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Predicting Each MLB Team's Biggest Controversy of the Offseason

Jacob Shafer

Like the first chilly autumn breeze, the MLB playoffs are nigh.

That's where the focus of the baseball world will be in the near-term as various contenders jostle for postseason position and then clash on the October stage.

At the same time, we can gaze ahead to the approaching winter and ask a few interesting questions. Such as: What will be each team's biggest offseason controversy?

It could be a decision on a high-caliber free agent, the fate of a manager on the hot seat or simply a choice of organizational philosophy (to sell or buy, for example). In all cases, it's something that will divide fanbases and spark inevitable chatter.

While we enjoy the 2018 stretch run, here are 30 storylines that may set teeth to gnashing in the cold months ahead.

American League East

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Baltimore Orioles: The fates of Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette

The Baltimore Orioles are wrapping up an abysmal last-place season and have initiated a full-scale rebuild. Who will lead that rebuild heading into 2019?

Manager Buck Showalter's contract is up, and he seems like an obvious sacrifice to the new-direction gods after nine years at the helm, though his exit is far from certain.

The bigger question might be the fate of executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette, whose contract also expires after the season. Ownership entrusted him to trade key pieces such as Manny Machado and Zach Britton prior to the non-waiver deadline. Will he get a chance to craft future deals, or will the Orioles reshuffle the front office? Stay tuned.

   

Boston Red Sox: The Craig Kimbrel decision

Closer Craig Kimbrel has enjoyed three stellar seasons with the Boston Red Sox. He has made a trio of All-Star teams, finished sixth in American League Cy Young Award voting in 2017 and is one of the best ninth-inning options in the game.

He's also an impending free agent and should net a lucrative long-term contract from some team. Will it be the Red Sox?

Maybe, but there are red flags. Kimbrel turned 30 in May, meaning any long-term pact would take him into his mid-30s, a time when many pitchers' skills begin to erode. And he wobbled a bit in August with a 4.50 ERA and some shaky outings.

Boston surely hopes Kimbrel can carry it deep into October, and many fans would balk at the idea of letting him go this offseason. Ultimately, though, that may be the prudent call.

   

New York Yankees: How much to spend in free agency

The New York Yankees are positioned for a wild-card berth and another postseason appearance. They're looking up at the Red Sox in the American League East, however, and could be motivated to make a big free-agent splash this offseason.

The starting rotation is the most obvious area of need, so a name like Patrick Corbin makes sense. But New York might not stop there.

These are the Yanks, after all. They've managed to stay under the luxury tax, which will rise from $195 million this season to $197 million next season and $210 million by 2021.

What about Corbin and Machado or Bryce Harper? Heck, what about Corbin, Machado and Harper? It sounds ridiculous, but New York shelled out nearly $425 million prior to the 2009 season. The Yankees won the World Series that year but also saddled themselves with cumbersome future payroll obligations.

If they loosen the purse strings again—or if they don't—expect criticism and intrigue.

   

Tampa Bay Rays: Whether to trade Blake Snell

The low-key, small-market Tampa Bay Rays aren't synonymous with controversy. They sold key pieces at the deadline, including franchise right-hander Chris Archer, and the consensus reaction was: Yep...that's the Rays.

But what if they decided to trade left-hander Blake Snell, whose 2.06 ERA and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings put him at the forefront of the AL Cy Young Award conversation?

Snell turns 26 in December and is under club control through 2022. He'd net a massive haul of prospects from any pitching-hungry contender.

Snell's name popped up in July trade rumors, though is was never clear if the Rays seriously dangled him. They could revisit the notion this offseason and bolster their farm system, but parting with a controllable ace is never popular.

   

Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the service-time conundrum

The Toronto Blue Jays are already taking heat for not giving top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a September call-up because of service-time shenanigans.

The son of Vlad has raked at all levels and hit .336 with a .978 OPS in 30 games at Triple-A. Obviously, he's ready to face MLB competition.

