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Every Top NBA MVP Contender's Roadmap to Win the Hardware

Zach Buckley

The best thing about the NBA MVP race is there's no defined route.

The winner could be the player with the best stats, the best record, the best game film or the best story. It just depends on the season. And the candidates. And the voters' opinions. And a lot of things.

And that creates a situation in which it's tricky to predict the winner in any given year. But we know enough about the likely candidates and recent voting trends to form a rough sketch of what needs to happen for each contender to claim the hardware.

For 2018-19, oddsmakers have given six players MVP odds of +1,000 or lower, per OddsShark. So, we'll follow their lead and build an MVP blueprint for each of the six.

Kevin Durant: +1,000

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Two of the more common routes to the MVP probably aren't available to Kevin Durant.

Barring any injuries, the best-player-on-the-best-team distinction is tricky with two-time MVP Stephen Curry being one of four other All-Stars on the roster. And that same support likely prevents Durant from overwhelming with volume the way recent winners James Harden (scoring title), Russell Westbrook (triple-double average) and Curry (record number of threes) have.

Durant might not be a runaway winner under any of the typical criteria, so he must finish near the top in most of them. Remember, there might still be voters who feel he picked the easy route by joining the Golden State Warriors, which only makes this uphill climb even steeper.

"You know they're not gonna give me anything," Durant told 95.7 The Game at media day. "Even if it's on the fence, I have to be clear-cut better than everybody for me even to get a look."

Durant's first step toward the MVP is simple: Play at least 75 games, which he hasn't done since 2013-14. His counting categories are already limited by his supporting cast; he couldn't control the damage of a lengthy absence.

Next, he needs some type of statistical achievement to wow number-obsessed voters. A 50/40/90 shooting line where one of the categories isn't particularly close—maybe 55 percent on field goals or 43 percent from distance—might do the trick. He'd still need more numerical brilliance, though, like posting career highs in two of either rebounds, assists or blocks.

Finally, Golden State must race back to the top of the standings with 65-plus victories. That wouldn't be a massive boost on its own, but it's likely required to get Durant in the conversation.

Kawhi Leonard: +950

Mark Blinch/Getty Images

Exposure won't be an issue for Kawhi Leonard. Everyone will be watching to see how he responds to a lost season and whether the Toronto Raptors will hit the jackpot on their all-in wager.

Production shouldn't be, either, provided he's healthy. The last two times he was, he finished among the top three in MVP voting. Hopefully, this is like riding a bike. If he's back to being one of the league's best defenders and an efficient, mid-20s scorer with a modest assist average, his on-court candidacy will speak for itself.

The bigger challenge might be earning the off-court support.

Voters love a good narrative, and Leonard's could be quite compelling. Soft-spoken star finds his voice just in time to deliver his franchise the postseason success it's never achieved? Movie studios might want to take note of the possibilities here.

"His biggest challenge in Toronto may be off the court, where he has to develop a relationship with a moody point guard (Kyle Lowry), click with a first-time head coach (Nick Nurse) and make the young players around him better," Jonathan Tjarks of the Ringer wrote. "The Raptors have the pieces around Kawhi to be a title contender, but they don't have the veteran leadership the Spurs had when they won it all in 2014."

Right or wrong, Leonard will be evaluated on whether he can transform the Raptors into something greater than they've been. The funny thing is Toronto's tests won't start until the postseason, after the votes have been cast, so it'll be more about selling a perception than producing tangible results.

Put it this way: If the Raptors have the East's best record and Leonard is constantly praised by teammates for his leadership, a top-10 scorer and an obvious Defensive Player of the Year candidate, he'll have as good a shot at this hardware as anyone.

James Harden: +650

Allen Berezovsky/Getty Images

While there are more likely scenarios than James Harden defending his title, MVP repeats are more common than you might think. There have only been 12 different winners in the 18 seasons played during the 2000s, with Stephen Curry and LeBron James both repeating within the past seven seasons.

The good news for Harden is he already has the blueprint. Just look at why he received The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor's vote last season:

"Harden is Houston’s heartbeat; he makes the team’s innovative system not only function but flourish. The 28-year-old guard is having one of the most efficient high-volume scoring seasons in NBA history, averaging 30.6 points with a 62 true shooting percentage and a 54.1 effective field goal percentage. Toss in his 8.7 assists per game and he enters the stratosphere of the greatest offensive seasons in history; Michael Jordan is the only other player to drop 30 and eight with true shooting greater than 60 percent."

What about that automatically changes for Harden this season? Anything?

The shooting rates were hardly outliers from his career marks. With a scoring threat like Carmelo Anthony joining the fold, it's possible Harden even ups his efficiency. His 30.4 points were a career high, but in his first season under Mike D'Antoni, Harden put up 29.1 (plus a league-best 11.2 assists). His fit in this offense is nothing short of seamless.

