With every springy slam dunk, Kevin Knox, darling of the NBA Summer League, launched himself into the hearts of New York Knicks fans like a grinning, overgrown Golden Retriever puppy.
The Knicks' 18-year-old, No. 9 overall 2018 draft pick impressed with his athleticism and work ethic—attending more games than he played, watching with a more earnest interest than the head coaches breezily munching nachos in the stands and the throngs of schoolchildren desperately trying to get the attention of street clothes-clad Kyrie Irving.
Knox was even named to the All-Don't Take This Too Seriously, Kid Team (aka the All NBA Summer League Team). Over four games, he averaged 32.3 minutes, 21.3 points on 35 percent shooting, 2.3 assists, 6.5 rebounds, one steal and 0.3 blocks.
On July 10, Knicks general manager Scott Perry, per the New York Post's Marc Berman, cautioned that it was "too early to make an assessment after two Summer League games." But he also confessed on ESPN's Get Up on July 25 that he had to keep "pinching himself" to remember Knox is only 18 and praised the rookie's mental approach.
Will Knox's attitude hold up through the season, and will his performance translate to the games against the big boys? And what sort of minutes will he win from new head coach David Fizdale?
Here is our best guess of what Knox’s rookie stat line will be.
Bench-Bound or Better?
There will likely be more room for Knox in the New York lineup than there would have been last season.
If they were to trade Courtney Lee, as Berman reported they might on July 1, the Knicks execs would allow Fizdale to either use Knox as the first backup to Tim Hardaway Jr. at the 3 spot, play both alongside one another or introduce an even more inventive configuration.
When and if Kristaps Porzingis returns from injury this season, the lineup may get shaken up again while KP and new Knick Mario Hezonja jockey for position.
Regardless, the Knicks roster consists mostly of players the casual NBA observer has never heard of, so it's safe to say Knox will enjoy substantial playing time, even if he doesn't perform up to the expectations he created with his summer-league play.
He could easily average 15 minutes per game, and he could get more depending on injuries and whether his defense improves.
Defensive Potential
D is not exactly Knox's calling card. During Summer League, he saw his man but not the ball. So he was mostly reliant on effort and physical assets—quick but a bit clumsy.
While focused on his man, he remained unaware of what was happening behind him—like a cutting man suddenly open for a clean pass that an unwary Knox did not prevent.
None of those weaknesses, however, may hurt his main stat line. Poor help defense could ding his plus/minus and win percentage, but sustained effort will probably keep him on the court, and decent man-on-man defense will add some blocks and steals to the highlight reel.
Aggressive Athleticism
On the other side of the court, Knox's ability is already far more developed.
His perimeter shot was perhaps a bit fickle during summer league, but it's worth the wait. When it did decide to arrive (when set, mostly), he drained rim-thrumming long balls that could give a Knicks fan a warm wave of confidence.
His drives and Eurosteps to the rim were more gangly than graceful, but they got the job done. Knox's barreling to the hoop helter-skelter might not yet be polished or powerful enough to take on the NBA big men, but the possibilities are irresistibly easy to imagine.
Can he finish at the rim consistently? That will be the principal question.
Unrefined or not, Knox's occasional Harlem Globetrotter-esque dunks, in which he appears to leap off a trampoline toward the bucket and swing off the rim, will annoy some teams. And with enough training, he might give them genuine trouble.
Though not particularly a playmaker, Knox is most definitely a true scorer—an assertive and versatile one.
The Reasonable Stat Line
Kevin Knox will have (marginally) better help from his teammates at Madison Square Garden than he did at UNLV's Thomas & Mack Center but will face far stiffer competition. If he has a strong start, his efficiency will drop quickly before making a strong recovery. He is destined for a great year—but probably not Rookie of the Year.
MIN: 20
PTS: 10.5
FG%: 42.5%
3FG: 33.0%
AST: 1.1
REB: 3.2
STL: 0.5
BLK: 0.2
For the sake of Knicks fans everywhere, here's hoping this stat line is wrong and that New York has an immediate All-Star in its starting five. The possibly outlandish-but-far-more-exciting prediction is 26 minutes, 16 points, 47 percent field-goal shooting, two assists, 6.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocks.
Choose whichever set of predictions makes you most unhappy so that you may go forth and rage about it to your friends and associates.
Disagree with Sara Peters on Twitter at 3FromThe7.
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