This controversy will ignite in the spring when the Jays make excuses about why keeping Guerrero down until mid-April makes sense from an on-field as opposed to in-the-wallet standpoint. It'll simmer this offseason, however, particularly if Toronto makes a series of stopgap signings to block Guerrero's path.

American League Central

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Chicago White Sox: Whether to trade Jose Abreu

The Chicago White Sox could be the next franchise to vault into contention behind a stable of young talent. They're also more than 30 games under .500. More young talent would be welcome.

This offseason, their most tradable asset might be first baseman Jose Abreu. The Cuban slugger and two-time All-Star isn't having his best season and is recovering from a freak injury, but his 22 home runs and .821 OPS speak to a hitter capable of impacting any lineup.

He'll be a free agent after the 2019 season. Chicago could keep him and trade him at the 2019 deadline.

Then again, Abreu's value will be higher with a full season of club control remaining.

   

Cleveland Indians: The futures of Cody Allen and Andrew Miller

Closer Cody Allen and left-handed late-innings ace Andrew Miller were indispensable to the Cleveland Indians' AL pennant win in 2016, and both were significant contributors to last season's American League Central crown.

They're both impending free agents, and they present a tough choice for the Tribe.

Miller came off the disabled list Monday, per MLB.com's Aaron Rose, but has been limited to 24 innings by hamstring, knee and shoulder injuries. Meanwhile, Allen's ERA has ballooned to 4.23.

Nostalgia and a sense of loyalty could motivate Cleveland to re-sign Miller and/or Allen, especially if either or both rekindle their old dominance in the postseason and help the Indians snap baseball's longest title drought.

They'll be an expensive, high-risk luxury, however. And it might be time for the Indians to wave goodbye, especially with deadline acquisition Brad Hand (1.74 ERA, 13.9 SO/9 in 20.2 IP with CLE) in the fold.

   

Detroit Tigers: Whether to trade Michael Fulmer

Detroit Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer landed on the disabled list with a left oblique strain July 20, torpedoing whatever trade-deadline value he had.

Fulmer has since returned to action, and while his 4.56 ERA doesn't leap off the stat sheet, he was an All-Star in 2017 and the AL Rookie of the Year in 2016.

Add the fact that he's under club control through 2022, and the 25-year-old could be part of the rebuilding Tigers' long-term plan or an appealing-yet-flawed offseason bargaining chip.

Whether Detroit chooses to keep or swap Fulmer, there will be ample room for second-guessing.

   

Kansas City Royals: The Ned Yost era

Despite a last-place finish and impending rebuild, the Kansas City Royals are planning to offer manager Ned Yost a one-year extension to a contract that expires after the season, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports.

Assuming Yost accepts, he'd enter his 10th year as Royals skipper.

His presence is a nice reminder of the 2014-15 run, when Kansas City won two AL pennants and a World Series. He also has a reputation as an old-school luddite who's expressed opposition to some of the game's innovations.

Is he the right man to lead the Royals into the future? It's a fair question.

   

Minnesota Twins: Potentially placing Paul Molitor on the hot seat

The Minnesota Twins went from a 103-loss embarrassment in 2016 to the AL's second wild card last season.

In 2018, the Twins have sunk below .500 once again and will miss the dance.

Manager Paul Molitor inked a three-year extension in October. But even after last year's impressive turnaround, there were questions about Molitor's job security. If they cropped up then, they may crop up again.

In the end, the Twinkies skipper should be back. But he may find his seat warmer than expected.

American League West

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Houston Astros: The Dallas Keuchel question

For now, the Houston Astros are focused on repeating as champions. It's a lofty, difficult goal.

This offseason, the 'Stros will be faced with a tough challenge of a different variety. They'll have to decide whether they want left-hander Dallas Keuchel to re-join Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander atop their rotation.

Keuchel is in his seventh and final contractually obligated season with Houston, the only franchise he's ever known. He's made two All-Star teams and won the AL Cy Young Award in 2015. This year, he's posted a 3.59 ERA with a more impressive 3.27 ERA after the All-Star break.

Neck and foot injuries limited him in 2017, and he'll turn 31 in January. A lucrative long-term deal would carry risk. Then again, so would letting the hirsute hurler walk away via free agency.

