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NBA Rookies Already Outperforming Their 2018 Draft Spots

Jonathan Wasserman

A handful of NBA rookies have outperformed their draft positions, either by outproducing players selected before them or earning spots in their rotations over veterans on the rosters.

They've each looked like solid fits and picks based on who else was available. And while the focus is still on their long-term potential, these rookies are contributing now on cheap deals, providing immediate values.

Figure the top-four picks—Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr.—are matching their expectations. Others like Mohamed Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. have played well, but not to the point where they've outperformed relative to previous top-10 picks.

Honorary Mention: Allonzo Trier, New York Knicks SG

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Key early stats: 8.0 PPG, 37.5 3PT%

The New York Knicks appeared to take a big step forward as a franchise when they drafted Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson. But Allonzo Trier has been their most valuable rookie.

After he was passed on 60 times in June, Trier began rebuilding his image during summer league, training camp and preseason. And now he's both a rotation player and potential key piece of a young Knicks core.

He's given New York an additional source of offense off its bench, looking adept at creating his own shot, which has earned him a relatively green light from coach David Fizdale.

Given his scoring-dependent, isolation-heavy game, Trier will be a hit-or-miss player all season. But any of those hit games should be considered bonuses for the Knicks, who added the Arizona product without using a draft pick.

   

Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports and NBA.com unless otherwise noted.

Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks PG

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Key early stats: 19.8 PPG, 6.8 APG, 2.4 3PTM

The draft's No. 5 pick, Trae Young leads all rookies in scoring and assists.

Just five games in, we've already seen his signature, microwave shot-making result in a Young takeover performance, similar to the ones he authored at Oklahoma.

He erupted for 35 points (including six threes) and 11 assists in a road win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Oct. 21.

Despite limited athleticism, length and strength that raised doubt over his ability to cleanly separate and convert, Young is averaging more points per possession out of isolation (1.2), as well as more isolation possessions per game (3.0), than Donovan Mitchell, CJ McCollum, Kyrie Irving, Lou Williams, Victor Oladipo, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker and Bradley Beal.

His off-the-dribble scoring is working early, an encouraging sign regarding Young's potential, given how much of it is tied to his ability to succeed using skill over tools and explosion.

There is also the idea that he's suited for an NBA with more space and talent. So far, Young is getting 8.2 open jumpers per game when the defender is farther than four feet away. At Oklahoma, he only took 21 unguarded jumpers in the half court all season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Los Angeles Clippers PG/SG

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Key early stats: 8.8 PPG, 3.0 APG, 48.4 FG%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has quickly played his way into the Los Angeles Clippers rotation, averaging more points per game than veteran starters Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley.

Even without an explosive burst, he's getting to the basket off his change of speed and direction, averaging 9.0 drives in 26.1 minutes per game. He is flashing glimpses of crafty scoring improvisation in the paint as well as an improving pull-up (42.9 percent) and savvy passing.

As a shooter, he's sticking to the same script as he did in college, only taking open threes in rhythm. He's attempted four in five games, though he's made two and always appears competent when letting it go.

Because he also causes problems defensively with his length and quick hands and feet, Gilgeous-Alexander gets a pass for his 2.0 turnovers per game. Early signs point to the No. 11 pick emerging as a long-term starter in L.A.

Landry Shamet, Philadelphia 76ers PG/SG

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Key early stats: 17.5 MPG, 4.2 PPG, 1.2 3PTM

After the Philadelphia 76ers drafted Landry Shamet 26th, it seemed like a long shot he'd receive playing time behind Ben Simmons, JJ Redick, Markelle Fultz, T.J. McConnell and No. 16 pick Zhaire Smith. Five games in, Shamet is averaging 17.5 minutes per contest, having earned the trust of coach Brett Brown for his shooting, ball-moving and versatility.

With Smith out because of a foot injury, Shamet has stepped right in. Shamet, who ranked as college basketball's No. 1 spot-up player a year ago (1.5 PPP, minimum 100 possessions), has fit nicely into a supporting role alongside Philadelphia's featured scorers and playmakers.

Even if his contributions have been limited, he's outperforming his late first-round spot just by giving the team minutes. Shamet hasn't been efficient, but he's making 1.2 threes per game and helping to space the floor. Other than shot-making, he also adds elements of unselfishness and basketball IQ to a rotation that's already equipped with star players.

Josh Okogie, Minnesota Timberwolves SG/SF

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Key stats: 8.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.0 3PTM

Until the combine in May, it didn't even seem likely Josh Okogie would enter the draft or generate enough interest to get picked. He's already starting games for the Minnesota Timberwolves, filling in for a banged-up Andrew Wiggins.

The No. 20 pick ranks fourth among rookies in minutes per game, earning playing time through mistakes for activity fueled by his athleticism and motor.

Okogie hasn't been efficient offensively, an expected development. But he's brought a respectable level of defensive energy while emerging as the Wolves' third-leading rebounder.

And despite too many missed shots, he's still making a three-pointer per game, remaining just threatening enough to justify his being out there in a full-time role.

Miles Bridges, Charlotte Hornets SF/PF

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Key stats: 9.3 PPG, 63.9 FG%, 43.8 3PT%

With the second-highest player efficiency rating among rookies, per RealGM, Miles Bridges is solidifying a role in the Charlotte Hornets rotation.

After playing fewer than 20 minutes during each of the team's first five games, he's totaled 56 over the past two, combining for 29 points on 12-of-19 shooting.

He's helped himself by making seven of 16 three-point attempts. Bridges' shot-making in college (2.1 threes per game in 2017-18) seems poised to carry over based on the early results and how comfortable he looks on his release.

But his two-point scoring efficiency has been the more eye-opening development. Though not the most advanced off-the-dribble shot-creator, he's gone 16-of-20 inside the arc by taking what the defense gives him and tapping into his explosiveness as a driver and finisher.

Not one Hornets forward is averaging double digits in scoring, so Bridges figures to remain in the rotation—even once his shooting percentages fall back to Earth.

Donte DiVincenzo, Milwaukee Bucks PG/SG

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Key stats: 7.7 PPG, 47.2 FG%, 1.0 3PTM

Valued for energy and versatility, Donte DiVincenzo has played at least 18 minutes in each game for the undefeated Milwaukee Bucks.

He's coming off a 15-point effort against the Orlando Magic and a nine-point, five-assist line against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

DiVincenzo's athleticism is translating to easy baskets in the open floor or off cuts and drives. And he's made at least a three in five of his six games.

The No. 17 pick has also flashed signs of defensive potential with his quickness and effort. Even with missed shots and mistakes, DiVincenzo has given the Bucks an early bench spark, which should be his calling card long-term in this league.

   

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