After reflecting on first two days of the 2018 NFL draft, we'd love to see eight immediate do-overs to help teams improve their draft hauls.
Some of the do-overs are a result of overvaluing certain positions and skill sets. Others simply stand out as panic decisions.
Having a consistent process that properly values positions and players compared to the rest of the league is the only way to build a sustainable winner. At least in these eight situations, teams failed to accomplish that goal.
New York Giants: Wait to Take a Running Back
In a time when running backs are as devalued as any position in the NFL, New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman selected Saquon Barkley second overall. Gettleman also drafted running back Christian McCaffrey last year as part of the Carolina Panthers front office.
Barkley will immediately become one of the highest-paid backs in the NFL, with his $20.8 million signing bonus the second-highest of all time at the position, per Spotrac (h/t Mark Wogenrich of the Morning Call). There's little question Barkley will be a massive upgrade for the Giants, but picking a back this high is outdated. Also consider there were multiple potential quarterbacks of the future and high-caliber defensive end Bradley Chubb available.
The Giants could've landed Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, Kerryon Johnson or Derrius Guice in the second round. Oregon's Royce Freeman slid all the way to 71st overall, too.
Instead of capitalizing on the class depth and acquiring a quality back on Day 2, the Giants paid an unnecessary premium. Waiting until the third round to take a pass-rusher (Georgia's Lorenzo Carter) may prove to be a mistake as the team fights for the 2018 playoffs. Pairing Bradley Chubb with Freeman would've been a more effective usage of assets.
Buffalo Bills: Take the Best Pocket Passer in the Class
There was predraft speculation the Buffalo Bills would have to move nearly heaven and earth to acquire their quarterback of choice, but the franchise did well to move up twice and land two highly regarded prospects in quarterback Josh Allen and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. But while they gave us less value in their trade-up to No. 7 than they would have had they moved all the way up to No. 2, their decision to select Allen is especially polarizing, and Josh Rosen would be the pick in this immediate do-over.
Rosen is one of the best pocket passers of the last decade, comparing favorably to 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff. He is an elite intermediate passer who excelled in the red zone and when pressured.
Meanwhile, Allen struggled with his accuracy, even beyond his completion percentage. While he can make amazing deep passes even when off-balance, he struggles to hit easy throws on a routine basis. He's a major project who is more likely to be replaced by the end of his contract than extended.
Both players have a college injury history. Rosen has suffered from concussions, and Allen had a badly broken collarbone. But on the field, there's no question Rosen would help the Bills this season, and it's likely he'll be a better player throughout his career based on his high floor and mental edge in critical moments. Allen wasn't a standout player against his collegiate competition, so it's unlikely he becomes one in the NFL.
New Orleans Saints: Don't Mortgage the Future for a Project Pick
While most teams tend to hang onto all their future early-round picks, the New Orleans Saints have gone the opposite way in the last two years. Trading their 2018 second-round pick in a move up for running back Alvin Kamara was a brilliant decision. This year's trade doesn't look quite as promising, as it cost them their 2018 fifth-round pick and 2019 first-round pick to move up to No. 14 overall from No. 27. They selected edge-rusher Marcus Davenport from UTSA.
That was an incredible price to pay for the athletic project, especially when it seemed head coach Sean Payton may have zeroed in on Lamar Jackson as his quarterback of the future. Moving such valuable assets for a non-quarterback is a huge risk. Davenport filled a need, but he needs considerable refinement before he'll be a reliable star on the edge.
NFL.com draft expert Lance Zierlein's grade on Davenport reflected that he has a "chance to become" an NFL starter. He noted that he plays slow and his instincts are lacking despite his combine performance.
That also showed at the Senior Bowl, where Davenport played with a high pad level. He can develop, but considering that edge-rusher Harold Landry fell to the 41st pick, the Saints could have extracted more value by staying patient or moving up for Jackson. Davenport will have to be a multitime Pro Bowler to prove worthy of this trade.
Oakland Raiders: Don't Trust Tom Cable
Coaches sometimes unfairly take blame, but offensive line coach Tom Cable was famously the architect of one of the league's worst lines in Seattle. The Oakland Raiders hired him despite that, and they also doubled down by taking highly athletic but completely unrefined tackles for Cable to develop.
First-round pick Kolton Miller was part of a UCLA line that couldn't keep Josh Rosen upright. Third-round pick Brandon Parker was a better value and won't be relied upon until at least 2019, but there's no reason to have faith in Cable being the coach to get the most out of him. Both rely heavily on their physical gifts to recover because their pass sets lack any type of coordination and balance.