   

Los Angeles Angels: The future of Mike Trout

The Los Angeles Angels are at a crossroads. Manager Mike Scioscia may step down at the end of the season. Shohei Ohtani is possibly headed for Tommy John surgery.

And, once again, the Halos are on track to miss the playoffs while employing Mike Trout, the best baseball player on the planet.

The Angels have Trout through 2020. They are under no obligation to trade him before then and apparently don't want to. That said, Trout could be forgiven for not signing an extension with a team that hasn't won a playoff game with him on the roster. And the trade return at this point would be ludicrous.

Might Los Angeles at least entertain offers for Trout? Soon enough, and perhaps this offseason, it needs to consider the once unthinkable notion.

   

Oakland Athletics: Should they act like contenders?

Improbably, the Oakland Athletics are in the thick of the AL playoff race. Hats off, once again, to executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and Co.

Whether the A's make the playoffs and/or go on a deep run, they'll be confronted with a difficult quandary: Sell high and restock the farm system, or act like honest-to-goodness contenders?

If they opt for the former, it'll mean dangling pieces such as closer Blake Treinen, who would surely net a treasure trove of prospects. If it's the latter, they'll keep their pieces and spend some of their perennially limited coin on the free-agent market.

   

Seattle Mariners: Jerry Dipoto's do-or-die winter

The Seattle Mariners haven't made the playoffs in 16 years and counting. When your postseason drought is old enough to drive, it's safe to say things aren't going well.

The M's are hanging around the AL playoff chase but appear likely to fall short yet again. There's blame to go around, but plenty belongs at the feet of general manager Jerry Dipoto.

Dipoto has made his share of moves since taking over, but he's yet to assemble a roster capable of making it past Game 162.

Dipoto probably won't be on the chopping block this offseason, but the team he assembles for 2019 could decide his fate. Fans and management will be watching closely.

   

Texas Rangers: Jeff Banister's status

Fair or not, managers bear the blame for their teams' performances.

So it is with Texas Rangers skipper Jeff Banister. The Rangers are mired in last place in the American League West. It would be simple to scapegoat Banister.

Keep in mind, though, this is a guy who won AL Manager of the Year honors in 2015 and guided the Rangers to a 95-win finish in 2016.

The last couple of seasons have been rough in Arlington, but Banister ought to get a bit more leeway before calls for his ouster grow louder.

National League East

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Atlanta Braves: Whether to spend big in free agency

The Atlanta Braves were supposed to be a year or two away from contention, a young club loaded with potential but too short on experience.

Instead, they're in first place in the National League East and looking toward the playoffs.

However 2018 plays out, the Braves will be tempted to spend big in this offseason's free-agent class. Is that a wise idea?

Maybe. Atlanta ranks 23rd in payroll for 2019, per Spotrac, meaning it has financial flexibility. That said, with all the talent in the pipeline from the game's No. 2 system, do the Braves really want to tie up a bunch of money?

Depending on how close you think they are to a title, your answer will vary.

   

Miami Marlins: Will they trade J.T. Realmuto?

The Miami Marlins traded their entire starting outfield and speedy second baseman Dee Gordon last offseason. At the trade deadline, they kept catcher J.T. Realmuto.

Does that mean Realmuto, who has arguably attainted the mantle of best backstop in the game, is going to be a Marlin for the long haul?

Not necessarily.

The Fish are open for business and looking to add young talent. Realmuto and his 20 homers and .856 OPS won't come cheap. He's 27 years old and controllable through 2020.

You can make a case for the Marlins to keep him and build around him, just as you can make a case for a contender to surrender multiple top prospects for his services.

   

New York Mets: Whether to blow up the starting rotation

Another year, another disappointment for the New York Mets. Is it time for the Queens contingent to blow up its vaunted starting rotation and start fresh?

That would include Jacob deGrom, who's pitched like an ace with an MLB-leading 1.68 ERA. It would include Noah Syndergaard, whose electric stuff has been overshadowed by injuries. And don't forget about Zack Wheeler or even Steven Matz.