But the most important number for Harden might be Houston's win total. If the Rockets match last season's tally (65), this is probably his award to lose. Public opinion says this team worsened over the summer, so he'd get a huge lift if he can carry it just as far. But even if there's slight regression—roughly 60 wins, no worse than a clear second in the West—he'll be right back in the mix.

Giannis Antetokounmpo: +500

Gary Dineen/Getty Images

Several portions of Giannis Antetokounmpo's stat sheet would suggest this isn't possible, but it's almost certain we haven't seen his best yet. Considering he's only 23 years old, that might not be coming for several seasons, but this should be the best version we've watched to date.

Some of that is due to natural development. He's added a full 10 points per game over the past two seasons while rocketing his player efficiency rating from above average (18.8) to elite (27.3) during the same stretch. Last year, he just missed joining Russell Westbrook as the only players to average 27 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in three decades.

Arguably the bigger reason to be bullish about the Milwaukee Bucks star, though, is the wealth of changes around him. An offseason focus on shooting—drafting Donte DiVincenzo, then signing Ersan Ilyasova, Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton—means Milwaukee won't finish 27th in triples again. The better they can space, the harder Antetokounmpo will be to handle.

That will be the primary focus of head coach Mike Budenholzer, who had just about everyone launching during his five years with the Atlanta Hawks.

"I think this offense is going to be perfect for [Antetokounmpo]," Khris Middleton told CBS Sports' James Herbert.

Antetokounmpo has a chance to overwhelm with volume. It isn't out of the question he wins a scoring title, finishes top 10 in rebounds and ranks among the 25 best distributors. That might be enough to get the trophy.

But for the Greek Freak to really feel good about his chances, he'll need the Bucks to crash into what most are envisioning as a three-team race in the East. If Milwaukee wins 50 games and secures a top-three seed, he could be looking at a landslide victory.

Anthony Davis: +450

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Anthony Davis is coming for the crown. And he'll say so to anyone who's listening.

"In my eyes, I'm the best player in the game," Davis told reporters in September. "I really feel that way. Nobody can tell me different."

He expressed the same sentiment to ESPN.com's Rachel Nichols the following month, then he told ESPN's Brian Windhorst that for the New Orleans Pelicans to win big, "I'm going to have to be the most dominant player."

This sounds an awful lot like the take-no-prisoners Davis we saw in the wake of DeMarcus Cousins' Achilles injury last season. And not merely the one who averaged 30.2 points, 11.9 rebounds and 3.2 blocks from that point forward, but the one responsible for the six-game stretch in which he posted ludicrous marks of 41.5 points on 54.2 percent shooting (39.1 percent from three), 15.0 boards, 3.2 blocks and 3.0 steals.

Statistical brilliance is the key to Davis' MVP hopes.

He's no longer sharing touches with an All-Star and remains in the Association's fastest offense. He'll need the kind of numbers where—like with Westbrook's triple-doubles—you almost can't believe them, even though you know they're real. Maybe a line like 30 points, 12 rebounds and 2.5 swats, which sounds attainable for Davis, but has only been compiled once in NBA history (Bob McAdoo).

If Davis' per-game contributions are appropriately preposterous, his MVP hopes will hinge on two numbers: games played and wins. He can't fall below the 75-game level he's reached the past two seasons but had never previously cleared. He also needs New Orleans to return to the playoffs. The Pelicans probably don't need to be a top-four seed—although that would help immensely—but they probably can't be No. 8, either.

LeBron James: +333

Kelvin Kuo/Associated Press

As long as LeBron James stays healthy, he should cover all bases as an MVP candidate.

His individual achievements have long been in a category of their own. It's hard enough to average 25 points, eight rebounds and eight assists, as James has the past two seasons. But who else can hit those marks and shoot 54-plus percent? No one. Literally.

Moving on to team success, James is playing without Finals-or-bust pressure for the first time in almost a decade. The Los Angeles Lakers won 35 games last season, and that was their most in five years. No one is expecting a major breakthrough.

But even then, we may have been overzealous in tempering expectations. There's a bunch of young talent on the roster, and it should all presumably play better than last year. If Brandon Ingram makes a leap and one more prospect follows his lead, this team might have 50-win potential. Hitting that mark would be a huge boon to James' MVP hopes.

Then, there's the narrative aspect. James has a couple angles nudging him ahead.

He's chasing history as we speak. Adding a fifth MVP to his collection would put him tied for second all-time with Michael Jordan and Bill Russell. James would also be the first to win the award with three different franchises, and this one would be with the Association's most glamorous team.

"He also has a chance to entirely alter the trajectory of a marquee franchise," Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal wrote. "If his efforts spark an end to Los Angeles' five-year playoff drought ... he's already experiencing success. If he turns the Lake Show into a legitimate title contender, he might as well become a shoo-in for the award."

Voter fatigue has hurt James before, but he's five years and two teams removed from his last win, so there's no reason for that to still exist. If he maintains his level of play and the Lakers look anything like what we've come to know as a typical LeBron team, he'll have to start planning a fifth MVP acceptance speech.

                   

Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.

   

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