Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

NBA Players Who Will Never Live Up to Their New Free-Agency Contracts

Kelly Scaletta

Sometimes, the best way to avoid spending too much money is to not have any money to spend. With a number of NBA teams falling into that category during free agency, 2018 hasn't been the worst for bad contracts.

Still, even in a year when most franchises have shown thrift by necessity, there are certain deals teams will be eager to watch expire...eventually. Not all of these deals will look rough right away, but as players fail to live up to expectations—whether because of age, health, one-dimensional play or overall production—fans will ogle their newfound cap space when these contracts are no longer on the books.

Though there are a number of eyebrow-raising contracts around the league, we won't focus on deals that aren't for much money or are only for one year.

Here are six players who will struggle to be worth their dollar amount at some point in their contracts. They're listed in ascending order of how likely their respective teams are to be in states of regret by the end of the deals.

6. LeBron James

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

In a "never thought I'd see the day" highlight of the summer, Los Angeles Lakers fans around the world celebrated as Kobe Bryant's biggest rival agreed to save the franchise from its state of demise.

The idea LeBron James' contract is something the Lakers will eventually regret sounds preposterous right now. Even at age 33, the King just had one of the best years of his career, finishing second in the MVP voting. And sure, he may cover the cost of the Lakers' investment in off-court value alone, but we're here to judge its basketball merits.

There's a decent chance he won't live up to his four-year, $154 million deal

With each subsequent season, that contract will look more precipitous. To put things in perspective, James has already played 54,347 combined playoff and regular-season minutes—the most of anyone through their age-35 season, according to Basketball Reference.

What's remarkable is James has two more seasons to go.

In fact, he's ninth in total minutes played, and he's just 2,931 behind Kobe Bryant for third all-time. Bryant trails only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (66,297) and Karl Malone (62,759). If James averaged the same number of minutes over the next three years as he played this year (3,948), he'd pass Abdul-Jabbar for the all-time lead with nearly a year to go on his contract.

Sure, he's been superhuman his whole career and avoided injuries, but that's part of why he's also played so many minutes. And while he might seem more machine than man at times, he's made of flesh and blood, and there will be a time when he's not the same anymore.

It's probably going to happen within the next four years, and the Lakers will pay $41 million on the last year of that contract.

You can argue that if he brings a title to L.A., it won't matter. But there's a chance he never will. If he doesn't and only adds dead weight the final year or two of the contract, Lakers fans' joy could get exhausted.

5. Chris Paul, Houston Rockets

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

In some ways, the Houston Rockets are already feeling the weight of Chris Paul's contract, which is gargantuan: four years and $159.7 million.

The pact is so large that when you take it and the $24.3 million Paul made last year, the Rockets will have paid him $449 shy of $184 million. That's $21.5 million more than he made in the first 12 years of his career.

But while the Rockets will give him his best paychecks, it's unlikely they'll get his best play. Last season, Paul led the NBA in real plus-minus, according to ESPN.com, meaning that while he was on the court, he was still a phenomenal player. He ranked only 16th in RPM wins, however, which factors playing time into the equation.

Paul has missed over 20 games each of the last two years and was sidelined for Games 6-7 of the Western Conference Finals. It's hard to rely on Paul when he's consistently hurt.

That's the sort of thing that doesn't improve with age. He turned 33 in May and will be 36 when he's making $44.2 million in the last year of his contract. It's hard to believe he'll be worth that.

4. Jerami Grant, Oklahoma City Thunder

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

The Oklahoma City Thunder didn't exactly splurge on Jerami Grant's contract of three years and $27 million, per Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com.

However, that's not how much he's going to cost the Thunder, according to Woj: "Keeping Grant on a $9 million annual salary could cost the Thunder an additional $40 million in luxury tax. His re-signing is a clear message to [Paul] George and All-Star guard Russell Westbrook about ownership's willingness to possibly host the largest payroll in NBA history."

So that $27 million will become $67 million. And that's only part of the problem.

OKC doubled down when it didn't need to. It's already paying Andre Roberson—another defender who can't shoot—$10 million in 2018-19.