The Mets could roll into 2019 with this group and try to build around it once again. Or they could trade one or more of that quartet for prospects and commit to an unambiguous rebuild.

Both options are fraught with peril. Hence the potential controversy.

   

Philadelphia Phillies: Whether to spend big in free agency

The Philadelphia Phillies were supposed to be a year or two away from contention, a young club loaded with potential but too short on experience.

Instead, they're in second place in the NL East and...wait, does this sound familiar?

Like the Braves, the Phils are laden with up-and-comers and also have payroll space. They could chase a Machado or Harper in free agency.

Then again, it wasn't that long ago that Philadelphia was buried in payroll obligations. The Phillies should be players this offseason, but they should be prudent players.

   

Washington Nationals: The Bryce Harper decision

The time has come. Harper, long the face of the Washington Nationals, is barreling toward free agency.

He isn't having his best season, but he has hit 32 home runs with an .899 OPS and a National League-leading 110 walks. He'll turn 26 in October. He's won NL MVP and Rookie of the Year awards and made six All-Star appearances. He's a generational talent straight out of central casting.

The Nationals could make an effort to re-sign him. He's defined their recent run, even if 2018 appears destined to end in disappointment.

If they do, it'll be an expensive coup for an oft-forgotten franchise but will cripple their payroll. If they don't—if Harper signs with the Yankees or Chicago Cubs or Los Angeles Dodgers or any other team—it'll mark the painful end of an era in the nation's capital.

National League Central

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Chicago Cubs: Should they throw money at another starting pitcher?

Last offseason, the Cubs handed six years and $126 million to right-hander Yu Darvish.

Darvish struggled on the mound and is out for the season after triceps and elbow injuries.

Lesson learned?

Maybe. But Chicago will need to boost a starting corps that's depending on veterans Jon Lester and Jose Quintana, both of whom have wobbled this season, and control artist Kyle Hendricks.

Assuming the Cubbies don't exercise trade-deadline revelation Cole Hamels' $20 million club option for 2019, they'll be searching for high-profile reinforcements. Unless, of course, they plan to count on Darvish—a dicey proposition to say the least.

   

Cincinnati Reds: Whether to trade Scooter Gennett

The Cincinnati Reds were mostly quiet at the trade deadline. Yet the last-place club is in rebuild mode. Who might it deal this offseason?

There are ancillary pieces such as outfielder Billy Hamilton. Then there are game-changers such as second baseman Scooter Gennett.

Gennett has recorded his second straight great season with a .317 average, 22 home runs and an .864 OPS. The 28-year-old is under team control through 2019 and could be a candidate for a sizable extension.

Or the Reds could opt to trade him in a sell-high deal this offseason, which would undoubtedly add several projectable prospects to their system and accelerate their rebuild.

   

Milwaukee Brewers: The quest for an ace

As they hold on to the NL's top wild-card spot and chase the Cubs for National League Central supremacy, the Milwaukee Brewers could use an ace.

Brewers starters rank 12th in the game with a 3.97 ERA. That's a respectable figure, but Milwaukee is relying on a corps led by Chase Anderson, who posted a 5.61 ERA in August.

However 2018 plays out, the Brewers will go shopping for starting pitching this offseason.

Will they swing and miss as they did with Jake Arrieta last offseason? Will they go all-in and grossly overpay? They're swimming with the contenders now, and the waters are choppy.

   

Pittsburgh Pirates: What's the plan?

Last offseason, the Pittsburgh Pirates sold Cole and franchise outfielder Andrew McCutchen. Fans started a petition calling for principal owner Bob Nutting to sell the team.

Then the Pirates played better than expected and shipped outfielder Austin Meadows and hard-throwing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Rays for Archer at the deadline.

Pittsburgh has faded from contention and is in a state of limbo.

Given their limited budget and the top-heavy nature of the NL Central, it's tough to divine what the Bucs will do. Will they get creative and try to contend? Accept reality and fully rebuild? No matter what, more petitions could be forthcoming.

   

St. Louis Cardinals: Should they trade a young arm for offense?

