Every offseason is built on hope. Even teams coming off losing campaigns can run their eyes down the list of available free agents and dream.  

Let's get real, though. Many clubs will sign albatross contracts this winter or whiff on the talent they sorely needed. 

With that in mind, let's examine one harsh reality each franchise will face in 2018-19 free agency.

It might be a budget crunch, a rebuilder's conundrum, a linchpin free agent who's likely to sign elsewhere or a player with a potentially landscape-altering option (cough, Clayton Kershaw). 

In every case, it's an eventuality that will impact the team in question and perhaps have a ripple effect across all of MLB.

American League East

Baltimore Orioles: They can't spend much, but they need pitching

The Baltimore Orioles finished with an abysmal 47-115 record, the worst in baseball. In related news, their starting pitchers finished last in the game with a 5.48 ERA.

So there's the rub. The O's are rebuilding and shouldn't hand out any expensive long-term deals. Yet they need pitching, desperately, and don't have many MLB-ready arms percolating in the minors.

Time to shop from the bargain shelf for an inexpensive innings-eater such as veteran James Shields.

Get used to it, Baltimore. It's gonna get worse before it gets better.

Boston Red Sox: It's time to let Craig Kimbrel go

Closer Craig Kimbrel has been an All-Star in each of his three seasons with the Boston Red Sox and, despite some hiccups, pitched high-leverage innings in the 2018 postseason. His flaming beard and distinctive delivery are a part of the Red Sox's identity.

That said, unless he's willing to offer a discount to stay in Beantown (spoiler alert: he isn't), Boston should let him walk.

As the most decorated closer on the free-agent market, Kimbrel will surely command a lucrative multiyear deal. He might try to break the per-season reliever pay record set by Wade Davis and the Colorado Rockies last winter. 

Kimbrel turns 31 in May. Overpaying closers for their waning years rarely pans out, and there are experienced, less expensive late-inning relievers available, including David Robertson. 

New York Yankees: They probably need to overpay for Patrick Corbin

The New York Yankees set the all-time single-season record for home runs by a team. They were also bounced in the division series by Boston, in part because of a lack of top-shelf starting pitching.

In their four-game ALDS loss to Boston, no Yankees starting pitcher lasted more than five innings. Other than Masahiro Tanaka, no starter lasted more than three.  The Yanks will be on the hunt for an ace this winter to supplement talented-but-mercurial right-hander Luis Severino. 

It's fun to speculate on the possibility of a blockbuster trade for an arm such as the San Francisco Giants' Madison Bumgarner. More realistically, however, New York will need to open its wallet wide and overpay for Patrick Corbin, the top free-agent arm.

Corbin is coming off a career year, had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and turns 30 next July. Signing him is risky, but the win-now Yankees might not have a choice. 

Tampa Bay Rays: They'll once again be small fish in a deep free-agent pool

The Tampa Bay Rays sold at the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline, shipping out key assets like right-hander Chris Archer. 

Then, they won 90 games anyway.

The small-market Rays have a path to contention in 2019, though they'll be looking up at the powerful Yankees and Red Sox in the division. 

Unfortunately, despite their surprise success last year, the Rays are perennial payroll underdogs. They simply don't have the resources to ink any big names. Instead, they'll hope for more excellence from possible American League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and cross their fingers for a few cheap, diamond-in-the-rough signings.

Toronto Blue Jays: It's time to embrace a rebuild and avoid big contracts

The Toronto Blue Jays' recent run of success officially came to an end in 2018.

The Jays traded oft-injured superstar Josh Donaldson to the Cleveland Indians before the waiver deadline for a pittance. They finished 73-89 and were spared last place only by the even more woeful Orioles.

They should let their impending free agents, including right-hander Marco Estrada, go and eschew any major signings. 

It'll mean some more painful losing seasons, but at least Toronto fans can look forward to the arrival of future star Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

American League Central

Chicago White Sox: They've got to trust their young talent and resist any flashy signings

The Chicago White Sox lost 100 games in 2018. They also lost prized, hard-throwing young right-hander Michael Kopech to Tommy John surgery.

