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Remaining Games That Will Have the Biggest Impact on College Football Playoff

David Kenyon

When the calendar turns to November, every regular-season game has College Football Playoff implications for contenders. Some, still, are more impactful than others.

In Week 10 alone, the SEC features a pair of clashes between Top 11 teams. Alabama is the only unbeaten squad, but LSU, Georgia and Kentucky all hold 7-1 records. The results of those two showdowns will determine the league's remaining title hopes.

The picture is clearer for every other Power Five conferenceplus Notre Dameso it's a matter of survival.

Given the rash of upsets recently, no opponent should be taken lightly. It's possible some of the programs fall out of contention earlier after an unexpected loss. But all of the remaining one- and zero-loss teams have a marquee regular-season matchup left to play.

And often, it's with each other.

Note: We love you, Group of Five schools. However, any of UCF, Houston, Utah State and Fresno State would need a minor miracle to actually be in the conversation.

Nov. 3: Georgia at Kentucky

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Georgia has long been considered a front-runner, but Kentucky also has a path to the College Football Playoff.

Kentucky!

Both programs enter the Week 10 showdown in Lexington at 7-1 overall, including a 5-1 record in the SEC. As a result of tiebreaker rules eliminating Florida, the winner will clinch the East Division crown.

From there, it's a matter of that 8-1 squad navigating a relatively friendly closing stretch. Georgia hosts Auburn, UMass and Georgia Tech, while Kentucky has trips to Tennessee and Louisville on either side of a home date with Middle Tennessee.

Regardless of whether Alabama or LSU emerges from the West, an 11-1 East Division champion could seal a CFP spot with a victory in the SEC Championship Game.

Nov. 3: Alabama at LSU

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Since the national championship victory to cap the 2011 season, Alabama has owned this series. In fact, LSU hasn't scored more than 17 points at any point during this seven-game losing streak.

Will the Tigers snap either trend Saturday?

LSU has outplayed its projection so far, largely thanks to a defense surrendering the seventh-fewest points per game in the country. However, the Tigers probably won't be able to contain Tua Tagovailoa and the nation's highest-scoring offense.

So, the pressure is on Joe Burrow and LSU's scoring attack to keep up. If that happens, the Tigers will improve to 8-1 with Arkansas, Rice, Texas A&M and the SEC East winner in the way of a CFP berth.

Otherwise, Alabama will clinch the West. If the Crimson Tide end the regular season 12-0, the result of the SEC Championship Game probably wouldn't keep them out of the playoff.

Nov. 10: Clemson at Boston College

Mark Wallheiser/Associated Press

Clemson finds itself in a similar position to Alabama. Dabo Swinney's club has emerged on a tier steadily above the rest of the nation, so a loss wouldn't doom the 8-0 Tigers.

But it's unlikely the ACC power falls twice unless its last remaining road contestat Boston Collegeis a loss.

While the Eagles are 6-2, they're 5-0 in Chestnut Hill with a 24.6-point average margin of victory this season. The defense's 4.36 yards allowed per snap at home is the 12th-best clip in the nation.

Clemson's other games include Louisville, Duke and South Carolina. Each of those programs would need every perfect break possible to stun the Tigers in front of their raucous crowd.

Defeating BC would clinch the Atlantic Division and position Clemson to collect its fourth straight CFP bid.

Nov. 23: Oklahoma at West Virginia

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Following the loss to Oklahoma State, Texas remains in the Big 12 chase but is almost eliminated from the CFP conversation. The Longhorns must finish 10-2which would include a win against West Virginiaand hope their opponent in the Big 12 Championship Game only has one loss to even have an argument.

However, a victory over West Virginia would hand the Mountaineers their second loss of the campaign. Longhorns fans, you are also rooting for Oklahoma to keep winning.

Have fun with that!

The Sooners, owners of three straight Big 12 titles, are 7-1 entering November. Road trips to Texas Tech and WVU bookend home clashes with Oklahoma State and Kansas. That's a doable slate for OU.

But if the Mountaineers survive a closing stretch of (at) Texas, TCU, (at) Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, they'll absolutely have CFP potential at stake in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Nov. 23: Washington at Washington State

Young Kwak/Associated Press

Regardless of whether you trust Washington State to reach the Apple Cup at 10-1, the Cougars stand at 7-1 nonetheless. Victories over Utah, Oregon and Stanford are all quality wins for a CFP contender.

The Cougs, though, have no margin for error.

Considering the recent skid against Washington, that's a problem. The Huskies have celebrated five consecutive wins in the series, outscoring Wazzu 189-71 during that span. Mike Leach's high-powered offense needs to actually show up this year.

And hey! So far, so good. Washington State is tied for 12th nationally at 40.8 points per game. Still, UW boasts the eighth-best mark defensively, ceding an average of just 15.2.

Even if the Cougs aren't the favorite, they have a chance. And at this point, it's more than approximately 118 other teams can say.

Nov. 24: Notre Dame at USC

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Perception is critical for Notre Dame.

Given the shrinking group of legitimate contenders, the Fighting Irish might be able to afford one regular-season loss. But if they lose the finale at USC, the narrative gets interesting.

One popular phrase you'll hear is the "13th data point," a reference to conference championship games. Notre Dame, because it's an independent in football, will play no more than 12 games before the CFP committee reaches its final decision.

As long as Notre Dame is 10-1 or 11-0 when heading to USC, a season-ending victory should secure a place in the playoff and quiet most conversations about whether the Irish are deserving.

Nov. 24: Michigan at Ohio State

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Michigan's revenge tour is a fun storyline.

"Me personally, I wanted our lunch money back and I wanted them to pay interest," said star defensive end Chase Winovich, per Nick Baumgardner of the Detroit Free Press.

The 7-1 Wolverines are halfway there, having defeated Wisconsin and Michigan State. For that revenge tour to have CFP value at Ohio State, U-M must topple Penn State and then avoid an upset loss to Rutgers and Indiana prior to the season-ending clash in Columbus.

Urban Meyer's team has a relatively similar outlook, holding a 7-1 mark with upcoming contests against Nebraska, Michigan State and Maryland. MSU has regularly frustrated the Buckeyes since 2010, but Ohio State could set up a showdown between 10-1 teams.

The winner takes the Big Ten East. And a victory in the conference championship would be worth a CFP spot.

   

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