Assuming Alex Reyes returns healthy next season, the St. Louis Cardinals could be blessed with a glut of young (and young-ish) pitchers, including Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, John Gant, Austin Gomber, Dakota Hudson and Ryan Helsley.

St. Louis could roll with that enviable mix, or it could trade from a surplus to boost an offense that ranks 16th in baseball with a .734 OPS.

The Cards are a surprise playoff contender despite having fired manager Mike Matheny in July and made no notable deadline upgrades.

Trading a promising young arm could sting now and down the road, but it could also set them up for contention in 2019.

National League West

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Arizona Diamondbacks: The Paul Goldschmidt decision

As they struggle to get back to the postseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a larger question to answer: What's the future of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt?

The six-time All-Star has spent his entire unimpeachable career with the Snakes and leads the Senior Circuit with a .962 OPS.

Arizona can re-up Goldschmidt for $14.5 million in 2019, a move it'll assuredly make. His free agency looms after that, however, and the Diamondbacks will have to decide whether they want to break the bank.

If Goldy reaches free agency, the decision could be out of Arizona's hands. Multiple deep-pocketed suitors will come calling, and the D-backs might be outbid. An offseason extension, if Goldschmidt is open to it, is likely Arizona's best bet. On the other hand, he'll turn 32 next September and might be a payroll drag on the back end of any long-term pact.

   

Colorado Rockies: Should they spend big on pitching?

Last offseason, the Colorado Rockies handed a three-year, $52 million contract to closer Wade Davis. It was the biggest-ever deal for a relief pitcher on a per-year basis.

Davis hasn't been a disaster; he leads the NL with 39 saves. He's also posted a 4.63 ERA and a 5.22 mark at home.

The Rockies are gunning for the top spot in the National League West. Good for them.

This offseason, though, they'll confront an annual, controversial question: Is it worth it for a team that plays half its games at mile-high altitude to recruit and overpay pitchers whose stats will inevitably decline?

   

Los Angeles Dodgers: The Clayton Kershaw situation

Clayton Kershaw is pitching well. That's good for the Dodgers' 2018 chances and great for the game of baseball.

Going forward, however, it could put L.A. in a corner.

A three-time NL Cy Young Award winner and one-time NL MVP, Kershaw is the greatest pitcher of his generation. He's also had injuries in recent years and never gotten the Dodgers over the championship hump.

After this season, Kershaw can opt out and test free agency, per Cot's Baseball Contracts. Considering he's healthy and once again pitching like an ace's ace, he'll probably do exactly that.

Should the Dodgers re-sign him at any cost? From a public relations stance, the answer is "yes." Yet Kershaw will turn 31 in March and, again, has shown himself to be mortal. Keep an eye on this scintillating storyline.

   

San Diego Padres: Should they spend big again or hang back?

The San Diego Padres have a stacked farm system. Might they also opt to spend in free agency?

The Friars did last offseason, when they gave an eight-year, $144 million contract to first baseman Eric Hosmer. Homser has underperformed, which could make San Diego gun-shy.

Then again, it's easy to imagine the Padres as dark-horse players on the 2018-19 market.

They shouldn't and surely won't decimate their rebuilt MiLB cache. Another unexpected free-agent splurge, however, isn't beyond the realm of possibility...wise or not.

   

San Francisco Giants: Whether to blow it up or go for it again

The San Francisco Giants are limping to the finish line of a failed season. Management tried to augment the roster with veteran pickups, but the Orange and Black dissolved into a puddle of even-year mediocrity.

They'll return next year with familiar faces such as left-hander Madison Bumgarner (assuming the Giants exercise his $12 million team option, per Cot's), shortstop Brandon Crawford and catcher Buster Posey (who's recovering from hip surgery), but barring a radical makeover, they're a sub-.500 also-ran.

Will that makeover involve big spending in free agency or selling off what assets can be sold?

Based on recent history, bet on the former, even if the results indicate it might be time for the Giants to blow it up.

   

All statistics accurate entering Monday and courtesy of Baseball Reference.

   

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