The Seahawks devoted three picks in the first two rounds to their offensive line with Cable in tow, and yet it remained an abysmal unit. The Raiders have a much higher floor considering what he inherited, but it's more likely that neither of these players hit their ceilings with Cable trying to teach them the fundamentals.
Baltimore Ravens: Build with Modern Athletes
The Baltimore Ravens' draft approach from the first two days was inconsistent. While moving back into the first round for Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson gives them a clear future face of the franchise, taking 25-year-old tight end Hayden Hurst, mammoth offensive tackle Orlando Brown and a second tight end in Mark Andrews gave them a hodgepodge of average or worse athletes to surround Jackson with.
Instead of maximizing Jackson's background in a West Coast offense with spread playmakers, the Ravens will be more qualified to play in 10 personnel.
Taking Hurst so high and using a third-round pick on Brown were both questionable choices. Hurst had just three touchdowns in college, and tight ends usually take years to become impactful NFL players. Worse yet, they passed on a dynamic receiver who was ready to make an impact this season in Calvin Ridley and a big, developmental receiver in Courtland Sutton who could blossom into a star.
Brown was a great collegiate tackle but also had a historically bad athletic profile that should've ruled him out for anything more than a Day 3 flier for a team. Kent Lee Platte of SB Nation pointed out that there's never been a player with Brown's measurables in the combine to have any success in the NFL. Brown's lack of athleticism could hinder the creativity of a Jackson-led offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Take Players Who Can Help Now
It took a few years for the Pittsburgh Steelers to correct their trend of drafting players with severe athletic limitations, and they hit big last year with T.J. Watt as a trend-breaker. But they may have skewed too hard this year, reaching for a middle-round safety with Terrell Edmunds in the first round. Two of their next three picks also figure to be more limited contributors early on; they selected quarterback Mason Rudolph and offensive tackle Chuks Okorafor in the third round.
Rudolph and Okorafor likely won't see the field for a few years as they're set as backups, and Edmunds was possibly the biggest reach of the first round. Zierlein compared him to former Seahawks corner DeShawn Shead, calling him a third- or fourth-round pick.
While Edmunds has drawn athletic comparisons to recent draft hits like Eric Reid, Keanu Neal, Josh Jones and Deone Bucannon, his tape wasn't nearly as good as any of theirs, so it'll be a process for him to maximize that upside.
Second-round pick James Washington was a good value, and his deep presence will terrify opponents. But it's hard to see the rest of this class helping the Steelers compete for a Super Bowl in 2018 and maybe 2019.
Cleveland Browns: Be More Opportunistic at No. 33
There's no question that analytics haven't left Berea, Ohio, as general manager John Dorsey has drafted players with a similar profile to former general manager Sashi Brown's selections in his two years. While there's not a major gripe about the team's selecting quarterback Baker Mayfield and cornerback Denzel Ward in the first round, or even running back Nick Chubb at 35, the Browns missed a great opportunity at No. 33.
They selected Nevada's Austin Corbett, who was announced as a guard, which makes sense considering his short arm length. But the Browns have two of the highest-paid guards in the league—Kevin Zeitler and Joel Bitonio—under contract for multiple years.
Browns assistant general manager Elliot Wolf said the team is hopeful he can play tackle because of the extra contractual incentive to save money at the position, but it remains to be seen as to whether he can do that.
Players on the board who would have been more likely to help the Browns in the next two years included Harold Landry, Courtland Sutton and Josh Jackson. Even Pittsburgh's Brian O'Neill made more sense as a natural left tackle prospect than Corbett, and O'Neill went later in the second round to the Minnesota Vikings.
Ultimately, it's not going to make or break Cleveland's draft if Corbett has to sit two years to get a chance. It depends more on Mayfield and how he plays when he gets the chance. But Dorsey and company should have addressed a need and worried about depth later.
Indianapolis Colts: Get Better Value
The Indianapolis Colts beefed up their trenches with two mauling guards and two defensive ends. Their selections in the second round were underwhelming, though, specifically linebacker Darius Leonard and defensive end Tyquan Lewis.
If the Colts had a do-over on these two picks, they should go after a more refined linebacker than Leonard, who didn't warrant a second-round selection. He'll have a massive transition to the NFL from South Carolina State and is a projected 4-3 outside linebacker, which isn't a premium position.
Lewis had a solid career at Ohio State and will be an asset on third downs as a nickel rusher at tackle. But there were better players available, including former Ohio State teammate Sam Hubbard and Florida State's Josh Sweat. Lewis lacks any dynamic athletic traits and is a Day 3 talent.
The Colts need difference-makers from their early-round picks, not projected rotational contributors.
Read 0 Comments
Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation