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Jabari Parker and the PFs Most Likely to Be Traded During NBA Offseason

Dan Favale

Scores of big names are going to be scattered throughout the NBA's rumor mill this summer—just not at the power forward position.

Oh, make no mistake, there will be some. There's always some. But the list of notable trade candidates is appreciably less punchy at the 4 spot than any of the three other positions thus far scoped out:

This star-power deficit says more about the league than anything. Positions are harder to define, and power forwards exist within increasingly gray areas. A bunch of them are glorified wings who see ample time at the 3, while anyone bearing the slightest resemblance to a traditional big typically sponges up minutes at the 5.

In many ways, then, the power forward slot is something of a layover position. That considerably dwindles down the field of prospective chopping-block members. Bake in a handful of immovable contracts along with a few untouchables, and the player pool is diluted down even further.

Our mission is not a hopeless one, though. Using Cleaning The Glass' possession data, we can isolate which players qualified for power forward designations during the regular season. (To further drive home the initial point: Kevin Love isn't one of them; he registers as a 5.) 

From there, we'll follow anecdotal bread crumbs and decide which 4s are most likely to be relocated. These inclusions have not all been linked to concrete rumors, and most will not have new homes by the start of next season. But depth-chart logjams, contract situations, cap sheets, rebuilding timelines and the need for roster upgrades have left their futures decidedly up in the air.

Longer-Shot Trade Candidates Worth Monitoring

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Carmelo Anthony, Oklahoma City Thunder (early termination option)

Carmelo Anthony didn't exactly endear himself to the Thunder's long-term plans during his exit interview, per ESPN.com's Royce Young:

"I think the player that they wanted me to be and needed me to be was for the sake of this season. As far as being effective as that type of player, I don't think I can be effective as that type of player. I think I was willing to accept that challenge in that role, but I think I bring a little bit more to the game as far as being more knowledgeable and what I still can do as a basketball player."

Neither Anthony nor the Thunder has a clear way out of this marriage. He's not passing up the $27.9 million he's owed next season. That would be absurd. It'll take him three years to recoup that value in this summer's market.

Finding a trade partner to take on his money is mostly out of the question. Expiring deals can always be rerouted, but no team is swallowing Anthony's cap hit without sending back dead weight in return. Unless the Thunder are inexplicably interested in longer-team contracts for Ryan Anderson, Serge Ibaka or Evan Turner, they're better off holding serve and hoping that coaxes Melo into surrendering a few bills during buyout talks.

           

Tobias Harris, Los Angeles Clippers

Giving head coach Doc Rivers an extension suggests the Clippers are against blowing their core to smithereens and rebuilding from scratch. But they could easily change their tune if both Avery Bradley and DeAndre Jordan (player option) bounce in free agency.

Whatever the prompt, steering into a reset would demand Los Angeles gauge Tobias Harris' value. He turns 26 in July, so he's young enough to survive the transition. But he enters free agency next summer, and that contract isn't one a rebuilding squad should want to bankroll.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will hit restricted free agency in 2019 if he doesn't hash out an extension with the Nets. Spencer Dinwiddie and D'Angelo Russell (restricted) will be up for raises as well. Brooklyn isn't going to re-sign all three of them. It'll cost too much. 

Dinwiddie and Russell overlap with other skill sets on the roster more than Hollis-Jefferson, but the persisting absence of three-point range caps his offensive ceiling. If the Nets cannot work out a team-friendly extension or don't see him expanding upon his mid-range game, it makes sense to shop him rather than chance an overpriced offer sheet next July.

The caveat: They probably won't kick around this idea until the lead-up to the February deadline, when they'll have a better hold on Hollis-Jefferson's development and potential price point.

         

Serge Ibaka, Toronto Raptors

Moving the two years and $45 million remaining on Ibaka's contract was always going to be difficult. Trading him now, after he no-showed through his final six playoff tilts, feels impossible without attaching sweeteners the Raptors don't have. 

         

Marvin Williams, Charlotte Hornets

Paying Marvin Williams $29.1 million over the next two years isn't terrible. Nor is it favorable. It just is. 

Forced to choose, Williams leans more toward obstacle than asset. Packaging him with Kemba Walker is the Hornets' best shot at moving him without including other buffers, and they'll no doubt be looking to use Nicolas Batum (three years, $76.7 million) as the add-on before anyone else.

Dragan Bender/Jared Dudley/Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns

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Most mock drafts have the Phoenix Suns taking Deandre Ayton with the No. 1 pick. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman has them selecting Luka Doncic in his latest jam, but ESPN.com's Jonathan Givony and The Athletic's Sam Vecenie roll with Arizona's 7'1" big man.

Drew Packham of NBA.com compiled a consensus draft based on a bunch of different mocks. Ayton went to Phoenix in that one, too.