Time to panic and spend a bunch of money? No.

The ChiSox have stockpiled a lot of up-and-coming talent. Some of it has reached the majors (infielder Yoan Moncada); some is still marinating in the minors (outfielder Eloy Jimenez).

Maybe the rebuild is coming along more slowly than South Side fans and management hoped, but they need to exercise patience and trust the process.

Eventually, the wins will follow.

Cleveland Indians: It's time to let Andrew Miller and Cody Allen go

The Cleveland Indians have won three straight division titles, and they owe some of that success to a deep, versatile bullpen. This winter, two significant pieces of that bullpen are free agents.

Closer Cody Allen and super setup man Andrew Miller carried the Tribe to Game 7 of the World Series in 2016. Since then, both have suffered injuries and underperformance perhaps stemming from overuse. 

In 2018, Miller was limited to 34 regular-season innings and his ERA ballooned to 4.24. Allen logged more innings (67) but posted a higher ERA (4.70).

A rebound by either or both pitchers is possible. But the budget-conscious Indians should let another team take that gamble and revamp their 'pen with less costly, lower-risk arms while passing ninth-inning duties to left-hander Brad Hand.

Detroit Tigers: They'll be sitting on the free-agency sidelines

Sorry, Detroit Tigers fans, but you knew this was coming.

The Tigers are in the midst of a rebuild. They should spend this winter selling any bankable assets for prospects and resist signing any sizable checks. 

Yes, the AL Central is a soft division. It might be tempting to hope Miguel Cabrera sips from the fountain of youth and could join forces with a younger star like Bryce Harper to suddenly carry the club back...except no.

That's not happening. Rebuilds are tedious, but there's a road map. For Detroit, it doesn't involve spending in 2019.

Kansas City Royals: They'll also be sitting on the free-agency sidelines

Sorry, Kansas City Royals fans, you knew this was coming.

The Royals have finally embraced an overdue rebuild. They should sell any bankable assets and...well. You get the idea.

One other note: K.C. traded third baseman Mike Moustakas to the Milwaukee Brewers at the deadline after inexplicably re-signing him last winter. He'll be a free agent again this season.

He was a huge part of the Royals' magical 2014-15 run and for that he's a fan favorite. Seriously, though, don't even think about it.

Minnesota Twins: It's time to let Joe Mauer go

Joe Mauer has made six All-Star teams and won the 2009 AL MVP Award in his 15-year career with the Minnesota Twins.

"He is beyond a wonderful representative of the Twins," new Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli said, per Dane Mizutani of the Pioneer Press. "He is the Twins."

Correction, he was the Twins. Mauer was a great player. He's also entering his age-36 season. The Twins need to look forward, not back after a season in which they backslid from a 2017 playoff berth and finished below .500.

Maybe Mauer will retire and make their decision easy. If he doesn't, the Twinkies should move on.

American League West

Houston Astros: It's time to let Dallas Keuchel go

Other than Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel is probably the shiniest starting pitcher on the market. The lefty will net a large, long-term deal after eclipsing 200 innings and posting a 3.74 ERA.

That said, the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner surrendered an MLB-leading 211 hits. He turns 31 in January.

The Astros are in win-now mode and want to return to the pinnacle after losing in the American League Championship Series to Boston.

Opening the vault for Keuchel could cripple their budget going forward, however, and they already have ace-level starters in Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, with top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley knocking on the door.

It's been a great run for Keuchel and Houston, but the 'Stros should spread that money around to fill holes at catcher, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation.

Oakland Athletics: Their surprise 2018 run won't magically increase the budget

The Oakland Athletics shocked the baseball world with a 97-win season and unexpected wild-card berth. It was the latest chapter in executive Billy Beane and Co.'s magical Moneyball story.