The Thunder may have been better off pursuing someone in free agency who can at least produce a modicum of offense without losing much (if anything) on the defensive end. Luc Mbah a Moute, who played last season for the Rockets at the league minimum, is still available, for example.

3. Avery Bradley, Los Angeles Clippers

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

The Lost Angeles Clippers signed Avery Bradley to a two-year, $25 million contract, and I have to wonder why.

Bradley has a reputation of being a three-and-D wing, and that's what the Clips are paying him to be. The question is: Does he deserve his reputation?

Consider his defensive real plus-minus, year by year, per ESPN.com:

So, while he's been a good defender in the past, he regressed each of the prior three seasons before 2017-18. That's not what you might have expected, because when you watch Bradley's engaged on-ball defense, he's spectacular and able to stay in front of his man.

Admittedly, last year was weird. He played for both the Detroit Pistons and Clippers—not to mention came back from injury. But the bigger issue is that a lot of what happens on defense takes place off the ball, and he tends to get lost on team defense, especially since his height (6'2") makes him susceptible to spot-up shooters.

There are two ways of looking at this. Either the numbers aren't doing him justice and it's a case of "this is why you need the eye test," or it's a case of the eye test.

Now, Bradley does shoot a decent percentage from three (36.9 last season), but he's only made two treys per game once in his career (2016-17).

His career percentage from two is only 47.2. His career effective field-goal percentage is a subpar 49.6 (the league average is usually around 52.0), and his career true shooting percentage is only 51.6 (league average is around 55.0).

He only averaged 2.0 assists and 2.5 rebounds last year, too. So it's not like he's making up for that in other areas. He's not going to live up to his contract.

2. Doug McDermott, Indiana Pacers

Jesse D. Garrabrant/Getty Images

Doug McDermott is the opposite of Grant.

He can stretch the court like nobody's business, but his defense is so horrible that it's almost impossible to keep him on the court despite his ability to get the ball in the bucket.

His minus-1.76 DRPM ranked 468th out of 521 players.

Increasingly, teams attack bad players on the court.

That happened with McDermott while he was with the Chicago Bulls, Thunder, New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks. He keeps putting the ball in the bucket. His effective field-goal percentage was a respectable 55.7, but the question remains: Who is he going to guard?

Signing McDermott wasn't a bad idea for the Indiana Pacers. Signing him for three years at $7.3 million per was, though.

You have to wonder if anyone was trying to outbid them, and second, if they were, why not let them win?

Come next summer, McDermott's contract could be the type of deal a team tries to move so it can create cap space, which usually means giving up a pick.

1. Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Wojnarowski reported Zach LaVine is the proud owner of a four-year, $78 million contract. The Sacramento Kings first made the offer, but the Chicago Bulls stepped in and matched it.

It is the one contract of the summer that is emphatically horrible.

The Kings tried to Kangz, but the Bulls front office said, "Hold my Chicago-brewed beer."

Nick Friedell of ESPN.com pointed to the possible motivation, tweeting: "The Butler deal is a sunk cost. It's over. Matching the LaVine offer sheet just because you don't want to lose an asset from a past trade isn't good business if the price is too high."

Friedell was referring to the fact LaVine was one of the three assets the Bulls got in return for four-time All-Star Jimmy Butler and Justin Patton last summer—a trade for which John Paxson and Gar Forman were criticized. Ironically, the other two parts of that trade, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen, have acquitted themselves well and made the swap look better.

Now, though, almost as if to prove they were right, the Bulls gave LaVine almost $20 million per year. Even if LaVine evolves into the playmaker and scorer they hope he can be (he averaged 18.9 points per game on 57.6 percent true shooting in 2016-17 before he tore his ACL), he still has major issues on the other end. His DRPM ranked 490th.

That isn't just a statistic, either. The eye test backs it up. His inability to stay in front of ball-handlers is rivaled only by his failure to pay attention when he's not the point of attack. Remember, these are problems even Tom Thibodeau couldn't fix while LaVine was with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

LaVine can make incredible plays on offense, but it's doubtful he'll live up to this contract.

   

Statistics via Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted. Contract information via Spotrac.

   

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