Choosing him demands the Suns tinker with their frontcourt rotation. They're already bogged down by an excess of names, albeit not talent, and he only complicates the logjam. 

Passing on Ayton doesn't necessarily mitigate the redundancy, either. The Suns are smitten by Clint Capela (restricted) and, prior to the lottery, planned to make a run at him this summer, according to Rockets Wire's Kelly Iko. They reek of a team trying to soup up its frontline.

Renouncing Alex Len and waiving Alan Williams mitigates some of the redundancy, but not all of it. And though Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss and Jared Dudley logged most of their court time at the 4, they exacerbate's Phoenix's overlap.

Josh Jackson and T.J. Warren should be getting burn at power forward, even if only in measured doses. Bender's size and limited pull-up chops make him a better fit for the 5. Chriss is in the same boat thanks to his fine offensive arsenal.

Bender has the most value of the three after drilling nearly 38 percent of his threes before the All-Star break, but all of them serve their own purpose. Chriss will seduce at least a couple of teams with his vertical pop, and Dudley's expiring salary profiles as a good blockbuster anchor. 

If maximizing their cap situation is the Suns' priority, Dudley's their odd man out. If they're more bent on clearing out minutes in the frontcourt, either for Ayton, Capela, their small-ball 4s or someone else, Chriss' slothy developmental curve renders him more expendable than Bender. 

Ryan Anderson, Houston Rockets

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Age: 30

2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 9.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 43.1 percent shooting, 38.6 percent three-point shooting

Advanced Stats: 12.6 player efficiency rating (PER), 7.02 total points added (TPA), minus-1.09 real plus-minus (RPM)

Contract Details: two years, $41.7 million

Ryan Anderson devolved into unplayable basically once the postseason tipped off. With the exception of netting a combined 35-plus minutes in Games 3 and 4 during the first round, he was used less than sparingly. Despite coping with a sprained ankle at the end of the regular season and into the playoffs, head coach Mike D'Antoni made it clear his absence wasn't related to injury.

Rerouting this player, at this price point, isn't something the Rockets can just do. Anderson is useful during the regular season. He has no problem camping out in the parking lot to bend a defense's coverage. His average shot distance this year was 20.4 feet, and he placed fifth in total attempts beyond 28 feet from the basket.

That means only so much when he's unable to stay on the floor in certain series matchups or generally one of the first ones to get clipped from D'Antoni's rotation. For Houston to pawn him off on another team, it will take sweeteners. Plural. The type of carrot they won't want to dangle.

LeBron James is the elephant in this room. Houston remains a trendy destination for him among bar-stool chatterboxes and in specific reports with varying degrees of conviction. The Rockets don't have cap space, or even an obvious path to get it, but as ESPN.com's Zach Lowe said on a recent episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, that really doesn't matter:

"Everyone says 'I can't get LeBron.' 'They don't have cap space.' 'It's impossible.' Whatever it is, Daryl Morey  has seven different pathways already set to get the cap space or to get LeBron somehow, whether it's him opting into his player option, which no one expected Paul to do.

"Like, the fact that that's been out there for a year, and is 100 percent something that the Rockets would obviously be interested in doing—they know how to do it. It might cost them an arm and a leg in terms of draft picks and all that. But they have a way to do it, otherwise it would never be out there."

Lacing Anderson's money with however many future first-rounders might be an all-in play the Rockets only consider if it means getting James. Or maybe not. They don't have the resources to improve if they fall shy of a title. Their cap sheet is luxury-tax bound.

Stomaching the cost of flipping Anderson for a non-return or a cheaper contract is their ticket to sidestepping that financial lockup. Shedding his money, independent of James scenarios, could arm them with the non-taxpayer's mid-level exception—an $8.6 million asset that will be atypically useful in this summer's penny-pinching market.

Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Age: 28

2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 5.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, 51.4 percent shooting

Advanced Stats: 17.4 PER, minus-20.46 TPA, minus-1.46 RPM

Contract Details: 1 year, $13.8 million

It feels like Kenneth Faried has been up for grabs since he first signed a four-year, $50 million extension with the Denver Nuggets in 2014. That he's still on the roster entering the final season of his deal is equal parts surprising, impressive and telltale of the NBA's shifting priorities.

Tweener bigs who don't protect the rim, hold their own when defending in space or shoot threes are something worse than afterthoughts. Faried has seen the league pass him by, and splitting time at center hasn't helped him catch up or remain part of the Nuggets rotation. He made his last appearance on Feb. 1 and received spin in just seven total games after Dec. 15.

That trend isn't tracking toward change in 2018-19. Denver's frontcourt carousel remains over max capacity, and Faried is still the same niche contributor—a high-motor floor-runner with at-times explosive finishing and plus rebounding.

Mason Plumlee draws the line on what type of non-shooter the Nuggets can play. And he at least creates space with his screens and passing. Faried won't ever supersede him, so a return to the chopping block seems imminent.

