To get anything done in NBA free agency, you need a will and a way. Every team wants to improve, but having the means to make it happen matters more than anything else.
This summer, few clubs tout much financial flexibility. Of the nine teams that could realistically clear significant cap space, six missed the playoffs: the Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings.
The Nets project to have the least cash among that group (around $15 million), which isn't enough to get anything of significance done. As a result, they'll most likely wait until 2019 to make their big splash.
The other five squads are primed to take advantage of market scarcity and get their trajectories angling up and out of the lottery.
That might mean chasing unrestricted free agents, taking on bad money to accumulate assets or even throwing a wrench into the competition's plans by handing fat offer sheets to restricted free agents.
Irrelevant for the past several months, these five teams could soon take center stage in free agency.
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks have never been big on keeping their powder dry. Though they've rarely hit the mark, they often fire away in free agency.
"We have the cap room," owner Mark Cuban told reporters in early April. "That's why we have it—to use it. There's no reason to save it.
With Dirk Nowitzki planning to return for one more year and a few pricey wings (Wesley Mathews and Harrison Barnes) taking up a significant chunk of the Mavericks' cap space, this offseason figures to be no different.
Dallas isn't built to win now, but it is built to play competitively. That means it's more likely to spend what it has than it is to hold off and rebuild.
The Mavs can carve out nearly $24 million in cap space by renouncing all their free agents. They aren't likely to cut ties with everyone—Doug McDermott and Yogi Ferrell are both worth keeping—but a free agent looking for a stable environment, established professional peers and good coaching could see the Mavs as an appealing option. Plus, Dennis Smith Jr. could make the leap in his second season, so there's upside here.
Adding the likes of Derrick Favors, Avery Bradley or even DeMarcus Cousins (if the market sours on him enough to get the Mavs into buying range) could result in a return to playoff contention next season.
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls could renounce everyone, let all of their free agents walk and get to $41.5 million in cap space this summer. But a more realistic projection has them around $26 million, according to Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors.
In any case, they don't appear inclined to blow that cash.
"The assumption in league circles is the Bulls will wait until 2019 to make their big move when players like Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard and Kyrie Irving could be on the market, and might consider signing with the Bulls after watching another year of development from LaVine, Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn," Mark Schanowski of NBC Sports Chicago reported.
There's more than one way to make a splash in free agency, though. A rebuilding team can set itself up nicely by absorbing another team's bad money with draft considerations attached.
So if, say, the Portland Trail Blazers want to ditch someone from the Evan Turner/Meyers Leonard bin of regrettable deals, they could find a taker in the Bulls. Chicago is a long way from competing, and it doesn't get to roll its cap space over. It's better to stockpile assets that'll help out down the line by taking on someone else's problem in the near term.
Not enough teams in clear rebuilding mode adopt this strategy, likely because it telegraphs to a fanbase that the team isn't doing all it can to win games. But Chicago would be wise to go for it as long as it doesn't compromise 2019 cap space. That's when Omer Asik (early termination option) and Robin Lopez come off the books and open up some serious room.
Sacramento Kings
It's tough to make predictions about a team that may not be a rational actor.
Kangz gonna Kangz, in other words.
When the Sacramento Kings have made decisions in the past about how to utilize cap space, they've generally opted to spend it—often frivolously or in a manner lacking foresight (Kangz!).
The Kings can set aside as much as $25 million to burn, although that number likely will be closer to $22 million, per Danny Leroux of The Athletic. In the wake of their decision to sign George Hill, Zach Randolph and Vince Carter last summer, we should assume they're ready to strike the match again.
Working in their favor this time, ironically, is the fact that whatever extra wins their prospective free-agent additions produce won't hurt the team's draft position in 2019...because the Kings don't own their first-rounder.
Tanking should have been the goal this past season. In 2018-19, it won't help.
That the absence of a lottery spot counts as a silver lining says most of what you need to know about Sacramento's approach to roster-building.
The Kings always make short-term moves, and they'll likely view this summer's lack of ready-to-spend teams as an opportunity to chase free agents who otherwise wouldn't consider them as a viable landing spot. If Sacramento doesn't overpay someone in free agency, it'll be a surprise.
Atlanta Hawks
Asset-rich and primed to have as much as $27.8 million in space (depending on whether Mike Muscala and Dewayne Dedmon opt out), the Atlanta Hawks can do just about whatever they want this summer.
Their recent pattern of accumulating draft picks, highlighted by last offseason's acquisition of Jamal Crawford with a first-rounder attached, indicates a deliberate approach. But the Hawks could also be a real mischief-maker.
There are several restricted free agents set to hit the market—Aaron Gordon, Jabari Parker, Clint Capela and Julius Randle, to name four—and Atlanta is well-positioned to fire off an offer sheet that could make those players' incumbent teams sweat. It's tricky to find a number that isn't a gross overpay but one that also forces a tough conversation about whether to match or not. It might be more art than science.
The Hawks can tinker, though, and they can get aggressive with almost any big name on the restricted market. This early in the rebuild, Atlanta isn't in a position where any of its core is set in stone. If you can grab Gordon or Randle at below-market rates because their current teams are ready to move on, you do it and worry about positional fit and distribution of playing time with Taurean Prince and John Collins later.
The Hawks seem shrewd and focused on the long haul. But it's possible they'll jump on an opportunity and accelerate the rebuild timeline.
Los Angeles Lakers
Does two-way dynamo, five-time All-Star and obviously L.A.-bound Paul George count as a splash? And if he does, what if he's only the first part of a two-step plan to rapidly return the Lakers to prominence?
L.A. has been working toward this summer (and its two max-salary slots) for a while, so you'd better believe there'll be some cash flying around in July. The mechanics aren't even all that complicated.
B/R's Dan Favale broke it down at the end of March:
"Shipping Jordan Clarkson to the Cleveland Cavaliers left them within arm's length of carving out two max-contract slots. If they sweeten the pot enough to dump the two years and $36.8 million left on Luol Deng's deal, they can, hypothetically speaking, sign both Paul George and LeBron James without renouncing Julius Randle (restricted)."
James feels like a long shot, or at least a longer one than he would have been if the Indiana Pacers had taken care of business and eliminated his Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round. Regardless, the Lakers are almost certainly signing George and can get involved in talks with Cousins, poke around on a Kawhi Leonard trade or throw money at virtually anyone else they want.
There's no way to know what the Lakers will do this summer aside from sign George to a maximum contract, but there's no doubt they're going to do something. No team is primed to make more noise than they are.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference. Salary information via Spotrac.
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