This winter, A's fans would surely love to see the team loosen the purse strings and acquire a flashy free agent or two. They also surely know that isn't going to happen.

The A's ranked 28th in payroll in 2018, per Spotrac. That ranking might rise slightly in 2019 but not nearly enough to lure any marquee players to the East Bay.

Instead, Beane and the gang must play their small-market tricks once again.

Los Angeles Angels: The Garrett Richards era is over

Garrett Richards was on the edge of being an ace. He seemed to take the leap in 2015, when he posted a 3.65 ERA in 207.1 innings for the Los Angeles Angels.

Since then, a series of injuries have hobbled his career. In 2018, he appeared in 16 games before undergoing Tommy John surgery in July.

Someone will take a flier on him as he enters his age-31 season and hope for a successful recovery, but it shouldn't be the Angels.

They have enough questions to answer—including the future of superstar Mike Trout—without adding Richards' ongoing tribulations back into the mix.

Seattle Mariners: It's (probably) time to let Nelson Cruz go

The Seattle Mariners missed the playoffs for the 17th straight season in 2018, the longest active drought in baseball. General manager Jerry Dipoto's job should be on the line.

As the M's reshuffle this winter, they'll need to make a decision on designated hitter Nelson Cruz.

Cruz clubbed 37 homers with an .850 OPS. He wasn't part of the problem. He's 38 years old, however, and any long-term contract could spell disaster for Seattle if his performance craters. 

Instead, the Mariners should extend Cruz the qualifying offer. Maybe he'll accept, in which case they get him for one more year. If he declines, they get draft-pick compensation and can shop around for a younger power bat.

Texas Rangers: Adrian Beltre doesn't fit the plans

As with Joe Mauer and the Twins, Adrian Beltre might retire and make the Texas Rangers' choice simple.

If Beltre opts to play one more year, the Rangers need to cast aside their understandably warm memories of his contributions and let him sign elsewhere.

Beltre is a likely Hall of Famer who has done great things in Arlington. And he could be a productive player in his age-40 season. But his role should be as a part-time veteran leader on a club with plans to contend (say, the Philadelphia Phillies).

The Rangers, meanwhile, are bottom feeders in the AL West and need to sell, stockpile prospects and gaze squarely toward the future. 

National League East

Atlanta Braves: Nick Markakis will probably be overpriced

Nick Markakis made his first All-Star team in 2018 at age 34. On an Atlanta Braves team that was mostly about burgeoning young stars, he was a cool veteran story.

Should the Braves bring him back? That's a trickier question.

Markakis hit .297 with an .806 OPS and played in all 162 regular-season games. He'll rightly seek a multiyear deal. 

Atlanta, meanwhile, needs to address holes behind the plate and in the pitching staff as it seeks to defend its NL East title. A possible qualifying offer and a thanks for your service makes the most sense with Markakis.

Miami Marlins: All free agents of note will take a hard pass

The Miami Marlins spent last winter tearing the team down. Giancarlo Stanton went and bashed home runs for the Yankees. Christian Yelich put together a potential MVP season with the Brewers. Etc.

Miami will make a few ancillary signings this offseason to plug holes as it waits/hopes for its young talent to rise. But no free agent with any designs on winning or any chance to make headlines will give the Fish the time of day. 

Such is the current, dreary state of baseball in South Beach.

New York Mets: It's time to embrace a rebuild and avoid big contracts

See if this sounds familiar: The New York Mets starting rotation was beset by injuries, their offense didn't do enough to pick up the slack and they finished under .500.

It's becoming an all-too-familiar refrain in Queens. It's time to pull the plug.

Much as Mets fans may protest, the team should put all of its assets up to and including ace Jacob deGrom on the trading block and avoid any major signings. 

It's been a fast, hard fall for a team that won the NL pennant in 2015. But it's reality.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Bryce Harper/Manny Machado rumors are almost certainly a fantasy

In September, sources told Fancred Sports' Jon Heyman that the Philadelphia Phillies might sign infielder Manny Machado and outfielder Bryce Harper.