The Nuggets tried moving him to no avail at the February deadline, per Altitude Sports' Chris Dempsey. They'll redouble those efforts over the offseason. They may have no choice.

Carrying Will Barton's cap hold will leave Denver with a tick more than $118 million in commitments if Darrell Arthur and Wilson Chandler exercise their player options. That net cost will then explode if, as expected, Nikola Jokic (team option) receives a max deal.

Tack on a $25.3 million starting salary for him, and the Nuggets are looking at a payroll north of $140 million—well past the $123 million luxury-tax threshold. Paying that much to float the status quo of a lottery team doesn't look great, even though a base nucleus of Barton, Jokic, Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray could wind up being worth the trouble.  

Dangling another pick or prospect should be enough to lop off Faried's expiring salary and gives the Nuggets an outside hope of ducking the tax without making other moves. And should they resign themselves to financing an enormous payroll, his contract becomes great salary filler for a needle-nudging trade.

(Arthur, Faried and a second-rounder for Kent Bazemore anyone?)

Skal Labissiere, Sacramento Kings

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

Age: 22

2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 8.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.4 steals, 44.8 percent shooting, 35.3 percent shooting 

Advanced Stats: 14.3 PER, minus-63.74 TPA, minus-3.19 RPM

Contract Details: 3 years, $7.3 million ($3.5 million qualifying offer for 2019-20)

Skal Labissiere isn't technically someone the Sacramento Kings should be in a rush to trade. He has two years left at rookie-scale salary, and their overcrowded frontcourt includes two veteran bigs, in Kosta Koufos and Zach Randolph, who aren't must-play options on a rebuilding squad.

At the same time, an uninspiring sophomore campaign prevents Labissiere from earning a must-play label himself. His development flat-lined after a detonative end to the 2016-17 season. He battled ankle and shoulder injuries in 2017-18 and didn't wow with efficient scoring when gift wrapped extra playing time at the turn of the calendar.

Labissiere will invariably need to see most of his minutes at the 5 if his off-the-bounce and outside games don't come along. The Kings don't have the flexibility to facilitate that transition.

Willie Cauley-Stein is a definitively more useful player who mans the same position, and playing them together hasn't yielded encouraging returns. They were a net negative together in 2016-17, and Sacramento was outscored by 7.6 points per 100 possessions whenever they co-opted the frontcourt this year.

Carving out any sort of role whatsoever next season could also become an issue for Labissiere depending on how the draft goes. If the Suns take Luka Doncic at No. 1, the Kings' decision at No. 2 is made for them; they'll take Deandre Ayton.

Things get super interesting if Phoenix follows convention and rolls with Ayton. Sacramento isn't a lock to choose Doncic in that scenario, according to Givony. And the most likely alternatives in that spot include Marvin Bagley III, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Mohamed Bamba—two combo bigs and a center.

Throw in a healthy Harry Giles, plus some small-ball 4 minutes for Justin Jackson, and Labissiere could fall out of favor with the Kings posthaste, if he hasn't already.

Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Age: 23

2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 12.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 48.2 percent shooting, 38.3 percent shooting

Advanced Stats: 17.1 PER, s-26.83 TPA, minus-2.89 RPM

Contract Details: $4.3 million qualifying offer (restricted free agent)

Giannis Antetokounmpo definitely disagrees with this Jabari Parker drop.

"Jabari ain't going nowhere," he said, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Matt Velazquez. "He's going to be here and he's going to be ready for next season."

Will he really, though?

Almost half of Parker's career thus far has been lost to two ACL injuries. Signing him to a long-term deal would be a huge risk—particularly when he's such an iffy fit beside Antetokounmpo. Check out the Milwaukee Bucks' net rating with both players on the court these past few years:

Milwaukee should eventually survive on offense during Antetokounmpo-Parker minutes. But the defense is only going to get worse. Antetokounmpo is best served at the 4—aka Parker's only position. Slotting him at the 3 is pleading for disaster, and he'll get destroyed at the 5 unless he improves his roving rim protection.

Funneling money into a player who doesn't complement your top star is franchise malpractice. Especially when your cap sheet is so complicated. The Bucks don't have to worry about the luxury tax this season, but it becomes a major concern next summer when Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon (restricted) and Khris Middleton (player option) hit the open market.

Signing and trading Parker has to be on the table. It should save the Bucks money and ensures they're not losing him for nothing. Yes, these transactions are rare. But they're due for a comeback. At least two-thirds of the league won't have money to spend this summer. Sign-and-trades expand that list of landing spots to include teams without space.

Would the Utah Jazz consider a dual sign-and-trade for Derrick Favors? What about the Clippers with DeAndre Jordan? Might the Miami Heat consider a package built around Justise Winslow and Hassan Whiteside? 

Whatever's out there, the Bucks should take it upon themselves to find out.

            

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball ReferenceSalary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.

   

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