas hardly a statement of dominance. Moreover, that come-from-behind home win over the Yellow Jackets was the only one against a team with any realistic hope of playing in a bowl game.

Teams of Tulane's caliber are exactly who South Florida has been barely beating all year long. Moreover, three of Tulane's losses were by margins of four, six and seven points. This is a fair line that you shouldn't touch.

                   

Kansas State at TCU (-8)

These are two Big 12 teams in free-fall mode. Kansas State has lost four of its last five and just got obliterated by Oklahoma. TCU has lost five of six and just lost to Kansas. KSU may well do the same next week.

Not only are these teams bad, but there's no telling which version of them you'll getparticularly on defense.

Kansas State shut down Texas's offense in late September and completely stifled Oklahoma State in a 31-12 win in mid-October, but the Wildcats defense was lit up in its second, fourth, sixth and eighth games of the season against Mississippi State, West Virginia, Baylor and Oklahoma, respectively.

Similarly, TCU's defense was incredible in a late-September win over Iowa State, and it was solid in recent losses to Texas Tech and Kansas. But the Horned Frogs have also had their fair share of stinkers on D.

         

UTEP at Rice (-1)

No analysis to add here. Just wanted to make sure you knew the two worst teams in the country are facing each other this weekend and that you should keep your money as far away from this coin flip as you possibly can.

Easy Over/Unders

Syracuse QB Eric Dungey Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

Easy Over: Syracuse at Wake Forest (Over 75.5)

Syracuse and Wake Forest have each played in three games this season with at least 80 combined points, and 11 of their 16 games went over 70.

Since the season-opening 23-17 dud against Tulane, Wake Forest's games have featured an average of 74.4 points. Syracuse isn't far behind at 72.3. And the Orange should have a field day in this one, as they take the nation's seventh-highest scoring offense up against a Demon Deacons defense that ranks 118th in points allowed per game.

Last week's pick: Duke at Pittsburgh (line: 45.5; actual: 99)

              

Easy Under: Alabama at LSU (Under 54)

This Alabama offense is easily the best Nick Saban has had in his 12 years at Tuscaloosa, and this Crimson Tide defense is a little less incredible than usual. As a result, seven of Alabama's eight games have had a total of at least 64.

But when these two rivals square off, scoring doesn't happen.

Only one of the last 11 games in this series had a total that would have eclipsed this line—and just barely (55 points in 2013). The average total of those 11 games was just 34.9.

And this LSU offense is far from elite. The Tigers shocked everyone in the win over Georgia by racking up 475 yards, but they didn't even reach 375 in five of eight contestsincluding a season-worst 239 against Mississippi State two weeks ago.

LSU's defense does what other teams have made look impossible and holds Alabama to 31 points, but the Crimson Tide still win by three scores in a game that never sniffs the over.

Last week's pick: Central Michigan at Akron (line: 45; actual: 27)

Best Moneyline Value Bets

Texas Tech QB Alan Bowman Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Generally speaking, a 10-point dog that wins outright pays 3-1 on the moneyline and a 17.5-point dog will pay around 6-1, so there's a lot of value in this zone. Here are three significant underdogs who could pull off the upset and put a nice chunk of change in your pocket.

          

Texas Tech (+415) vs. Oklahoma

Here's a fun fact about the College Football Playoff rankings: In each of the last three seasons, a team ranked in the top seven of the initial Top 25 immediately lost a Week 10 road game to an unranked opponent.

Last year, it was No. 6 Ohio State getting trounced at Iowa. The year before that, No. 4 Texas A&M took an L at Mississippi State. And in 2015, No. 7 Michigan State gave up two touchdowns in the final two minutes of a one-point loss at Nebraska.

Perhaps that unlucky team is No. 4 Notre Dame at Northwestern, but who's to say No. 7 Oklahoma couldn't suffer a similar fate?

Even without that knowledge of previous Week 10 carnage, giving Texas Tech 13 points and 4-1 odds to win a home game is just ridiculous. This Red Raiders offense has been excellent when QB Alan Bowman is healthy, and the defensedespite allowing at least 40 points in four games this seasonis a great deal better than it used to be in the mid-2010s.

By no means do I believe Texas Tech is going to hold Kyler Murray and Co. under 30 points, but it could get just enough stops to win a shootout.

         

San Jose State (+425) at Wyoming

The Spartans finally got into the 2018 win column last week against UNLV.

Now, let's ride that lightning.

San Jose State has at least been competent when QB Josh Love plays. Things got ugly in games he missed against Washington State and Army, but the Spartans have averaged 32.3 points and 396.3 yards with Love under center, including a 50-spot in the win over the Rebels.

That's more than enough to at least keep things interesting against a Wyoming offense that has been held below 20 points in seven of nine games this season. In fact, the Cowboys have yet to score 20 in a home game, so both the spread and the moneyline offering in this one are bizarre. Even if you still believe SJSU to be one of the five worst teams in the country, Wyoming shouldn't ever be giving two touchdowns.

          

Louisville (+16,000) at Clemson

One of the best lines from The Office is when Kevin Malone says: "If anyone gives you 10,000-1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude."

I live by a similar motto with college football: If anyone gives you better than 150-1 on the outcome of a conference game, you take it.

Clemson should annihilate Louisville. The Tigers have outscored their last three opponents 163-20, and five of Louisville's six losses were by at least a three-possession margin. Travis Etienne could run for 250 yards and four touchdowns in this game without breaking a sweat.

But put a small bet on Louisville to win anyway, because wildly unpredictable things happen in this sport all the time. With this line, a $6.25 wager would pay $1,000 if the Cardinals pull off a stunner.