That'd be the two biggest position players on this winter's market and two of the most brash, talented young players in the game.

You can forgive Phillies fans for drooling.

Back in reality, the chances of this happening are vanishingly small. Both players will try to top the $300-plus million contract Giancarlo Stanton signed with the Marlins in 2014. 

Yes, the Phillies have payroll flexibility. But adding Machado and Harper would virtually negate their ability to address other needs via free agency. And that's assuming Manny and Bryce would want to join forces and share the spotlight in Philly rather than going to bigger markets.

Washington Nationals: Re-signing Bryce Harper is probably a bad idea

Speaking of Harper, the Washington Nationals are in the running to retain their superstar's services.

"Of course he's in our plans. He's a guy we would love to have," said general manager Mike Rizzo, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. "He's a part of our family."

That's a fine sentiment. It's possible Harper will re-up with the only club he's ever known.

He and superagent Scott Boras won't give Washington a discount, however. The Nats would need to spend most of their available capital to retain Harper. They had him in 2018 and missed the postseason.

They also have an heir apparent in 20-year-old outfielder Juan Soto, who posted a .923 OPS in 116 games.

The money Washington would pay Harper could be better spent to add pitching and position-player depth. His time in D.C. was undeniably memorable, but it should now come to an end. 

National League Central

Chicago Cubs: Cole Hamels will cost too much

Cole Hamels injected life into the Chicago Cubs after a summer trade from the Rangers. In 12 starts with the Cubbies, the veteran left-hander posted a 2.36 ERA.

Chicago wound up losing to the Colorado Rockies in the NL Wild Card Game and will be looking for pitching this winter.

Hamels has a $20 million option for 2019. According to Heyman, the Cubs "will surely pick [it] up." That's informed speculation at this point. But if Chicago declines the option and goes for a $6 million buyout and then pursues Hamels in free agency, he'd probably cost even more.

No matter what, there's a high chance he'll be overpaid. Good as he was during his brief stint with the Cubs, Hamels posted a 4.72 ERA and 5.20 FIP during his time with Texas in 2018 and turns 35 in December. Those are what you call red flags.

Cincinnati Reds: Matt Harvey makes no sense

The Cincinnati Reds made a weird trade for former Mets right-hander Matt Harvey in May, and it weirdly sort of worked out. 

After battling injuries and off-field issues with the Mets, Harvey enjoyed modest success with the Reds. A 7-7 record and 4.50 ERA are nothing to crow about, but it was something.

Cincinnati probably could have flipped him for a prospect or two at the trade deadline but instead held on to him and finished in last place. Another weird decision.

Now, the rebuilding Reds should stop the weirdness and end this experiment. A pitcher with baggage entering his age-30 season is not the droid they're looking for.

Milwaukee Brewers: Wade Miley will cost too much

After marching to Game 7 of the National League Championship Series, the Brewers will be buyers this winter.

Among their impending free agents, they might be tempted to bring back Wade Miley, who posted a 2.57 ERA in 16 regular-season starts and a 1.23 ERA in 14.2 postseason frames.

On a cheap, one-year deal? Sure. If Miley is demanding multiple years and higher dollars, however, the Brew Crew should look elsewhere.

Entering this season, Miley hadn't put up a sub-4.00 ERA since 2013. He'll be 32 in November. The Brewers don't have bottomless pockets and need to be smart now that they've reopened their contending window. 

Pittsburgh Pirates: It's time to bid adieu to Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer

The Pittsburgh Pirates sold last offseason, shipping out ace Gerrit Cole and outfielder Andrew McCutchen. Then, they bought at the trade deadline, acquiring Chris Archer from Tampa Bay.

Their course for 2019 is unclear, but they should say goodbye to a couple of longstanding infielders in Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer.

Harrison was an All-Star as recently as 2017 but slashed an anemic .250/.293/.363 in 2018. Mercer barely fared better at .251/.315/.381. Both are on the wrong side of 30.