Noteworthy Line Movement

Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney Mark Wallheiser/Associated Press

Louisville at Clemson (-37 to -39)

When this line was posted Sunday afternoon, a lot of people on Twitter were losing their minds about the magnitude of that number. But my immediate response was: That's probably still not enough.

As expected, the spread only grew wider. Some books have even gone as high as 40, but it seems we'll be settling on 39, give or take half a point.

Over the past three games, though, Clemson's scoring margin was 143 points while Louisville's was negative-74. This spread could be put at 50 and it would still be a little tempting. It's just a question of how badly the Tigers want to pour it on in garbage time.

         

Nebraska at Ohio State (-22.5 to -18)

After a brutal 0-6 start, Nebraska has won two in a row. And evidently last week's 45-9 win over Bethune-Cookman inspired a lot of money to come in on the Cornhuskers against the Buckeyes.

That's hard to understand why, though. Nebraska's secondary is nothing special, allowing 272 passing yards per game. Dwayne Haskins should have another field day in this one. And one would have to believe Ohio State is going to come out with something to prove in its first game after a disastrous loss to Purdue.

Moreover, the Buckeyes have annihilated Nebraska in each of the past two years, including a 62-3 win when Nebraska was ranked No. 9 in the 2016 AP poll. This Ohio State team isn't as good as that one was, but the same can be said about Nebraska.

    

UCLA at Oregon (-13 to -7.5 to -10)

Between Oregon QB Justin Herbert in concussion protocol and the sideshow of Chip Kelly returning to Eugene as an enemy, this line has been all over the place this week. I would've made it the top stay-away game, but it just fit better in this section.

The Ducks need to get back on track after dreadful first-half performances the past two weeks, but who knows what to expect from these two teams right now? (Or any Pac-12 team, for that matter?)

If Herbert is ruled a full participant, expect the line to creep back up to two touchdowns before kickoff. If he's ruled out, however, don't be surprised if this drops all the way down to a pick'em.

Heisman Bet of the Week: Tua Tagovailoa (-275)

Tua Tagovailoa Wade Payne/Associated Press

If you took my advice the past two weeks, you've got slips for Kyler Murray (was +350; now +333), Travis Etienne (was +5000; now +1600) and Trevor Lawrence (was +5000; now +4000) at better odds than they are currently listed.

But now it's time for a big bet on the favorite: Tua Tagovailoa.

Tagovailoa is listed at -275, per OddsShark, which is roughly where it has been for the past several weeks. That number is likely to balloon to -1000 or -2000 after this Saturday, though, so this is probably your last chance to get him at a reasonable price.

According to the OddsShark Heisman odds tracker, in each of the past two seasons, this time of the season has been where we pass the point of no return (on investment) with the Heisman front-runners. Last year, Baker Mayfield was at +750 on Oct. 30 and flew to -2000 by Nov. 13. The year prior, Lamar Jackson was -300 on Nov. 1 and vaulted to -2,000 one week later.

And this is the "go big or go home" moment for Tagovailoa.

The "Alabama hasn't played anybody" refrain has a fair (albeit annoying) point. Alabama has only faced one opponent that ranks among the top 60 in yards allowed per game. (Tagovailoa still threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns against that Texas A&M defense.) But that argument will be dead and buried if he torches No. 3 LSU. The Heisman voters might as well just give him the stiff-armed trophy during the postgame press conference if that happens.

Heck, even if he's just OK in a win, it'll likely be enough for Tagovailoa to become more of an overwhelming favorite than he already is. And if you're worried about losing this bet if Alabama loses the game, hedge it with an LSU moneyline bet (+480).

Lock of the Week: Memphis (-13) at East Carolina

Memphis RB Darrell Henderson Joe Murphy/Getty Images

Memphis (-13) at East Carolina

It has been tough sledding for Memphis lately.

The Tigers have lost three of their last four, and the exception was a home game against lowly Connecticut. The defensewhich looked solid for the first three weeks of the seasonhas allowed at least 31 points and 460 yards in four of the last five. Their most recent game was the worst of the bunch, getting absolutely drilled in a 65-33 loss to Missouri.

Luckily for us, that's why Memphis is only giving 13 points in a game it should win by 27.

As bad as Memphis has looked lately, it generally destroys bad teams. In each of the Tigers' four wins this seasonMercer, Georgia State, South Alabama and Connecticutthey scored at least 52 points and won by a margin of at least 17. On average, they scored 58.0 and won by 36.8.

And East Carolina surely qualifies as a bad team.

Despite outgaining both Houston and UCF in total yards, the Pirates have lost each of their last three games by at least 22 points. They just can't seem to stop shooting themselves in the foot, currently ranking dead last nationally in average turnover margin at minus-1.7 per game. In their last two games alone, they coughed up the ball nine times while forcing no turnovers.

Memphis will prey on that weakness, and it will turn most of its possessions into points. The Tigers have a rushing attack that has averaged 346 yards and 4.3 touchdowns in wins this season. Meanwhile, East Carolina allowed more than 300 rushing yards to a McKenzie Milton-less UCF team in its last game.

Following a bye week, Memphis running back Darrell Henderson returns from the injury that forced him out of the loss to Missouri and runs rampant over the Pirates en route to a blowout win.

Last week's lock: Texas A&M +2 at Mississippi State (Actual: Nick Fitzgerald snapped out of his four-game slump and led Mississippi State to a 15-point win.)

                                  

All moneylines, spreads and over/under totals are via OddsShark and are current through noon ET on Thursday. 

Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.

   

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