They're lifetime Pirates who were part of the team's not-so-distant playoff forays, but the Bucs should sail on without them.

St. Louis Cardinals: Bud Norris isn't worth closer money

Bud Norris saved a career-high 28 games for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2018 and struck out 67 in 57.2 innings. The Cards might consider targeting him as a late-inning option this winter.

They shouldn't.

Norris' 3.99 FIP was considerably higher than his 3.59 ERA in 2018, and he gave up 1.2 home runs per nine innings. Previously, he hadn't posted an ERA below 4.00 since 2014.

As a journeyman swingman on a modest deal? Fine. For anything approaching closer money? No way.

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks: Patrick Corbin will be too expensive

The Arizona Diamondbacks missed the playoffs in 2018 after advancing to the division series as a wild-card entrant in 2017.

Now, they're likely to lose their ace.

We already discussed Corbin's career year and how deep-pocketed suitors like the Yankees will come calling. Yeah, the Diamondbacks handed a gargantuan contract to Zack Greinke prior to the 2016 season. They could do it again.

More likely, though, the money owed to Greinke will prohibit the Snakes from retaining Corbin, since they also have to make a decision on free-agent center fielder A.J. Pollock and might need more than one starter to fill out their rotation.

Colorado Rockies: It's time to quit spending big on relievers

We talked about Wade Davis' record contract with Colorado. What did the Rockies get for the money? An NL-leading 43 saves, yes, but also a 4.13 ERA.

It's almost like Coors Field is where good pitchers go to be less good.

That's not to say Colorado should quit signing arms. But massive, all-their-eggs-in-one-basket deals for relief pitchers are not a winning strategy. Relievers are notoriously unreliable year-to-year anywhere. In the Mile High air? Eesh. 

The larger priority for Colorado is the outfield, where Carlos Gonzalez will be a free agent and Gerardo Parra could be one if the Rockies don't exercise his option.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw will be too expensive...and must be re-signed

Clayton Kershaw is almost certainly going to opt out of his contract this winter and try to sign a new one. If and when he does, he'll draw some interest to say the least.

If so, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be faced with the mother of all conundrums: Toss untold years and dollars at an aging player who has fallen victim to injuries and occasional underperformance (by his lofty standards), or let the face of the franchise and the greatest pitcher of his generation go?

The answer is obvious. The Dodgers have to keep Kershaw in L.A. The three-time NL Cy Young Award winner and one-time NL MVP cannot wear another uniform. 

But even with their robust payroll, the Dodgers could regret inking Kershaw into his late 30s, especially in light of the back and biceps problems that have sapped his greatness. 

Sometimes, you bite the bullet and pay a player for what he did, not what he will do. This is one of those times.

San Diego Padres: More big contracts are a big no-no

Last offseason, the San Diego Padres signed first baseman Eric Hosmer to a franchise-record eight-year, $144 million contract and watched him post minus-0.1 WAR by FanGraphs' measure.

The Friars, meanwhile, predictably finished in last place.

This offseason, any massive contracts are off limits. Forget Machado, forget Harper, forget 'em all.

Instead, San Diego's focus should be on bolstering a farm system that's already No. 1 in the game, according to Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter, and biding its time.

San Francisco Giants: A few veteran additions won't right the ship

Last winter, the San Francisco Giants added veteran pieces such as Andrew McCutchen and third baseman Evan Longoria and crossed their fingers for one more even-year run.

They finished 73-89 and fired GM Bobby Evans. It's time for a new strategy. 

Adding ancillary pieces via trade and free agency and building around the core that won them titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014 has been the Giants' M.O. for a while now. With catcher Buster Posey, lefty Madison Bumgarner (assuming they exercise his affordable option), shortstop Brandon Crawford et al on board, they might try it one more time.

What they should do is sell any players they can, buttress a ho-hum farm system and accept that the dynasty is over. What they will do is another matter.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.